The price of populism: financial market outcomes of populist electoral success

Following financial research on the importance of public policy for asset prices, we hypothesize that the success of populist movements impacts risk assessments in financial markets. Building a novel dataset, findings show for a sample of Western democracies that the success of populist parties has a direct impact on volatility in major domestic market indexes, measured from option prices spanning national elections. Despite its anti-capitalist rhetoric, the political insecurity generated by populist movements on the far left only partially translates into financial insecurity in the context of institutionalized democracies. In turn, we find the electoral success of right-wing populists to reduce risk assessments, which could be driven by its frequent association with rent-seeking and big business

Victims or Suspects? Identifying and Assisting Potentially Trafficked Fishermen: A Qualitative Study with Stakeholders and First Responders in Thailand

Prompted by reports of ‘sea slavery’ in the fishing industry and threats of sanctions, Thailand has faced pressure to eradicate human trafficking the fishing sector. Although the Thai government has responded with anti-trafficking policies, there remains little understanding about their implementation. Specifically, little is known about how government agencies, NGOs or industry perceive “trafficking”, and no research examines how trafficked fishermen are identified and assisted. This study aimed to: 1) explore how stakeholders described trafficking in the fishing sector and their perceptions of trafficking indicators; and 2) identify challenges encountered by frontline responders to identify and assist trafficked fishermen. We conducted interviews with 33 key informants, which were analysed thematically. Findings indicate that authorities and industry representatives believed migrant brokers caused employers to “inadvertently” traffic men. Trafficking was perceived to take place primarily outside of Thai waters, beyond the government's jurisdiction. Most stakeholders considered violence and being confined as key indicators of trafficking. Officials expressed confusion about whether debt bondage and document confiscation “counted” as indicators. Ambiguity and confusion about trafficking indicators in screening forms, combined with perceived “deservingness” of official victim status, underpinned frontline responders’ decisions about who was a victim of trafficking (VoT). Practical and structural constraints included interpreter shortages, and expanded civil servant remits without commensurate staff increases, which hindered officials’ responses to trafficking. This study addresses a critical knowledge gap on the implementation of anti-trafficking policies and offers findings to assist policymakers to address the challenges faced by frontline responders to improve victim identification and assistance

A genome-wide association meta-analysis on lipoprotein (a) concentrations adjusted for apolipoprotein (a) isoforms.

High lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] concentrations are an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. Concentrations are strongly influenced by apo(a) kringle IV repeat isoforms. We aimed to identify genetic loci associated with Lp(a) concentrations using data from five genome-wide association studies (n = 13,781). We identified 48 independent SNPs in the <i>LPA</i> and 1 SNP in the <i>APOE</i> gene region to be significantly associated with Lp(a) concentrations. We also adjusted for apo(a) isoforms to identify loci affecting Lp(a) levels independently from them, which resulted in 31 SNPs (30 in the <i>LPA</i> , 1 in the <i>APOE</i> gene region). Seven SNPs showed a genome-wide significant association with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. A rare SNP (rs186696265; MAF ∼1%) showed the highest effect on Lp(a) and was also associated with increased risk of CAD (odds ratio = 1.73, <i>P</i> = 3.35 × 10 <sup>-30</sup> ). Median Lp(a) values increased from 2.1 to 91.1 mg/dl with increasing number of Lp(a)-increasing alleles. We found the <i>APOE2</i> -determining allele of rs7412 to be significantly associated with Lp(a) concentrations ( <i>P</i> = 3.47 × 10 <sup>-10</sup> ). Each <i>APOE2</i> allele decreased Lp(a) by 3.34 mg/dl corresponding to ∼15% of the population's mean values. Performing a gene-based test of association, including suspected Lp(a) receptors and regulators, resulted in one significant association of the <i>TLR2</i> gene with Lp(a) ( <i>P</i> = 3.4 × 10 <sup>-4</sup> ). In summary, we identified a large number of independent SNPs in the <i>LPA</i> gene region, as well as the <i>APOE2</i> allele, to be significantly associated with Lp(a) concentrations

Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity (IMAGE): Women's Engagement with the Scaled-up IMAGE Programme and Experience of Intimate Partner Violence in Rural South Africa.

The Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity (IMAGE) programme has been scaled up to three provinces in South Africa. This paper explores associations between women's engagement in the intervention, intimate partner violence (IPV) and factors associated with IPV and partner abuse. We enrolled women receiving group-based microfinance loans plus gender training into the scaled-up IMAGE cohort study (n = 860). We present cross-sectional analysis on participants' characteristics and intervention engagement and use multivariate logistic regression to explore associations. 17% of women reported lifetime (95% CI 15 to 20%) and 7% past year (95% CI 5 to 9%) IPV, 9% past-year economic (95% CI 7 to 11%) and 11% past-year emotional (95% CI 9 to 14%) abuse. Women under 35 years had higher levels of IPV and emotional abuse. 53% of women attended all the trainings, 83% continuously borrowed and 98% agreed the training had a major impact on their life. Attendance was associated with improved partner relationships (χ2p < 0.001), but not lower IPV risk. Odds of past-year IPV decreased the more types of support (e.g. advice) women received from group members (aOR 0.27, p < 0.001 among those reporting all support versus none or some). A similar pattern was seen for economic, but not emotional, abuse. The scaled-up IMAGE intervention is widely acceptable and may support improvements in partner relationships, but younger women need to be targeted. Group support appears to be a potentially important component of the intervention

A genome-wide association meta-analysis on apolipoprotein A-IV concentrations.

