CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located similar to ~60 degrees east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360 degrees" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble." We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.</p

The first widespread solar energetic particle event observed by Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1 AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50 MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1 AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involve

Simulation data archive: The influence of rotational discontinuities on the formation of reconnected structures at collisionless shocks - hybrid simulations

Code and data used in preparation for submission to JGR: Space physics

Electrostatic plasma waves associated with collisionless magnetic reconnection : Spacecraft observations

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma process where changes in magnetic field topology result in explosive energy conversion, plasma mixing, heating, and energization. In geospace, magnetic reconnection couples the Earth’s magnetosphere to the solar wind plasma, enabling plasma transport across the magnetopause. On the sun, reconnection is responsible for coronal mass ejections and flares, which can affect everyday life on Earth, and it influences the evolution of the solar wind. Although collisionless magnetic reconnection has been studied for a long time, some fundamental aspects of the process remain to be understood. One such aspect is if/how plasma waves affect the process. Simulations and spacecraft observations of magnetic reconnection have shown that plasma waves are ubiquitous during reconnection. Particularly interesting are simulation results which show that electrostatic waves can affect the rate at which reconnection occurs, but this has not yet been experimentally verified. The recently launched Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission was designed to investigate the smallest scales of collisionless magnetic reconnection, making it an excellent mission to study small-scale waves as well. In this thesis, we use MMS to study electrostatic waves associated with magnetic reconnection in geospace. Our first two studies are devoted to the properties of electron holes (EHs), believed to play an important role in collisionless reconnection. Using MMS, we analyze EHs in unprecedented detail, and compare their properties to theory and previous studies. Importantly, we find evidence of EHs radiating whistler waves in the reconnection separatrices, a process which might modulate the reconnection rate. In our third study, we show that the presence of cold ions at the reconnecting magnetopause can lead to the growth of the ion-acoustic instability. This instability leads to dissipation and cold ion heating. The fourth study compares different techniques for determining the velocity of electrostatic waves. Accurate velocity estimates are important, since they are needed to understand how the wave interacts with the plasma. Finally, in our fifth study, we calibrate the E-field measurements made in the solar wind by the Solar Orbiter spacecraft, to aid future studies of solar wind processes, including magnetic reconnection

Simulation data archive: The influence of rotational discontinuities on the formation of reconnected structures at collisionless shocks - hybrid simulations

Code and data used in preparation for submission to JGR: Space physics.</span

Deriving the Undisturbed Near-surface Lunar Electric Field : Simulations of the electrostatic environment of the Umeå Lunar Venture electric field instrument

The existence of an electric field on the Moon has been theorized since the end of the 1960s, when reports from astronauts suggested that charged particles from the lunar surface could be seen interacting with light at high altitudes. Today it is believed that an electric field drives the motion of charged particles on the Moon, and although a good number of simulations investigating the field have been made, the electric field has not been measured experimentally. Space Science Sweden and Umeå Lunar Venture have developed an electric field mill instrument that is to be attached to a lunar lander with the intention of measuring the electric field near the lunar terminators. The main problem that arises when this approach is used to measure electric fields is that the presence ofthe lunar lander, and of the instrument itself, distorts the ambient fields intended to be measured. A numerical electrostatic model treating the electric field distortions caused by conductive materials and their charge is developed in COMSOL Multiphysics, and is shown to agree well with both theoretical and experimental results. The model is then applied to a system consisting of a lunar lander with the electric field instrumen tattached, and the resulting field distortions are investigated. The system is calibrated for different locations of the field mill, as well as for different modifications of the instrument in order to find the optimal location and instrument that minimizes the errors in the calculated ambient fields. The results indicate that if the instrument consists of three field mills, and is placed near a corner of the lunar lander, it will be able to measure the ambient electric field larger than a few 100 mV/m, unless the potential of the lunar lander is around 10 V, in which case the charge induced field drowns out the ambient field. However, the model of the lunar lander that was used lacked information regarding its materials and solar panels. Consequently, the assumption that the surfaces of the lander were conductive and held at the same potential was made. Similarly, only very simplified models of the solar panels were used to estimate their importance. Because of these simplifications, the results should be seen as preliminary, and not conclusive. In order to obtain more reliable results that can be used together with actual lunar data, a few changes and additions should be made to the model. Specifically, a more detailed and accurate computer model of the lunar lander is necessary to obtain more correctly estimated field distortions. Additional information regarding the material and coating of the solar panel is required to properly model the solar panels and account for their effect on the ambient electric field

