Teaching hydrological modelling: illustrating model structure uncertainty with a ready-to-use computational exercise

Estimating the impact of different sources of uncertainty along the modelling chain is an important skill graduates are expected to have. Broadly speaking, educators can cover uncertainty in hydrological modelling by differentiating uncertainty in data, model parameters and model structure. This provides students with insights on the impact of uncertainties on modelling results and thus on the usability of the acquired model simulations for decision making. A survey among teachers in the Earth and environmental sciences showed that model structural uncertainty is the least represented uncertainty group in teaching. This paper introduces a computational exercise that introduces students to the basics of model structure uncertainty through two ready-to-use modelling experiments. These experiments require either Matlab or Octave, and use the open-source Modular Assessment of Rainfall-Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) and the open-source Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) data set. The exercise is short and can easily be integrated into an existing hydrological curriculum, with only a limited time investment needed to introduce the topic of model structure uncertainty and run the exercise. Two trial applications at the Technische Universität Dresden (Germany) showed that the exercise can be completed in two afternoons or four 90 min sessions and that the provided setup effectively transfers the intended insights about model structure uncertainty

Random sequential adsorption of shrinking or spreading particles

We present a model of one-dimensional irreversible adsorption in which particles once adsorbed immediately shrink to a smaller size or expand to a larger size. Exact solutions for the fill factor and the particle number variance as a function of the size change are obtained. Results are compared with approximate analytical solutions.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure

Report of the sensor readout electronics panel

The findings of the Sensor Readout Electronics Panel are summarized in regard to technology assessment and recommended development plans. In addition to two specific readout issues, cryogenic readouts and sub-electron noise, the panel considered three advanced technology areas that impact the ability to achieve large format sensor arrays. These are mega-pixel focal plane packaging issues, focal plane to data processing module interfaces, and event driven readout architectures. Development in each of these five areas was judged to have significant impact in enabling the sensor performance desired for the Astrotech 21 mission set. Other readout issues, such as focal plane signal processing or other high volume data acquisition applications important for Eos-type mapping, were determined not to be relevant for astrophysics science goals

Correlation effects in sequential energy branching: an exact model of the Fano statistics

Correlation effects in in the fluctuation of the number of particles in the process of energy branching by sequential impact ionizations are studied using an exactly soluble model of random parking on a line. The Fano factor F calculated in an uncorrelated final-state "shot-glass" model does not give an accurate answer even with the exact gap-distribution statistics. Allowing for the nearest-neighbor correlation effects gives a correction to F that brings F very close to its exact value. We discuss the implications of our results for energy resolution of semiconductor gamma detectors, where the value of F is of the essence. We argue that F is controlled by correlations in the cascade energy branching process and hence the widely used final-state model estimates are not reliable -- especially in the practically relevant cases when the energy branching is terminated by competition between impact ionization and phonon emission.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

The fragmentation threshold of pyroclastic rocks

In response to rapid decompression, porous magma may fragment explosively. This occurs when the melt can no longer withstand forces exerted upon it due to the overpressure in included bubbles. This occurs at a critical pressure difference between the bubbles and the surrounding magma. In this study we have investigated this pressure threshold necessary for the fragmentation of magma. Here we present the first comprehensive, high temperature experimental quantification of the fragmentation threshold of volcanic rocks varying widely in porosity, permeability, crystallinity, and chemical composition. We exposed samples to increasing pressure differentials in a high temperature shock tube apparatus until fragmentation was initiated. Experimentally, we define the fragmentation threshold as the minimum pressure differential that leads to complete fragmentation of the pressurized porous rock sample. Our results show that the fragmentation threshold is strongly dependent on porosity; high porosity samples fragment at lower pressure differentials than low porosity samples. The fragmentation threshold is inversely proportional to the porosity. Of the other factors, permeability likely affects the fragmentation threshold at high porosity values, whereas chemical composition, crystallinity and bubble size distribution appear to have minor effects. The relationship for fragmentation threshold presented here can be used to predict the minimum pressure differential necessary for the initiation or cessation of the explosive fragmentation of porous magma

Intranasal oxytocin reduces provoked symptoms in female patients with posttraumatic stress disorder despite exerting sympathomimetic and positive chronotropic effects in a randomized controlled trial

Background: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a severe psychiatric disease accompanied by neuroendocrine changes such as adrenergic overdrive and hence an elevated cardiovascular morbidity. Current pharmacotherapeutic options for PTSD are less than suboptimal, necessitating the development of PTSD-specific drugs. Although the neuropeptide oxytocin has been repeatedly suggested to be effective in PTSD treatment, there are, to our knowledge, only three studies that have assessed its efficacy on the intensity of PTSD symptoms in PTSD patients - among them one symptom provocation study in male veterans. Methods: To evaluate for the first time how oxytocin influences the intensity of provoked PTSD symptoms and, furthermore, cardiac control in female PTSD patients, we assessed their psychic and cardiac response to trauma-script exposure with and without oxytocin pretreatment in a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled study. We used a within-subject design to study 35 female PTSD patients who received oxytocin and placebo in a 2-week interval. Furthermore, we performed a small pilot study to get an idea of the relation of the stress-modulated endogenous oxytocin levels and heart rate - we correlated oxytocin serum levels with the heart rate of 10 healthy individuals before and after exposure to the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results: Intranasal oxytocin treatment was followed by a reduction of provoked total PTSD symptoms, in particular of avoidance, and by an elevation in baseline and maximum heart rate together with a drop in the pre-ejection period, a marker for sympathetic cardiac control. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between endogenous oxytocin levels and heart rate both before and after TSST challenge in healthy control subjects. Conclusions: This study provides the first evidence that oxytocin treatment reduces the intensity of provoked PTSD symptoms in female PTSD patients. The small size of both samples and the heterogeneity of the patient sample restrict the generalizability of our findings. Future studies have to explore the gender dependency and the tolerability of the oxytocin- mediated increase in heart rate

