Modeling investigation of northern hemisphere extratropical storm variability and changes in a warming climate

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014Extratropical cyclones are fundamental elements for shaping weather patterns, causing fluctuations of temperatures, bringing rain or snow, and carrying winds to impact daily life. The intensity and number of North Hemisphere extratropical cyclones have demonstrated large interannual variability and long-term changes. To understand the variability and changes, we conducted a modeling investigation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model. Specifically, we examined the effects of two surface forcing factors, including sea surface temperature (SST) associated with El Niño and Arctic sea-ice cover, which represent a major source of natural variability and climate changes. Our modeling investigation indicates that the tropical Pacific SST and Arctic sea ice have significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude and Arctic cyclone activities. The elevated tropical Pacific SST leads to more numerous intense storms over southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern North America, but fewer weaker storms over the northeast. The underlying physical mechanism is enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity, which is attributable to a southward shift and an intensification of the subtropical jet. The decreased Arctic sea-ice cover leads to an increased storm activity over the Arctic but a decrease in the mid-latitudes. A corresponding examination of surface climate shows anomalously higher surface air temperature and precipitation when low Arctic sea-ice cover occurs, due to an integrative contribution from an increase in surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and horizontal heat advection. In contrast, reduced Arctic sea ice weakens storm activity and intensifies anticyclones over Eurasia, giving rise to decreased surface air temperature and precipitation. Unlike many other parameters, the Arctic sea ice has shown a dramatic decline in addition to interannual fluctuations. We therefore conducted further modeling experiments to identify the role of this long term sea-ice trend on storm activity. The results show that the long-term decline causes a weakening of overall storm activity but an increase in extreme storm events over the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric energetic analysis suggests that the increased conversion rate between transient available potential energy and transient kinetic energy is a leading factor in supporting the increased frequency of extreme storms. Over Eurasia, changes in storm activity are mainly governed by the mean kinetic energy of the atmospheric circulation and its conversion to the transient kinetic energy.Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter. North American winter-spring storms: modeling investigation on tropical Pacific sea surface temperature impacts -- Chapter 3. Response of Northern Hemisphere mid- and high- latitude storm activity to Arctic Sea ice forcing: a modeling investigation -- Chapter 4. Role of Arctic Sea ice declining trend in Northern Hemisphere storm activity: a modeling investigation -- Chapter 5. Summary and conclusions

Selection of Non-Crop Plant Mixes Informed by Arthropod-Plant Network Analyses for Multiple Ecosystem Services Delivery towards Ecological Intensification of Agriculture

Ecological intensification (EI) of agriculture through the improvement of ecosystem service delivery has recently emerged as the alternative to the conventional intensification of agriculture that is widely considered unsustainable and has negative impacts on the environment. Although tropical agricultural landscapes are still heterogeneous, they are rapidly losing diversity due to agricultural intensification. Restoration of natural or semi-natural habitats, habitat diversity, and provision of multiple benefits have been identified as important targets for the transition to EI. Choosing the right plant mixes for the restoration of habitats that can offer multiple ecosystem service benefits is therefore crucial. The selection of candidate species for plant mixes is generally informed by studies focusing on a specific ecosystem service (e.g., pollination) and not based on the whole arthropod—non-crop plant interactions matrix. In this study, we try to identify non-crop plant mixes that would provide habitat for pollinators, act as refugia for natural pest predators, and also as a trap crop for potential crop pests by studying non-crop plants—arthropod interaction network. We have identified the non-crop plant species mixes by first identifying the connector species based on their centrality in the network and then by studying how their sequential exclusions affect the stability of the network

Predicted thresholds for natural vegetation cover to safeguard pollinator services in agricultural landscapes