Electrostatic plasma waves associated with collisionless magnetic reconnection : Spacecraft observations

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma process where changes in magnetic field topology result in explosive energy conversion, plasma mixing, heating, and energization. In geospace, magnetic reconnection couples the Earth’s magnetosphere to the solar wind plasma, enabling plasma transport across the magnetopause. On the sun, reconnection is responsible for coronal mass ejections and flares, which can affect everyday life on Earth, and it influences the evolution of the solar wind. Although collisionless magnetic reconnection has been studied for a long time, some fundamental aspects of the process remain to be understood. One such aspect is if/how plasma waves affect the process. Simulations and spacecraft observations of magnetic reconnection have shown that plasma waves are ubiquitous during reconnection. Particularly interesting are simulation results which show that electrostatic waves can affect the rate at which reconnection occurs, but this has not yet been experimentally verified. The recently launched Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission was designed to investigate the smallest scales of collisionless magnetic reconnection, making it an excellent mission to study small-scale waves as well. In this thesis, we use MMS to study electrostatic waves associated with magnetic reconnection in geospace. Our first two studies are devoted to the properties of electron holes (EHs), believed to play an important role in collisionless reconnection. Using MMS, we analyze EHs in unprecedented detail, and compare their properties to theory and previous studies. Importantly, we find evidence of EHs radiating whistler waves in the reconnection separatrices, a process which might modulate the reconnection rate. In our third study, we show that the presence of cold ions at the reconnecting magnetopause can lead to the growth of the ion-acoustic instability. This instability leads to dissipation and cold ion heating. The fourth study compares different techniques for determining the velocity of electrostatic waves. Accurate velocity estimates are important, since they are needed to understand how the wave interacts with the plasma. Finally, in our fifth study, we calibrate the E-field measurements made in the solar wind by the Solar Orbiter spacecraft, to aid future studies of solar wind processes, including magnetic reconnection

Simulation data archive: The influence of rotational discontinuities on the formation of reconnected structures at collisionless shocks - hybrid simulations

&lt;p&gt;Code and data used in preparation for submission to JGR: Space physics.&lt;/p&gt

On the Applicability of Single-Spacecraft Interferometry Methods Using Electric Field Probes

When analyzing plasma waves, a key parameter to determine is the phase velocity. It enables us to, for example, compute wavelengths, wave potentials, and determine the energy of resonant particles. The phase velocity of a wave, observed by a single spacecraft equipped with electric field probes, can be determined using interferometry techniques. While several methods have been developed to do this, they have not been documented in detail. In this study, we use an analytical model to analyze and compare three interferometry methods applied on the probe geometry of the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft. One method relies on measured probe potentials, whereas the other two use different E-field measurements: one by reconstructing the E-field between two probes and the spacecraft, the other by constructing four pairwise parallel E-field components in the spacecraft spin-plane. We find that the potential method is sensitive both to how planar the wave is, and to spacecraft potential changes due to the wave. The E-field methods are less affected by the spacecraft potential, and while the reconstructed E-field method is applicable in some cases, the second E-field method is almost always preferable. We conclude that the potential based interferometry method is useful when spacecraft potential effects are negligible and the signals of the different probes are very well correlated. The method using two pairs of parallel E-fields is practically always preferable to the reconstructed E-field method and produces the correct velocity in the spin-plane, but it requires knowledge of the propagation direction to provide the full velocity

Observations of Electromagnetic Electron Holes and Evidence of Cherenkov Whistler Emission

International audienc