Looking ahead: forecasting and planning for the longer-range future, April 1, 2, and 3, 2005

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's spring Conference that took place during April 1, 2, and 3, 2005.The conference allowed for many highly esteemed scholars and professionals from a broad range of fields to come together to discuss strategies designed for the 21st century and beyond. The speakers and discussants covered a broad range of subjects including: long-term policy analysis, forecasting for business and investment, the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 report, Europe’s transition from the Marshal plan to the EU, forecasting global transitions, foreign policy planning, and forecasting for defense

The thermal emission of the exoplanets WASP-1b and WASP-2b

We present a comparative study of the thermal emission of the transiting exoplanets WASP-1b and WASP-2b using the Spitzer Space Telescope. The two planets have very similar masses but suffer different levels of irradiation and are predicted to fall either side of a sharp transition between planets with and without hot stratospheres. WASP-1b is one of the most highly irradiated planets studied to date. We measure planet/star contrast ratios in all four of the IRAC bands for both planets (3.6-8.0um), and our results indicate the presence of a strong temperature inversion in the atmosphere of WASP-1b, particularly apparent at 8um, and no inversion in WASP-2b. In both cases the measured eclipse depths favor models in which incident energy is not redistributed efficiently from the day side to the night side of the planet. We fit the Spitzer light curves simultaneously with the best available radial velocity curves and transit photometry in order to provide updated measurements of system parameters. We do not find significant eccentricity in the orbit of either planet, suggesting that the inflated radius of WASP-1b is unlikely to be the result of tidal heating. Finally, by plotting ratios of secondary eclipse depths at 8um and 4.5um against irradiation for all available planets, we find evidence for a sharp transition in the emission spectra of hot Jupiters at an irradiation level of 2 x 10^9 erg/s/cm^2. We suggest this transition may be due to the presence of TiO in the upper atmospheres of the most strongly irradiated hot Jupiters.Comment: 10 pages, submitted to Ap

Perspectives on Astrophysics Based on Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) Techniques

About two generations ago, a large part of AMO science was dominated by experimental high energy collision studies and perturbative theoretical methods. Since then, AMO science has undergone a transition and is now dominated by quantum, ultracold, and ultrafast studies. But in the process, the field has passed over the complexity that lies between these two extremes. Most of the Universe resides in this intermediate region. We put forward that the next frontier for AMO science is to explore the AMO complexity that describes most of the Cosmos.Comment: White paper submission to the Decadal Assessment and Outlook Report on Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) Science (AMO 2020

Patterns of Recovery from Severe Mental Illness: A Pilot Study of Outcomes

We performed a pilot study examining the patterns of recovery from severe mental illness in a model integrated service delivery system using measures from the Milestones of Recovery Scale (MORS), a valid and reliable measure of recovery outcomes which ranges from 1 to 8 (8 levels). For purposes of presentation, we constructed an aggregate MORS (6 levels) where the levels are described as follows: (1) extreme risk; (2) unengaged, poorly self-coordinating; (3) engaged, poorly self-coordinating; (4) coping and rehabilitating; (5) early recovery, and (6) self reliant. We analyzed MORS data on individuals followed over time from The Village in Long Beach, California (658 observations). Using Markov Chains, we estimated origin-destination transition probabilities, simulating recovery outcomes for 100 months. Our models suggest that after 12 months only 8% of “extreme risk” clients remain such. Over 40% have moved to “engaged, poorly self-coordinating.” After 2 years, almost half of the initial “extreme Risk” clients are “coping/rehabilitating”, “early recovery” or “Self reliant.” Most gains occur within 2 years

Resistive Exercise for Arthritic Cartilage Health (REACH): A randomized double-blind, sham-exercise controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This article provides the rationale and methodology, of the first randomised controlled trial to our knowledge designed to assess the efficacy of progressive resistance training on cartilage morphology in women with knee osteoarthritis.</p> <p>Development and progression of osteoarthritis is multifactorial, with obesity, quadriceps weakness, joint malalignment, and abnormal mechanical joint forces particularly relevant to this study. Progressive resistance training has been reported to improve pain and disability in osteoarthritic cohorts. However, the disease-modifying potential of progressive resistance training for the articular cartilage degeneration characteristic of osteoarthritis is unknown. Our aim was to investigate the effect of high intensity progressive resistance training on articular cartilage degeneration in women with knee osteoarthritis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our cohort consisted of women over 40 years of age with primary knee osteoarthritis, according to the American College of Rheumatology clinical criteria. Primary outcome was blinded measurement of cartilage morphology via magnetic resonance imaging scan of the tibiofemoral joint. Secondary outcomes included walking endurance, balance, muscle strength, endurance, power, and velocity, body composition, pain, disability, depressive symptoms, and quality of life.</p> <p>Participants were randomized into a supervised progressive resistance training or sham-exercise group. The progressive resistance training group trained muscles around the hip and knee at 80% of their peak strength and progressed 3% per session, 3 days per week for 6 months. The sham-exercise group completed all exercises except hip adduction, but without added resistance or progression. Outcomes were repeated at 3 and 6 months, except for the magnetic resonance imaging scan, which was only repeated at 6 months.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Our results will provide an evaluation of the disease-modifying potential of progressive resistance training for osteoarthritis.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ANZCTR Reference No. 12605000116628</p