A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election

Abstract

By examining disaggregate state-level data, we address two weaknesses of prior estimates of economic voting models in U.S. Presidential elections. First, our disaggregate approach substantially improves statistical power, thus reducing the danger of “over- fitting.†Second, our analysis demonstrates systematic differences in voting behavior across states, which have been ignored: voters in higher-income states respond significantly to inflation, changes in the Dow-Jones stock market average, the number of terms the incumbent party has held office, and measures of national security concerns, yet voters in lower-income states respond significantly only to economic growth. Our forecasts for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election predict a statistical dead-heat overall, but a systematic preference for Senator John McCain in lower-income states and for Senator Barack Obama in higher-income states.