Restless Legs Syndrome-associated intronic common variant in Meis1 alters enhancer function in the developing telencephalon

This article, published in Genome Research, is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported).-- et al.Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified the MEIS1 locus for Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS), but causal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their functional relevance remain unknown. This locus contains a large number of highly conserved noncoding regions (HCNRs) potentially functioning as cis-regulatory modules. We analyzed these HCNRs for allele-dependent enhancer activity in zebrafish and mice and found that the risk allele of the lead SNP rs12469063 reduces enhancer activity in the Meis1 expression domain of the murine embryonic ganglionic eminences (GE). CREB1 binds this enhancer and rs12469063 affects its binding in vitro. In addition, MEIS1 target genes suggest a role in the specification of neuronal progenitors in the GE, and heterozygous Meis1-deficient mice exhibit hyperactivity, resembling the RLS phenotype. Thus, in vivo and in vitro analysis of a common SNP with small effect size showed allele-dependent function in the prospective basal ganglia representing the first neurodevelopmental region implicated in RLS.The project was supported by Fritz-Thyssen-Stiftung, Cologne, Germany (10.09.2.146; 10.12.2.183), KKF-TUM (8766156), DAAD (0811963), and COST (“HOX and TALE homeoproteins in Development and Disease”). B.S. was partially supported by DFG grants (WI 1820/4-1; WI 1820/5-1) and a TUM-Excellence stipend. The KORA study was financed by the Helmholtz Zentrum München, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by the State of Bavaria. KORA research was supported within the Munich Center of Health Sciences (MC Health), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, as part of LMUinnovativ. J.L.G.-S. and F.C. acknowledge funding of the Spanish and the Andalusian Governments and the Feder program for grants (BFU2010-14839, BFU2009-07044, CSD2007-00008, and Proyectos de Excelencia CVI-3488 and CVI 2658). This work was funded in part by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to the German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), to the German Mouse Clinic (Infrafrontier: 01KX1012), to the German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE), Germany; by the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association in the framework of the Helmholtz Alliance for Mental Research in an Ageing Society (HA-215); and the Munich Cluster for Systems Neurology (EXC 1010 SyNergy) and its Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 870/2 “Assembly and Function of Neuronal Circuits.”Peer Reviewe

Acute transverse myelitis and psoriasiform dermatitis associated with Sjoegren’s syndrome: a case report

BACKGROUND: Clinical complications of Sjoegren’s syndrome include myelitis and skin manifestations. There is scarce observational data and a lack of randomised controlled studies regarding the treatment of Sjoegren’s syndrome in the presence of such complications. CASE PRESENTATION: Here we report the case of a 41-year-old Caucasian female patient with biopsy-proven Sjoegren’s syndrome who initially presented with generalized exanthema and subsequently developed acute extensive transverse myelitis. In view of the rapid deterioration we opted for an intensive treatment using a combination of corticosteroid pulse therapy, plasmapheresis and cyclophosphamide, which we later changed to rituximab. Under that treatment the skin manifestations resolved entirely whereas transverse myelitis showed incomplete remission. CONCLUSION: Severe neurological and dermatological complications may occur in Sjoegren’s syndrome. This suggests a close yet currently unclear pathogenetic relationship. Intensive immunosuppressant treatment resulted in significant improvement of both symptom clusters. Skin manifestations may precede other severe complications in Sjoegren’s syndrome and therefore require particular attention

The EBEX Experiment

EBEX is a balloon-borne polarimeter designed to measure the intensity and polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation. The measurements would probe the inflationary epoch that took place shortly after the big bang and would significantly improve constraints on the values of several cosmological parameters. EBEX is unique in its broad frequency coverage and in its ability to provide critical information about the level of polarized Galactic foregrounds which will be necessary for all future CMB polarization experiments. EBEX consists of a 1.5 m Dragone-type telescope that provides a resolution of less than 8 arcminutes over four focal planes each of 4 degree diffraction limited field of view at frequencies up to 450 GHz. The experiment is designed to accommodate 330 transition edge bolometric detectors per focal plane, for a total of up to 1320 detectors. EBEX will operate with frequency bands centered at 150, 250, 350, and 450 GHz. Polarimetry is achieved with a rotating achromatic half-wave plate. EBEX is currently in the design and construction phase, and first light is scheduled for 2008.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures. Figure 1 is changed from the one which appeared in the Proceedings of the SPI