A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election

By examining disaggregate state-level data, we address two weaknesses of prior estimates of economic voting models in U.S. Presidential elections. First, our disaggregate approach substantially improves statistical power, thus reducing the danger of “over- fitting.†Second, our analysis demonstrates systematic differences in voting behavior across states, which have been ignored: voters in higher-income states respond significantly to inflation, changes in the Dow-Jones stock market average, the number of terms the incumbent party has held office, and measures of national security concerns, yet voters in lower-income states respond significantly only to economic growth. Our forecasts for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election predict a statistical dead-heat overall, but a systematic preference for Senator John McCain in lower-income states and for Senator Barack Obama in higher-income states.

'Guns and butter'' in U.S. presidential elections

Previous models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite the closeness of the pre-election polls in 2004, formal models instead predict a landslide victory for President Bush. An obvious question is whether this anomaly arises, at least in part, from national security concerns – in particular, the conflict in Iraq. We explore this pre-election anomaly by introducing two opposing electoral forces capturing national security concerns, which for the 2004 election reduces President Bush's predicted vote share. In general, the impact of national security concerns on the vote share of the incumbent (or the incumbent''s party) can be substantial, whether positive, as in the 1944 election during World War II, or negative, as in the 1952 election during the Korean war and the 1968 election during the Vietnam war.

Econometrics of the Forward Premium Puzzle

This paper compares the "level" regression of the future spot rate on the current forward rate, which yields a slope coefficient close to unity, to the forward premium puzzle, i.e., a regression of the change in the spot exchange rate on the forward premium, which paradoxically yields a slope coefficient that is frequently negative. We argue that the striking difference between these two otherwise equivalent regressions follows from the existence of a bias together with the non-stationarity of underlying variables. In addition, we contend that non-rationality may potentially explain the existence of the bias that generates the forward premium puzzle.Forward premium puzzle

A scenic design process for The Chemistry of Change: a production thesis in theatre design and technology

The scenic design for the Louisiana State University Theatre production of Marlane Meyer’s The Chemistry of Change was selected and approved as my thesis project in the spring of 2001. This document represents a written account of the scenic design as it was conceived, developed, and executed. Records include research, a description of the design process, photographic evidence, and a final evaluation of the result

Hodgkin's lymphoma

This issue of eMedRef provides information to clinicians on the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and therapeutics of Hodgkin's lymphoma

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

This issue of eMedRef provides information to clinicians on the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and therapeutics of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

Vertex Sequences in Graphs

We consider a variety of types of vertex sequences, which are defined in terms of a requirement that the next vertex in the sequence must meet. For example, let S = (v1, v2, …, vk ) be a sequence of distinct vertices in a graph G such that every vertex vi in S dominates at least one vertex in V that is not dominated by any of the vertices preceding it in the sequence S. Such a sequence of maximal length is called a dominating sequence since the set {v1, v2, …, vk } must be a dominating set of G. In this paper we survey the literature on dominating and other related sequences, and propose for future study several new types of vertex sequences, which suggest the beginning of a theory of vertex sequences in graphs

Functional analysis in behavior therapy: behavioral foundations and clinical application

