Aufsätze zu Internationalem Handel, Prognose und dem Containerschiffnetzwerk

Seaborne vessels transport approximately 70% of global trade by value according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The grounding of the 400-meter long container ship “Ever Given” and the ensuing blockage of the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021 clearly demonstrated the importance of a wellfunctioning maritime transport sector for the flow of goods. Container ships play a particularly crucial role in this transportation network as they transport 66% of the maritime cargo by value. At the same time, the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which was developed to avoid collisions at sea using high frequency radio signals, generates extremely recent information on ships’ positions, course and draught. The essays below have in common that they utilize the daily positions of all approximately 6,000 container ships after the year 2015 for economic analysis. The studies rely on the data to develop and test methods for forecasting trade flows, to investigate the impact of oil prices on trade costs and to quantify the disruptive effects of tropical cyclones and piracy on maritime shipping and trade. The first chapter uses the AIS data to derive 880 time series at the port and sea area level to reflect seaborne cargo flows. Using a combination of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and the partial least squares, the paper demonstrates that these time series can reliably forecast unilateral and bilateral trade flows. The second chapter dervies a highly dimensional data for shipping that sllows the study of trade costs from container shipping. Oil prices are caculated to increase the time of transportation and increase freight rates. The following chapter investigates the effects of tropical cyclones on internaitonal trade and the container shipping network. In the last chapter, research finds that maritime piracy reduces global trade flows

Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport

Despite a general agreement that piracy poses a significant threat to maritime ship - ping, empirical evidence regarding its economic consequences remains scarce. This paper combines firm-level Chinese customs data and ship position data with infor- mation on pirate attacks to investigate how exporting firms and cargo ships respond to maritime piracy. It finds that overall exports along affected shipping routes fall following an increase in pirate activity. In addition, piracy induces firms to switch from ocean to air shipping, while remaining ocean shipments become larger. At the ship-level, the paper provides evidence for re-routing, as container ships avoid regions prone to pirate attacks

Perioperative pain management models in four European countries: A narrative review of differences, similarities and future directions.

There is general agreement that acute pain management is an important component of perioperative medicine. However, there is no consensus on the best model of care for perioperative pain management, mainly because evidence is missing in many aspects. Comparing the similarities and differences between countries might reveal some insights into different organisational models and how they work. Here, we performed a narrative review to describe and compare the structures, processes and outcomes of perioperative pain management in the healthcare systems of four European countries using Donabedian's framework as a guide. Our comparison revealed many similarities, differences and gaps. Different structures of acute pain services in the four countries with no common definition and standards of care were found. Protocols have been implemented in all countries and guidelines in some. If outcome is assessed, it is mainly pain intensity, and many patients experiencing more intense pain than others have common risk factors (e.g. preoperative pain, preoperative opioid intake, female sex and young age). Outcome assessment beyond pain intensity (such as pain-related physical function, which is important for early rehabilitation and recovery) is currently not well implemented. Developing common quality indicators, a European guideline for perioperative pain management (e.g. for patients at high risk for experiencing severe pain and other outcome parameters) and common criteria for acute pain services might pave the way forward for improving acute pain management in Europe. Finally, the education of general and specialist staff should be aligned in Europe, for example, by using the curricula of European Pain Federation (EFIC)