Apolipoprotein A-IV (apoA-IV) is a major component of HDL and chylomicron particles and is involved in reverse cholesterol transport. It is an early marker of impaired renal function. We aimed to identify genetic loci associated with apoA-IV concentrations and to investigate relationships with known susceptibility loci for kidney function and lipids. A genome-wide association meta-analysis on apoA-IV concentrations was conducted in five population-based cohorts (n = 13,813) followed by two additional replication studies (n = 2,267) including approximately 10 M SNPs. Three independent SNPs from two genomic regions were significantly associated with apoA-IV concentrations: rs1729407 near APOA4 (P = 6.77 × 10 (-)  (44)), rs5104 in APOA4 (P = 1.79 × 10(-)(24)) and rs4241819 in KLKB1 (P = 5.6 × 10(-)(14)). Additionally, a look-up of the replicated SNPs in downloadable GWAS meta-analysis results was performed on kidney function (defined by eGFR), HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. From these three SNPs mentioned above, only rs1729407 showed an association with HDL-cholesterol (P = 7.1 × 10 (-)  (07)). Moreover, weighted SNP-scores were built involving known susceptibility loci for the aforementioned traits (53, 70 and 38 SNPs, respectively) and were associated with apoA-IV concentrations. This analysis revealed a significant and an inverse association for kidney function with apoA-IV concentrations (P = 5.5 × 10(-)(05)). Furthermore, an increase of triglyceride-increasing alleles was found to decrease apoA-IV concentrations (P = 0.0078). In summary, we identified two independent SNPs located in or next the APOA4 gene and one SNP in KLKB1 The association of KLKB1 with apoA-IV suggests an involvement of apoA-IV in renal metabolism and/or an interaction within HDL particles. Analyses of SNP-scores indicate potential causal effects of kidney function and by lesser extent triglycerides on apoA-IV concentrations

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) and Associated Factors in HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Communities in Zambia and South Africa-A Comparison by HIV Status.

The HPTN 071(PopART) study was a community-randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa, examining the impact of combination-prevention including universal testing and treatment (UTT), on HIV-incidence. This sub-study evaluated factors associated with IPV (physical and/or sexual) to identify differences by HIV status. During 2015-16, a random subset of adults who participated in the first year of the PopART intervention were recruited and standardised questionnaires were administered. Logistic regression was performed to estimate odds ratios of factors associated with IPV. Among > 700 women studied (300 HIV-negative;400 HIV-positive), ~ 20% reported experiencing physical and/or sexual violence in the last 12-months. Sexual violence was similar by HIV status, but physical violence and reporting both physical/sexual violence was more common among HIV-positive women. Spending nights away from the community in the last 12-months was associated with higher odds of IPV among both HIV-negative (aOR 3.17, 95% CI 1.02-9.81) and HIV-positive women (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 0.99-3.24). Among HIV-positive women, financial autonomy was associated with reduced IPV (aOR:0.41,95%CI:0.23-0.75) while pregnancy in the last 12-months (aOR 2.25, 95% CI 1.07-4.74), risk of alcohol dependence (aOR 2.75, 95% CI 1.51-5.00) and risk of mental distress (aOR 2.62, 95% CI 1.33-5.16) were associated with increased IPV. Among HIV-negative women reporting sex in the last 12-months, transactional sex (aOR 3.97, 95% CI 1.02-15.37) and not knowing partner's HIV status (aOR 3.01, 95% CI 1.24-7.29) were associated with IPV. IPV was commonly reported in the study population and factors associated with IPV differed by HIV status. The association of mobility with IPV warrants further research. The high prevalence of harmful alcohol use and mental distress, and their association with IPV among HIV-positive women require urgent attention

Induced abortion, pregnancy loss and intimate partner violence in Tanzania: a population based study

BACKGROUND: Violence by an intimate partner is increasingly recognized as an important public and reproductive health issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence is associated with induced abortion and pregnancy loss from other causes and to compare this with other, more commonly recognized explanatory factors. METHODS: This study analyzes the data of the Tanzania section of the WHO Multi-Country Study on Women's Health and Domestic Violence, a large population-based cross-sectional survey of women of reproductive age in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya, Tanzania, conducted from 2001 to 2002. All women who answered positively to at least one of the questions about specific acts of physical or sexual violence committed by a partner towards her at any point in her life were considered to have experienced intimate partner violence. Associations between self reported induced abortion and pregnancy loss with intimate partner violence were analysed using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Lifetime physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence was reported by 41% and 56% of ever partnered, ever pregnant women in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya respectively. Among the ever pregnant, ever partnered women, 23% experienced involuntary pregnancy loss, while 7% reported induced abortion. Even after adjusting for other explanatory factors, women who experienced intimate partner violence were 1.6 (95%CI: 1.06,1.60) times more likely to report an pregnancy loss and 1.9 (95%CI: 1.30,2.89) times more likely to report an induced abortion. Intimate partner violence had a stronger influence on induced abortion and pregnancy loss than women's age, socio-economic status, and number of live born children. CONCLUSIONS: Intimate partner violence is likely to be an important influence on levels of induced abortion and pregnancy loss in Tanzania. Preventing intimate partner violence may therefore be beneficial for maternal health and pregnancy outcomes

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition