Variational assimilation of IASI SO2 plume height and total column retrievals in the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull using the SILAM v5.3 chemistry transport model

This study focuses on two new aspects of inverse modelling of volcanic emissions. First, we derive an observation operator for satellite retrievals of plume height, and second, we solve the inverse problem using an algorithm based on the 4D-Var data assimilation method. The approach is first tested in a twin experiment with simulated observations and further evaluated by assimilating IASI SO2 plume height and total column retrievals in a source term inversion for the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull. The inversion resulted in temporal and vertical reconstruction of the SO2 emissions during 1–20 May 2010 with formal vertical and temporal resolutions of 500 m and 12 h.The plume height observation operator is based on simultaneous assimilation of the plume height and total column retrievals. The plume height is taken to represent the vertical centre of mass, which is transformed into the first moment of mass (centre of mass times total mass). This makes the observation operator linear and simple to implement. The necessary modifications to the observation error covariance matrix are derived.Regularization by truncated iteration is investigated as a simple and efficient regularization method for the 4D-Var-based inversion. In the twin experiments, the truncated iteration was found to perform similarly to the commonly used Tikhonov regularization, which in turn is equivalent to a Gaussian a priori source term. However, the truncated iteration allows the level of regularization to be determined a posteriori without repeating the inversion.In the twin experiments, assimilating the plume height retrievals resulted in a 5–20 % improvement in root mean squared error but simultaneously introduced a 10–20 % low bias on the total emission depending on assumed emission profile. The results are consistent with those obtained with real data. For Eyjafjallajökull, comparisons with observations showed that assimilating the plume height retrievals reduced the overestimation of injection height during individual periods of 1–3 days, but for most of the simulated 20 days, the injection height was constrained by meteorological conditions, and assimilation of the plume height retrievals had only small impact. The a posteriori source term for Eyjafjallajökull consisted of 0.29 Tg (with total column and plume height retrievals) or 0.33 Tg (with total column retrievals only) erupted SO2 of which 95 % was injected below 11 or 12 km, respectively

Simulating age of air and the distribution of SF6_{6} in the stratosphere with the SILAM model

he paper presents a comparative study of age of air (AoA) derived from several approaches: a widely used passive-tracer accumulation method, the SF6 accumulation, and a direct calculation of an ideal-age tracer. The simulations were performed with the Eulerian chemistry transport model SILAM driven with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 1980–2018. The Eulerian environment allowed for simultaneous application of several approaches within the same simulation and interpretation of the obtained differences. A series of sensitivity simulations revealed the role of the vertical profile of turbulent diffusion in the stratosphere, destruction of SF$_{6}$ in the mesosphere, and the effect of gravitational separation of gases with strongly different molar masses. The simulations reproduced well the main features of the SF$_{6}$ distribution in the atmosphere observed by the MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) satellite instrument. It was shown that the apparent very old air in the upper stratosphere derived from the SF$_{6}$ profile observations is a result of destruction and gravitational separation of this gas in the upper stratosphere and the mesosphere. These processes make the apparent SF$_{6}$ AoA in the stratosphere several years older than the ideal-age AoA, which, according to our calculations, does not exceed 6–6.5 years. The destruction of SF$_{6}$ and the varying rate of emission make SF$_{6}$ unsuitable for reliably deriving AoA or its trends. However, observations of SF$_{6}$ provide a very useful dataset for validation of the stratospheric circulation in a model with the properly implemented SF$_{6}$ loss

Turbulent Diffusion and Turbulent Thermal Diffusion of Aerosols in Stratified Atmospheric Flows

The paper analyzes the phenomenon of turbulent thermal diffusion in the Earth atmosphere, its relation to the turbulent diffusion and its potential impact on aerosol distribution. This phenomenon was predicted theoretically more than 10 years ago and detected recently in the laboratory experiments. This effect causes a non-diffusive flux of aerosols in the direction of the heat flux and results in formation of long-living aerosol layers in the vicinity of temperature inversions. We demonstrated that the theory of turbulent thermal diffusion explains the GOMOS aerosol observations near the tropopause (i.e., the observed shape of aerosol vertical profiles with elevated concentrations located almost symmetrically with respect to temperature profile). In combination with the derived expression for the dependence of the turbulent thermal diffusion ratio on the turbulent diffusion, these measurements yield an independent method for determining the coefficient of turbulent diffusion at the tropopause. We evaluated the impact of turbulent thermal diffusion to the lower-troposphere vertical profiles of aerosol concentration by means of numerical dispersion modelling, and found a regular upward forcing of aerosols with coarse particles affected stronger than fine aerosols.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figure

Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release

International audienceIn the event of an accidental atmospheric release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, accurate real-time forecasting of the activity concentrations of radionuclides is required by the decision makers for the preparation of adequate countermeasures. The accuracy of the forecast plume is highly dependent on the source term estimation. On several academic test cases, including real data, inverse modelling and data assimilation techniques were proven to help in the assessment of the source term. In this paper, a semi-automatic method is proposed for the sequential reconstruction of the plume, by implementing a sequential data assimilation algorithm based on inverse modelling, with a care to develop realistic methods for operational risk agencies. The performance of the assimilation scheme has been assessed through the intercomparison between French and Finnish frameworks. Two dispersion models have been used: Polair3D and Silam developed in two different research centres. Different release locations, as well as different meteorological situations are tested. The existing and newly planned surveillance networks are used and realistically large multiplicative observational errors are assumed. The inverse modelling scheme accounts for strong error bias encountered with such errors. The efficiency of the data assimilation system is tested via statistical indicators. For France and Finland, the average performance of the data assimilation system is strong. However there are outlying situations where the inversion fails because of a too poor observability. In addition, in the case where the power plant responsible for the accidental release is not known, robust statistical tools are developed and tested to discriminate candidate release sites

Towards the operational application of inverse modelling for the source identification and plume forecast of an accidental release of radionuclides

International audienceIn the event of an accidental atmospheric release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, accurate real-time forecasting of the activity concentrations of radionuclides is required by the decision makers for the preparation of adequate countermeasures. Yet, the accuracy of the forecast plume is highly dependent on the source term estimation. Inverse modelling and data assimilation techniques should help in that respect. In this presentation, a semi-automatic method is proposed for the sequential reconstruction of the plume, by implementing a sequential data assimilation algorithm based on inverse modelling, with a care to develop realistic methods for operational risk agencies. The performance of the assimilation scheme has been assessed through the intercomparison between French and Finnish frameworks. Three dispersion models have been used: Polair3D, with or without plume-in-grid, both developed at CEREA, and SILAM, developed at FMI. Different release locations, as well as different meteorological situations are tested. The existing and newly planned surveillance networks are used and realistically large observational errors are assumed. Statistical indicators to evaluate the efficiency of the method are presented and the results are discussed. In addition, in the case where the power plant responsible for the accidental release is not known, robust statistical tools aredeveloped and tested to discriminate candidate release sites

Inter- and intra-scanner variations in four magnetic resonance imaging image quality parameters

Peer reviewe

Pest insect immigration warning system by an atmospheric dispersion model, weather radars and traps

Peer reviewe

Incorporation of pollen data in source maps is vital for pollen dispersion models

Information about distribution of pollen sources, i.e. their presence and abundance in a specific region, is important especially when atmospheric transport models are applied to forecast pollen concentrations. The goal of this study is to evaluate three pollen source maps using an atmospheric transport model and study the effect on the model results by combining these source maps with pollen data. Here we evaluate three maps for the birch taxon: (1) a map derived by combining land cover data and forest inventory; (2) a map obtained from land cover data and calibrated using model simulations and pollen observations; (3) a statistical map resulting from analysis of forest inventory and forest plot data. The maps were introduced to the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model) as input data to simulate birch pollen concentrations over Europe for the birch pollen season 2006. 18 model runs were performed using each of the selected maps in turn with and without calibration with observed pollen data from 2006. The model results were compared with the pollen observation data at 12 measurement sites located in Finland, Denmark and Russia.We show that calibration of the maps using pollen observations significantly improved the model performance for all three maps. The findings also indicate the large sensitivity of the model results to the source maps and agree well with other studies on birch showing that pollen or hybrid-based source maps provide the best model performance. This study highlights the importance of including pollen data in the production of source maps for pollen dispersion modelling and for exposure studies

Evaluation of the performance of four chemical transport models in predicting the aerosol chemical composition in Europe in 2005

© Author(s) 2016.Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution 20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2:5 by 10–60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20% for PM2:5 and between 10 and 25% for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO3, were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models’ predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models’ skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model–measurement comparison.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio