Synthesis of fused tricyclic systems by thermal cope rearrangement of furan-substituted vinyl cyclopropanes

A novel method for the stereoselective construction of hexahydroazuleno[4,5-b]furans from simple precursors has been developed. The route involves the use of our recently developed Brønsted acid catalysed cyclisation reaction of acyclic ynenones to prepare fused 1-furanyl-2-alkenylcyclopropanes that undergo highly stereoselective thermal Cope rearrangement to produce fused tricyclic products. Substrates possessing an E-alkene undergo smooth Cope rearrangement at 40 °C, whereas the corresponding Z-isomers do not react at this temperature. Computational studies have been performed to explain the difference in behaviour of the E- and Z-isomers in the Cope rearrangement reaction. The hexahydroazuleno[4,5-b]furans produced by Cope rearrangement have potential as advanced intermediates for the synthesis of members of the guaianolide family of natural products

Overstating the evidence - double counting in meta-analysis and related problems

Background: The problem of missing studies in meta-analysis has received much attention. Less attention has been paid to the more serious problem of double counting of evidence. Methods: Various problems in overstating the precision of results from meta-analyses are described and illustrated with examples, including papers from leading medical journals. These problems include, but are not limited to, simple double-counting of the same studies, double counting of some aspects of the studies, inappropriate imputation of results, and assigning spurious precision to individual studies. Results: Some suggestions are made as to how the quality and reliability of meta-analysis can be improved. It is proposed that the key to quality in meta-analysis lies in the results being transparent and checkable. Conclusions: Existing quality check lists for meta-analysis do little to encourage an appropriate attitude to combining evidence and to statistical analysis. Journals and other relevant organisations should encourage authors to make data available and make methods explicit. They should also act promptly to withdraw meta-analyses when mistakes are found

Population Hemoglobin Mean and Anemia Prevalence in Papua New Guinea: New Metrics for Defining Malaria Endemicity?

The hypothesis is that hemoglobin-based metrics are useful tools for estimating malaria endemicity and for monitoring malaria control strategies. The aim of this study is to compare population hemoglobin mean and anemia prevalence to established indicators of malaria endemicity, including parasite rates, rates of enlarged spleens in children, and records of (presumptive) malaria diagnosis among populations living with different levels of malaria transmission. Convenience sample, multisite cross-sectional household surveys conducted in Papua New Guinea. Correlations (r(2)) between population Hb mean and anemia prevalence and altitude, parasite rate, and spleen rate were investigated in children ages 2 to 10 years, and in the general population; 21,664 individuals from 156 different communities were surveyed. Altitude ranged from 5 to 2120 meters. In young children, correlations between altitude and parasite rate, population Hb mean, anemia prevalence, and spleen rate were high (r(2): -0.77, 0.73, -0.81, and -0.68; p<0.001). In the general population, correlations between altitude and population Hb mean and anemia prevalence were 0.83 and 0.85, respectively. Among young children, parasite rate correlated highly with anemia prevalence, population Hb mean, and spleen rate (r(2): 0.81, -0.81, and 0.86; p<0.001). Population Hb mean (corrected for direct altitude effects) increased with altitude, from 10.5 g/dl at <500 m to 12.8 g/dl at >1500 m (p<0.001). In PNG, where Plasmodium vivax accounts for an important part of all malaria infections, population hemoglobin mean and anemia prevalence correlate well with altitude, parasite, and spleen rates. Hb measurement is simple and affordable, and may be a useful new tool, alone or in association with other metrics, for estimating malaria endemicity and monitoring effectiveness of malaria control programs. Further prospective studies in areas with different malaria epidemiology and different factors contributing to the burden of anemia are warranted to investigate the usefulness of Hb metrics in monitoring malaria transmission intensity

Understanding Variation in Sets of N-of-1 Trials.

A recent paper in this journal by Chen and Chen has used computer simulations to examine a number of approaches to analysing sets of n-of-1 trials. We have examined such designs using a more theoretical approach based on considering the purpose of analysis and the structure as regards randomisation that the design uses. We show that different purposes require different analyses and that these in turn may produce quite different results. Our approach to incorporating the randomisation employed when the purpose is to test a null hypothesis of strict equality of the treatment makes use of Nelder's theory of general balance. However, where the purpose is to make inferences about the effects for individual patients, we show that a mixed model is needed. There are strong parallels to the difference between fixed and random effects meta-analyses and these are discussed

Effectiveness of Artemether/Lumefantrine for the Treatment of Uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum Malaria in Young Children in Papua New Guinea