This is the author accepted manuscriptThe conversion of natural vegetation into cultivated land can cause pollinator declines and thereby degrade pollination services to crops and wildflowers. The effect of landscape composition on pollinator abundance is well established, but its impact on pollination intensity and crop yield is not fully resolved. We therefore studied pollination of two crops in India, brinjal (Solanum melongena) and mustard (Brassica nigra), along a landscape-scale gradient in habitat transformation from forest-dominated natural vegetation to intensive cultivation. We quantified the pollination requirements (pollen receipt-seed set relationships) of the crops and the levels of pollen delivery by their principal pollinators, bees. Combining these with field surveys of pollinator abundance, we modelled the levels of pollination service to fields along the landscape gradient. Projected pollination services declined as the area occupied by natural vegetation decreased. We identified thresholds at which bee pollination no longer supported maximum seed set, which were landscapes with approximately one quarter (27 %) of nearby natural vegetation for brinjal fields and one fifth (18 %) for mustard. Our findings indicate that preserving or restoring the cover of natural habitats above these minimum thresholds could be a valuable strategy for maintaining pollinator abundance and safeguarding yield in these bee-pollinated crops.Darwin Initiativ

Comprehensive public health evaluation of lockdown as a non-pharmaceutical intervention on COVID-19 spread in India: national trends masking state-level variations

Objectives To evaluate the effect of four-phase national lockdown from March 25 to May 31 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in India and unmask the state-wise variations in terms of multiple public health metrics. Design Cohort study (daily time series of case counts). Setting Observational and population based. Participants Confirmed COVID-19 cases nationally and across 20 states that accounted for \u3e99% of the current cumulative case counts in India until 31 May 2020. Exposure Lockdown (non-medical intervention). Main outcomes and measures We illustrate the masking of state-level trends and highlight the variations across states by presenting evaluative evidence on some aspects of the COVID-19 outbreak: case fatality rates, doubling times of cases, effective reproduction numbers and the scale of testing. Results The estimated effective reproduction number R for India was 3.36 (95% CI 3.03 to 3.71) on 24 March, whereas the average of estimates from 25 May to 31 May stands at 1.27 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.28). Similarly, the estimated doubling time across India was at 3.56 days on 24 March, and the past 7-day average for the same on 31 May is 14.37 days. The average daily number of tests increased from 1717 (19–25 March) to 113 372 (25–31 May) while the test positivity rate increased from 2.1% to 4.2%, respectively. However, various states exhibit substantial departures from these national patterns. Conclusions Patterns of change over lockdown periods indicate the lockdown has been partly effective in slowing the spread of the virus nationally. However, there exist large state-level variations and identifying these variations can help in both understanding the dynamics of the pandemic and formulating effective public health interventions. Our framework offers a holistic assessment of the pandemic across Indian states and union territories along with a set of interactive visualisation tools that are daily updated at covind19.org

The last mile:Using local knowledge to identify barriers to sustainable grain legume production

Grain legumes (or pulses–annual leguminous crops that are harvested solely for their dried seeds such as lentils or chickpeas) are essential for sustainable cropping systems. They positively contribute to soil fertility and agricultural biodiversity and are a highly nutritious food source, yet they remain under-exploited across the world. In India–soon to be the world's most populous country and the world's largest importer, producer and consumer of pulses–they are substantially under-utilized and are the only major food group not to have increased in output since independence in 1947. Existing efforts to address low grain legume production have focused on the scientific and agronomic barriers, with little impact on productivity. In contrast, this project, using Tripura in India as a case study, recognizes the limits of imposing top-down solutions and instead focuses on the barriers to production as identified by the growers themselves. Working with 440 farmers from 19 non-tribal and 11 tribal villages in Tripura, NE India, we used facilitated discussion to identify their key barriers to pulse production, and facilitated pile sorting to identify the commonly consumed, grown and available pulses. Twenty-eight barriers to legume production were identified by farmers. The eight principal barriers were: insufficient water; lack of technical knowledge; unreliable seed supply; lack of processing units; soil fertility; financial constraints; limited fertilizer supply; and insufficient fencing material. These barriers are complex and overlapping and originate from system level failures to sufficiently prioritise grain legumes compared to cereals. However, recognizing the length of time it takes to address system level problems, in this paper we identify five immediately applicable mitigating strategies to help overcome the principle barriers identified here. Importantly, these will also create an improved environment to apply the technologically sophisticated grain legume R&D that has been carried out over the last 20 years but has yet to have a measurable impact on pulse production. Therefore understanding the wider socio-economic pathways to sustainable pulse production is essential to facilitate change on the ground. Our results, relevant to policy makers in India and around the world, demonstrate the value of listening to farmers when attempting to improve production, and emphasize the necessity of including the socio-economic systems surrounding pulse production, to complement the current emphasis on biological barriers

