An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

A synergistic and extensible framework for multi-agent system verification

Recently there has been a proliferation of tools and languages for modeling multi-agent systems (MAS). Verification tools, correspondingly, have been developed to check properties of these systems. Most MAS verification tools, however, have their own input language and often specialize in one verification technology, or only support checking a specific type of property. In this work we present an extensible framework that leverages mainstream verification tools to successfully reason about various types of properties. We describe the verification of models specified in the Brahms agent modeling language to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach. We chose Brahms because it is used to model real instances of interactions between pilots, air-traffic controllers, and automated systems at NASA. Our framework takes as input a Brahms model along with a Java implementation of its semantics. We then use Java PathFinder to explore all possible behaviors of the model and, also, produce a generalized intermediate representation that encodes these behaviors. The intermediate representation is automatically transformed to the input language of mainstream model checkers, including PRISM, SPIN, and NuSMV allowing us to check different types of properties. We validate our approach on a model that contains key elements from the Air France Flight 447 acciden

The influence of ocean variations on the climate of Ireland

The influence of the ocean circulation on the climate of Ireland is more subtle than it first appears. Temperatures in Ireland are warmer than similar Pacific maritime climates. It is heat - carried primarily in the Atlantic overturning circulation - released over the Atlantic that provides this additional warmth. We investigate variations in Irish climate using long-term station-based time series. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) explains over 90% of the pronounced decadal temperature and summer precipitation variation. Understanding the impact of these ocean variations when interpreting long climate records, particularly in the context of a changing climate, is crucial

Increased seawater temperature increases the abundance and alters the structure of natural Vibrio populations associated with the coral Pocillopora damicornis.

Rising seawater temperature associated with global climate change is a significant threat to coral health and is linked to increasing coral disease and pathogen-related bleaching events. We performed heat stress experiments with the coral Pocillopora damicornis, where temperature was increased to 31°C, consistent with the 2-3°C predicted increase in summer sea surface maxima. 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing revealed a large shift in the composition of the bacterial community at 31°C, with a notable increase in Vibrio, including known coral pathogens. To investigate the dynamics of the naturally occurring Vibrio community, we performed quantitative PCR targeting (i) the whole Vibrio community and (ii) the coral pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus. At 31°C, Vibrio abundance increased by 2-3 orders of magnitude and V. coralliilyticus abundance increased by four orders of magnitude. Using a Vibrio-specific amplicon sequencing assay, we further demonstrated that the community composition shifted dramatically as a consequence of heat stress, with significant increases in the relative abundance of known coral pathogens. Our findings provide quantitative evidence that the abundance of potential coral pathogens increases within natural communities of coral-associated microbes as a consequence of rising seawater temperature and highlight the potential negative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on coral reef ecosystems

The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes

PublishedThe Supplement related to this article is available online at doi:10.5194/bg-13-223-2016-supplement.We modeled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico with a process-based approach. We used different available products (satellite data, field measurements, models and flux towers) to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country at three different time frames: present (defined as the period 2000–2005), the past century (1901–2000) and the remainder of this century (2010–2100). Our estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) for the country was 2137 ± 1023 TgC yr−1 and a total C stock of 34 506 ± 7483 TgC, with 20 347 ± 4622 TgC in vegetation and 14 159 ± 3861 in the soil. Contrary to other current estimates for recent decades, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink over the period 1990–2009 (+31 TgC yr−1) and that C accumulation over the last century amounted to 1210 ± 1040 TgC. We attributed this sink to the CO2 fertilization effect on GPP, which led to an increase of 3408 ± 1060 TgC, while both climate and land use reduced the country C stocks by −458 ± 1001 and −1740 ± 878 TgC, respectively. Under different future scenarios, the C sink will likely continue over the 21st century, with decreasing C uptake as the climate forcing becomes more extreme. Our work provides valuable insights on relevant driving processes of the C cycle such as the role of drought in drylands (e.g., grasslands and shrublands) and the impact of climate change on the mean residence time of soil C in tropical ecosystems.The lead author (G. Murray-Tortarolo) thanks CONACYT-CECTI, the University of Exeter and Secretaría de Educación Pública (SEP) for their funding of this project. The authors extend their thanks to Carlos Ortiz Solorio and to the Colegio de Posgraduados for the field soil data and to the Alianza Redd+ Mexico for the field biomass data. This project would not have been possible without the valuable data from the CMIP5 models. A. Arneth, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Wiltshire and S. Sitch acknowledge the support of the European Commission-funded project LULCC4C (grant no. 603542). A. Wiltshire was partsupported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Regulation of ACE2 isoforms by type 2 inflammation and viral infection in human airway epithelium

SARS-CoV-2 enters human cells through its main receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which constitutes a limiting factor of an infection. Recent findings demonstrating novel ACE2 isoforms implicate that this receptor is regulated in a more complex way than previously anticipated. However, it remains unknown how various inflammatory conditions influence the abundance of these ACE2 variants. Hence, we studied expression of ACE2 mRNA and protein isoforms, together with its glycosylation and spatial localization in primary human airway epithelium upon allergic inflammation and viral infection. We found that interleukin-13, the main type 2 cytokine, decreased expression of long ACE2 mRNA and reduced glycosylation of full length ACE2 protein via alteration of N-linked glycosylation process, limiting its availability on the apical side of ciliated cells. House dust mite allergen did not affect the expression of ACE2. Rhinovirus infection increased short ACE2 mRNA, but it did not influence its protein expression. In addition, by screening other SARS-CoV-2 related host molecules, we found that IL-13 and RV significantly regulated mRNA, but not protein of TMPRSS2 and NRP1. Regulation of ACE2 and other host proteins was comparable in healthy and asthmatic epithelium, underlining lack of intrinsic differences but dependence on the inflammatory milieu in the airways

Propagation of HF radio waves over northerly paths: measurements,simulation and systems aspects

Large deviations in the direction of arrival of ionospherically propagating radio signals from the Great Circle Path (GCP) have serious implications for the planning and operation of communications and radiolocation systems operating within the HF-band. Very large deviations are particularly prevalent in the polar and sub-auroral regions where signals often arrive at the receiver with bearings displaced from the great circle direction by up to ±100° or more. Measurements made over several paths are presented in this paper, and the principle causes of off-great circle propagation outlined. Significant progress has been made in modelling the propagation effects and work is now in hand to incorporate the results into tools to aid the planning and operation of HF radio systems operating at northerly latitudes

‘In the shower crying ...but we came back in the following day and did it all again’. Distress and resilience in care home staff during the COVID-19 pandemic – A qualitative interview study.

Abstract:\ua9 The Author(s) 2024.Background: Care homes (long-term care facilities) were profoundly impacted early in the COVID-19 pandemic, both in terms of resident mortality and restrictions for infection control. This study investigated the impact on the emotional well-being of care home staff of challenges faced at this time, and the strategies used to manage them. Methods: Semi-structured interviews conducted October 2020-June 2021 with care home staff and health service staff working with them explored the impact of the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-June 2021). Interview data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Results: Interview participants were 16 care home staff and 10 health service staff. Analysis generated four key themes: 1)Anxiety and distress, 2)Overwhelming workload, 3)Pulling through; and 4)Resilience in a time of crisis. Care home staff experienced Anxiety and distress due to uncertainty of what to expect; witnessing illness and deaths of residents; concerns regarding their own health, and sometimes feeling their work was under-recognised. They also experienced an Overwhelming workload due to infection control measures, caring for sick residents and reduction in external healthcare support. Our theme of Pulling through reflects the peer support and problem-solving strategies with which care home staff managed the impact of the pandemic, along with a sense of responsibility and meaning towards their work. An overarching theme of Resilience in a time of crisis drew on the other three themes and describes how many staff managed, maintained, and often increased their work despite the challenges of the pandemic. Participants also described increasing emotional fatigue as the pandemic continued. Conclusions: This paper builds on literature on the emotional impact of the pandemic on care home staff, also exploring ways that staff responded to this impact. These findings can help inform planning for future crises including disease outbreaks, and raise important questions for further work to develop pandemic preparedness in care homes and beyond. They also raise wider questions about the current cultural status of care work, which may have exposed care home staff to greater risk of distress, and which contrasts with the professionalism and responsibility shown by staff in response to pandemic challenge