Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large-scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (1) larger than present CS area, (2) current area, (3) smaller than present area, and (4) no-CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (E) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south-west CS with increasing area. P-E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake-evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north-western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500-hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios. Plain Language Summary The Caspian Sea is the largest land-locked water body in the world. It is filled by rivers draining a vast region from northern Russia to Iran. The size of the Caspian Sea has varied considerably over recent centuries and millennia due to various factors, including changes in climate. Conversely, as the area of the sea changes it also has impacts on the climate, but there are significant questions about how and where those impacts would be felt. In this study we used a state-of-the-art climate model in which we specified different sizes of Caspian Sea in order to examine how the climate changes as its area increases. We observed that the local seasonal cycle of temperatures gets smaller, and evaporation increases, while there are more spatially complex changes in local rainfall. Furthermore, the impacts on atmospheric circulation occur as far as the north Pacific, with resulting increases in temperature and decreases in sea-ice coverage in winter as the Caspian area increases. The climate impacts are so significant and geographically extensive that climate models used to simulate climate change (both in future and past scenarios) should incorporate changes to the Caspian Sea area if they are to robustly model regional climate

Rapid bioerosion in a tropical upwelling coral reef

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance, which is critical for understanding the natural variability of sediment production, reef accretion, and their effects on the carbonate budget. Bioerosion (i.e. biodegradation of substrate) and encrustation (i.e. calcified overgrowth on substrate) influence the carbonate budget and the ecological functions of coral reefs, by substrate formation/consolidation/erosion, food availability and nutrient cycling. This study investigates settlement succession and carbonate budget change by bioeroding and encrusting calcifying organisms on experimentally deployed coral substrates (skeletal fragments of Stylophora pistillata branches). The substrates were deployed in a marginal coral reef located in the Gulf of Papagayo (Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific) for four months during the northern winter upwelling period (December 2013 to March 2014), and consecutively sampled after each month. Due to the upwelling environmental conditions within the Eastern Tropical Pacific, this region serves as a natural laboratory to study ecological processes such as bioerosion, which may reflect climate change scenarios. Time-series analyses showed a rapid settlement of bioeroders, particularly of lithophagine bivalves of the genus Lithophaga/ Leiosolenus (Dillwyn, 1817), within the first two months of exposure. The observed enhanced calcium carbonate loss of coral substrate (>30%) may influence seawater carbon chemistry. This is evident by measurements of an elevated seawater pH (>8.2) and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag >3) at Matapalo Reef during the upwelling period, when compared to a previous upwelling event observed at a nearby site in distance to a coral reef (Marina Papagayo). Due to the resulting local carbonate buffer effect of the seawater, an influx of atmospheric CO2 into reef waters was observed. Substrates showed no secondary cements in thin-section analyses, despite constant seawater carbonate oversaturation (Ωarag >2.8) during the field experiment. Micro Computerized Tomography (μCT) scans and microcast-embeddings of the substrates revealed that the carbonate loss was primarily due to internal macrobioerosion and an increase in microbioerosion. This study emphasizes the interconnected effects of upwelling and carbonate bioerosion on the reef carbonate budget and the ecological turnovers of carbonate producers in tropical coral reefs under environmental change.Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación/[028-2013-SINAC]/SINAC/Costa RicaSistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación/[72-2013-SINAC]/SINAC/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation

Statistics of regional sterodynamic sea level variability are analyzed in terms of probability density functions of a 100-member ensemble of monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) timeseries simulated with the low-resolution Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. To analyze the impact of climate change on sea level statistics, fields of SSH variability, skewness and excess kurtosis representing the historical period 1986-2005 are compared with similar fields from projections for the period 2081-2100 under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate forcing conditions. Larger deviations of the models SSH statistics from Gaussian are limited to the western and eastern tropical Pacific. Under future climate warming conditions, SSH variability of the western tropical Pacific appear more Gaussian in agreement with weaker zonal easterly wind stress pulses, suggesting a reduced El Nino Southern Oscillation activity in the western warm pool region. SSH variability changes show a complex amplitude pattern with some regions becoming less variable, e.g., off the eastern coast of the north American continent, while other regions become more variable, notably the Southern Ocean. A west (decrease)-east (increase) contrast in variability changes across the subtropical Atlantic under RCP8.5 forcing is related to changes in the gyre circulation and a declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to external forcing changes. In addition to global mean sea-level rise of 16 cm for RCP4.5 and 24 cm for RCP8.5, we diagnose regional changes in the tails of the probability density functions, suggesting a potential increased in variability-related extreme sea level events under global warmer conditions

Last Interglacial decadal sea surface temperature variability in the eastern Mediterranean

The Last Interglacial (~129,000–116,000 years ago) is the most recent geologic period with a warmer-than-present climate. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions from this interval can help contextualize natural climate variability in our currently warming world, especially if they can define changes on decadal timescales. Here, we established a ~4.800-year-long record of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from the eastern Mediterranean Sea at 1–4-year resolution by applying mass spectrometry imaging of long-chain alkenones to a finely laminated organic-matter-rich sapropel deposited during the Last Interglacial. We observe the highest amplitude of decadal variability in the early stage of sapropel deposition, plausibly due to reduced vertical mixing of the highly stratified water column. With the subsequent reorganization of oceanographic conditions in the later stage of sapropel deposition, when SST forcing resembled the modern situation, we observe that the maximum amplitude of reconstructed decadal variability did not exceed the range of the recent period of warming climate. The more gradual, centennial SST trends reveal that the maximal centennial scale SST increase in our Last Interglacial record is below the projected temperature warming in the twenty-first century

Changes in obliquity drive tree cover shifts in eastern tropical South America

Despite its great ecological importance, the main factors governing tree cover in tropical savannas as well as savanna-forest boundaries are still largely unknown. Here we address this issue by investigating marine sediment records of long-chain n-alkane stable carbon (δ13Cwax) and hydrogen (δDwax) isotopes from a core collected off eastern tropical South America spanning the last ca. 45 thousand years. While δ13Cwax is a proxy for the main photosynthetic pathway of terrestrial vegetation, tracking the relative proportion of C3 (mainly trees) versus C4 (mainly grasses) plants, δDwax is a proxy for continental precipitation, tracking the intensity of rainfall. The investigated core was collected off the mouth of the São Francisco River drainage basin, a tropical savanna-dominated region with dry austral autumn, winter and spring. On top of millennial-scale changes, driven by anomalies in the amount of precipitation associated with Heinrich Stadials, we identify a marked obliquity control over the expansion and contraction of tree and grass cover. During periods of maximum (minimum) obliquity, trees (grasses) reached maximum coverage. We suggest that maximum (minimum) obliquity decreased (increased) the length of the dry season allowing (hampering) the expansion of tree-dominated vegetation. Periods of maximum obliquity induced an anomalous heating (cooling) of the summer (winter) hemisphere that in combination with a delayed response of the climate system slightly increased autumn precipitation over the São Francisco River drainage basin, through a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone towards or further into the anomalously heated hemisphere. We found that atmospheric CO2 concentration has only a secondary effect on tree cover. Our results underline the importance of the dry season length as a governing factor in the long-term control of tree cover in tropical landscapes.ISSN:0277-379