Rotation of pear-shaped 100^{100}Ru nucleus

Atomic nuclei in general can have deformed shapes and nearly all these shapes are symmetric with respect to reflection. Only a few Actinide nuclei have stable reflection asymmetric pear shapes in their ground state and exhibit characteristic rotational bands. In this article, we report on the observation of two alternate parity rotational bands in 100Ru, which are connected by seven interleaved electric dipole transitions and their rates are found to be enhanced. In addition, the moments of inertia associated with these two opposite parity rotational bands have been found to be similar. These experimental observations indicate the rotation of a stable pear-shaped 100Ru nucleus, which is the first such observation outside the Actinide mass region. This shape is built on an excited configuration and originates from the rotational alignment of the angular momenta of a pair of neutrons. This unique observation establishes an alternate mechanism by which an atomic nucleus can assume a pear shape.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Collating and validating indigenous and local knowledge to apply multiple knowledge systems to an environmental challenge: A case-study of pollinators in India

There is an important role for indigenous and local knowledge in a Multiple Evidence Base to make decisions about the use of biodiversity and its management. This is important both to ensure that the knowledge base is complete (comprising both scientific and local knowledge) and to facilitate participation in the decision making process. We present a novel method to gather evidence in which we used a peer-to-peer validation process among farmers that we suggest is analogous to scientific peer review. We used a case-study approach to trial the process focussing on pollinator decline in India. Pollinator decline is a critical challenge for which there is a growing evidence base, however, this is not the case world–wide. In the state of Orissa, India, there are no validated scientific studies that record historical pollinator abundance, therefore local knowledge can contribute substantially and may indeed be the principle component of the available knowledge base. Our aim was to collate and validate local knowledge in preparation for integration with scientific knowledge from other regions, for the purpose of producing a Multiple Evidence Base to develop conservation strategies for pollinators. Farmers reported that vegetable crop yields were declining in many areas of Orissa and that the abundance of important insect crop pollinators has declined sharply across the study area in the last 10–25 years, particularly Apis cerana, Amegilla sp. and Xylocopa sp. Key pollinators for commonly grown crops were identified; both Apris cerana and Xylocopa sp. were ranked highly as pollinators by farmer participants. Crop yield declines were attributed to soil quality, water management, pests, climate change, overuse of chemical inputs and lack of agronomic expertise. Pollinator declines were attributed to the quantity and number of pesticides used. Farmers suggested that fewer pesticides, more natural habitat and the introduction of hives would support pollinator populations. This process of knowledge creation was supported by participants, which led to this paper being co-authored by both scientists and farmers

Wild insect diversity increases inter-annual stability in global crop pollinator communities.

While an increasing number of studies indicate that range, diversity and abundance of many wild pollinators has declined, the global area of pollinator-dependent crops has significantly increased over the last few decades. Crop pollination studies to date, have mainly focused on either identifying different guilds pollinating various crops, or on factors driving spatial changes and turnover observed in these communities. The mechanisms driving temporal stability for ecosystem functioning and services, however, remain poorly understood. Our study quantifies temporal variability observed in crop pollinators in 21 different crops across multiple years at a global scale. Using data from 43 studies from six continents, we show that (i) higher pollinator diversity confers greater inter-annual stability in pollinator communities, (ii) temporal variation observed in pollinator abundance is primarily driven by the three most dominant species, and (iii) crops in tropical regions demonstrate higher inter-annual variability in pollinator species richness than crops in temperate regions. We highlight the importance of recognising wild pollinator diversity in agricultural landscapes to stabilize pollinator persistence across years to protect both biodiversity and crop pollination services. Short-term agricultural management practices aimed at dominant species for stabilising pollination services need to be considered alongside longer-term conservation goals focussed on maintaining and facilitating biodiversity to confer ecological stability