This theoretical study reviews the theoretical and applied foundations of a functional analysis strategy in clinical case-formulation. Functional relations between variables are those that demonstrate a mathematical association. Causal functional relations between variables require: (a) covariance, (b) a logical connection, (c) temporal precedence of the causal variable, and (d) absence of a third variable explaining the relation. There are unidirectional, bidirectional, moderating, and mediating (i.e., explanatory) causal functional relations. In a functional analysis the relevant, controllable, and causal functional relations that apply to particular behaviors of an individual are identified. A functionalanalytic approach to case-formulation is designed to minimize clinical judgment bias and optimize clinical decision-making in the assessment and treatment processes. Additional features of a functional analysis and its use for intervention design are discussed within the context of a patient diagnosed with Schizophrenia Paranoid Type. This article also considers the conditional nature and limitations of a functional-analytic approach in clinical psychology.En este estudio teórico se revisan los fundamentos teóricos y aplicados de un modelo de análisis funcional en formulación clínica de casos. Las relaciones funcionales entre variables demuestran una asociación matemática; el subconjunto de relaciones funcionales causales requiere además: (a) covarianza, (b) conexión lógica, (c) precisión temporal de la variable causal y (d) exclusión de terceras variables que expliquen la relación. Hay relaciones funcionales cuasales unidireccionales, bidireccionales, moderadoras y mediadoras (explicativas). En el análisis funcional se identifican las relaciones funcionales relevantes, controlables y causales que se asocian a determinados comportamientos del individuo. Una aproximación analítico-funcional a la formulación clínica de casos está concebida para minimizar los sesgos de juicio clínico y optimizar la toma de decisiones durante los procesos de evaluación y tratamiento. Aspectos adicionales del análisis funcional y de su uso para el diseño de intervenciones se ilustran en el contexto de un caso diagnosticado de esquizofrenia tipo paranoide; entre ellos, un modelo matemático sencillo para estimar la eficacia del tratamiento basado en análisis funcional. Finalmente, consideramos las limitaciones en el contexto clínico de la aproximación al análisis funcional propuesta.Neste estudo teórico revêem-se os fundamentos teóricos e aplicados de um modelo da análise funcional em formulação clínica de casos. As relações funcionais entre variáveis demonstram uma associação matemática; o subconjunto de relações funcionais causais requer: (a) covariância, (b) conexão lógica, (c) precisão temporal da variável causal e (d) exclusão de terceiras variáveis que expliquem a relação. Há relações funcionais causais unidireccionais, bidireccionais, moderadoras e mediadoras (explicativas). Na análise funcional identificam-se as relações funcionais relevantes, controláveis e causais que se associam a determinados comportamentos do indivíduo. Uma aproximação analítico-funcional à formulação clínica de casos está concebida para minimizar os viés de juízo clínico e optimizar a tomada de decisões durante os processos de avaliação e tratamento. Aspectos adicionais da análise funcional e do seu uso para o planeamento de intervenções ilustram-se no contexto de um caso diagnosticado com esquizofrenia tipo paranoide; entre eles, um modelo matemático sensível para estimar a eficácia do tratamento baseado na análise funcional. Finalmente, consideramos as limitações no contexto clínico da aproximação à análise funcional proposta.This article was composed during a scholarship at the Psychology Department of the University of Hawai’i at Manoa (October 2003-May 2004) granted by the Servicio Andaluz de Salud as part of a three-years internship program (PIR) in the Complejo Hospitalario de Jaén (Jaén, Spain)

The STRS (shortness of breath, tremulousness, racing heart, and sweating): A brief checklist for acute distress with panic-like autonomic indicators; development and factor structure

Background: Peritraumatic response, as currently assessed by Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) diagnostic criterion A2, has weak positive predictive value (PPV) with respect to PTSD diagnosis. Research suggests that indicators of peritraumatic autonomic activation may supplement the PPV of PTSD criterion A2. We describe the development and factor structure of the STRS (Shortness of Breath, Tremulousness, Racing Heart, and Sweating), a one page, two-minute checklist with a five-point Likert-type response format based on a previously unpublished scale. It is the first validated self-report measure of peritraumatic activation of the autonomic nervous system.\ud \ud Methods: We selected items from the Potential Stressful Events Interview (PSEI) to represent two latent variables: 1) PTSD diagnostic criterion A, and 2) acute autonomic activation. Participants (a convenience sample of 162 non-treatment seeking young adults) rated the most distressing incident of their lives on these items. We examined the factor structure of the STRS in this sample using factor and cluster analysis.\ud \ud Results: Results confirmed a two-factor model. The factors together accounted for 68% of the variance. The variance in each item accounted for by the two factors together ranged from 41% to 74%. The item loadings on the two factors mapped precisely onto the two proposed latent variables.\ud \ud Conclusion: The factor structure of the STRS is robust and interpretable. Autonomic activation signs tapped by the STRS constitute a dimension of the acute autonomic activation in response to stress that is distinct from the current PTSD criterion A2. Since the PTSD diagnostic criteria are likely to change in the DSM-V, further research is warranted to determine whether signs of peritraumatic autonomic activation such as those measured by this two-minute scale add to the positive predictive power of the current PTSD criterion A2. Additionally, future research is warranted to explore whether the four automatic activation items of the STRS can be useful as the basis for a possible PTSD criterion A3 in the DSM-V