This study shows that artemether/lumefantrine provides a rapid clinical response against both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax clinical malaria, but is associated with a high rate of P. vivax recurrent clinical episodes due to relapsing infections from long-lasting hypnozoite

Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Management of Malaria: An Effectiveness Study in Papua New Guinean Infants With Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria

This study shows that treatment for malaria based exclusively on rapid diagnostic test results is safe and feasible even in infants living in areas with moderate to high endemicity for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection

Does evidence support the high expectations placed in precision medicine? A bibliographic review

Background: Precision medicine is the Holy Grail of interventions that aretailored to a patient’s individual characteristics.  However, the conventional design of randomized trials assumes that each individual benefits by the same amount. Methods: We reviewed parallel trials with quantitative outcomes published in2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. We collected baseline and final standard deviations of the main outcome. We assessed homoscedasticity by comparing the outcome variability between treated and control arms. Results: The review provided 208 articles with enough information to conductthe analysis. At the end of the study, 113 (54%, 95% CI 47 to 61%) papers find less variability in the treated arm. The adjusted point estimate of the mean ratio (treated to control group) of the outcome variances is 0.89 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.97). Conclusions: Some variance inflation was observed in just 1 out of 6 interventions, suggesting the need for further eligibility criteria to tailor precision medicine. Surprisingly, the variance was more often smaller in the intervention group, suggesting, if anything, a reduced role for precision medicine.  Homoscedasticity is a useful tool for assessing whether or not the premise of constant effect is reasonable.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

14th Annual Conference on Legal Issues For Financial Institutions

Materials from the 14th Annual Conference on Legal Issues For Financial Institutions held by UK/CLE in March 1994

Inhibition of T1/St2 during Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Prevents T Helper Cell Type 2 (Th2)- but Not Th1-Driven Immunopathology

T cells secreting interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-5 (T helper cell type 2 [Th2] cells) play a detrimental role in a variety of diseases, but specific methods of regulating their activity remain elusive. T1/ST2 is a surface ligand of the IL-1 receptor family, expressed on Th2- but not on interferon (IFN)-γ–producing Th1 cells. Prior exposure of BALB/c mice to the attachment (G) or fusion (F) protein of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) increases illness severity during intranasal RSV challenge, due to Th2-driven lung eosinophilia and exuberant Th1-driven pulmonary infiltration, respectively. We used these polar models of viral illness to study the recruitment of T1/ST2 cells to the lung and to test the effects of anti-T1/ST2 treatment in vivo. T1/ST2 was present on a subset of CD4+ cells from mice with eosinophilic lung disease. Monoclonal anti-T1/ST2 treatment reduced lung inflammation and the severity of illness in mice with Th2 (but not Th1) immunopathology. These results show that inhibition of T1/ST2 has a specific effect on virally induced Th2 responses and suggests that therapy targeted at this receptor might be of value in treating Th2-driven illness

Assessment and Implication of Prognostic Imbalance in Randomized Controlled Trials with a Binary Outcome – A Simulation Study

Chance imbalance in baseline prognosis of a randomized controlled trial can lead to over or underestimation of treatment effects, particularly in trials with small sample sizes. Our study aimed to (1) evaluate the probability of imbalance in a binary prognostic factor (PF) between two treatment arms, (2) investigate the impact of prognostic imbalance on the estimation of a treatment effect, and (3) examine the effect of sample size (n) in relation to the first two objectives.We simulated data from parallel-group trials evaluating a binary outcome by varying the risk of the outcome, effect of the treatment, power and prevalence of the PF, and n. Logistic regression models with and without adjustment for the PF were compared in terms of bias, standard error, coverage of confidence interval and statistical power.For a PF with a prevalence of 0.5, the probability of a difference in the frequency of the PF≥5% reaches 0.42 with 125/arm. Ignoring a strong PF (relative risk = 5) leads to underestimating the strength of a moderate treatment effect, and the underestimate is independent of n when n is >50/arm. Adjusting for such PF increases statistical power. If the PF is weak (RR = 2), adjustment makes little difference in statistical inference. Conditional on a 5% imbalance of a powerful PF, adjustment reduces the likelihood of large bias. If an absolute measure of imbalance ≥5% is deemed important, including 1000 patients/arm provides sufficient protection against such an imbalance. Two thousand patients/arm may provide an adequate control against large random deviations in treatment effect estimation in the presence of a powerful PF.The probability of prognostic imbalance in small trials can be substantial. Covariate adjustment improves estimation accuracy and statistical power, and hence should be performed when strong PFs are observed