51 research outputs found

    Suzbijanje geografskog širenja zaraze: kuga u Italiji od 1347.-1851.

    Get PDF
    After the establishment of the first quarantine station in the Republic of Ragusa (modern-day Dubrovnik) in 1377, the states and principalities of Italy developed a sophisticated system of defensive quarantine in an attempt to protect themselves from the ravages of plague. Using largely unknown and unseen historical maps, this paper reconstructs the extent and operation of the system used. It is shown that a cordon sanitaire existed around the coast of Italy for several centuries, consisting of three elements: (i) an outer defensive ring of armed sailing boats in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic, (ii) a middle coastal ring of forts and observation towers, and (iii) an inner defensive ring of land-based cavalry. The principles established, although not especially successful at the time against a disease of (then) unknown aetiology, are still used today in attempts to control the spread of infections of animal and human populations.Nakon uspostave prvoga lazareta u Dubrovačkoj Republici 1377., talijanske državice i kneževine razradile su sustav karantena kako bi se zaštitile od razarajućega djelovanja kuge. Oslanjajući se mahom na dosad nepoznate povijesne karte, u ovome se članku rekonstruira kako je i u kojem razmjeru djelovao sustav zaštite. Duž talijanske obale stoljećima je postojao sanitarni kordon, a sastojao se od tri dijela: (i) vanjski pojas sastavljen od naoružanih jedrenjaka na Sredozemnom i Jadranskome moru, (ii) srednji obrambeni pojas sastavljen od utvrda i promatračnica te (iii) unutarnji obrambeni pojas na kopnu sastavljen od konjice. Premda ovaj sustav svojevremeno i nije bio pretjerano uspješan u zaštiti od bolesti (tada) nepoznate etiologije, njegova se načela još uvijek rabe za sprječavanje širenja bolesti među ljudima i životinjama

    Pandemic Influenza and Covid-19: Geographical Velocity and Control

    Get PDF

    Spatial Growth Rate of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021

    Get PDF
    This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81 × faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population

    Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation

    Get PDF
    The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence

    Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021

    Get PDF
    This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population

    Armed conflicts have an impact on the spread of tuberculosis: the case of the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p/> <p>A pessimistic view of the impact of armed conflicts on the control of infectious diseases has generated great interest in the role of conflicts on the global TB epidemic. Nowhere in the world is such interest more palpable than in the Horn of Africa Region, comprising Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan. An expanding literature has demonstrated that armed conflicts stall disease control programs through distraction of health system, interruption of patients' ability to seek health care, and the diversion of economic resources to military ends rather than health needs. Nonetheless, until very recently, no research has been done to address the impact of armed conflict on TB epidemics in the Somali Regional State (SRS) of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study is based on the cross-sectional data collected in 2007, utilizing structured questionnaires filled-out by a sample of 226 TB patients in the SRS of Ethiopia. Data was obtained on the delay patients experienced in receiving a diagnosis of TB, on the biomedical knowledge of TB that patients had, and the level of self-treatment by patients. The outcome variables in this study are the delay in the diagnosis of TB experienced by patients, and extent of self-treatment utilized by patients. Our main explanatory variable was place of residence, which was dichotomized as being in 'conflict zones' and in 'non-conflict zones'. Demographic data was collected for statistical control. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests were used on calculations of group differences. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between outcome and predictor variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two hundred and twenty six TB patients were interviewed. The median delay in the diagnosis of TB was 120 days and 60 days for patients from conflict zones and from non-conflict zones, respectively. Moreover, 74% of the patients residing in conflict zones undertook self-treatment prior to their diagnosis. The corresponding proportion from non-conflict zones was 45%. Fully adjusted logistic regression analysis shows that patients from conflict zones had significantly greater odds of delay (OR = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.47-6.36) and higher self treatment utilization (OR = 3.34; 95% CI: 1.56-7.12) compared to those from non-conflict zones.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients from conflict zones have a longer delay in receiving a diagnosis of TB and have higher levels of self treatment utilization. This suggests that access to TB care should be improved by the expansion of user friendly directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS) in the conflict zones of the region.</p

    Tracking the spatial diffusion of influenza and norovirus using telehealth data: A spatiotemporal analysis of syndromic data

    Get PDF
    Background: Telehealth systems have a large potential for informing public health authorities in an early stage of outbreaks of communicable disease. Influenza and norovirus are common viruses that cause significant respiratory and gastrointestinal disease worldwide. Data about these viruses are not routinely mapped for surveillance purposes in the UK, so the spatial diffusion of national outbreaks and epidemics is not known as such incidents occur. We aim to describe the geographical origin and diffusion of rises in fever and vomiting calls to a national telehealth system, and consider the usefulness of these findings for influenza and norovirus surveillance. Methods: Data about fever calls (5- to 14-year-old age group) and vomiting calls (≥ 5-year-old age group) in school-age children, proxies for influenza and norovirus, respectively, were extracted from the NHS Direct national telehealth database for the period June 2005 to May 2006. The SaTScan space-time permutation model was used to retrospectively detect statistically significant clusters of calls on a week-by-week basis. These syndromic results were validated against existing laboratory and clinical surveillance data. Results: We identified two distinct periods of elevated fever calls. The first originated in the North-West of England during November 2005 and spread in a south-east direction, the second began in Central England during January 2006 and moved southwards. The timing, geographical location, and age structure of these rises in fever calls were similar to a national influenza B outbreak that occurred during winter 2005–2006. We also identified significantly elevated levels of vomiting calls in South-East England during winter 2005–2006. Conclusion: Spatiotemporal analyses of telehealth data, specifically fever calls, provided a timely and unique description of the evolution of a national influenza outbreak. In a similar way the tool may be useful for tracking norovirus, although the lack of consistent comparison data makes this more difficult to assess. In interpreting these results, care must be taken to consider other infectious and non-infectious causes of fever and vomiting. The scan statistic should be considered for spatial analyses of telehealth data elsewhere and will be used to initiate prospective geographical surveillance of influenza in England.

    H5N1 and 1918 Pandemic Influenza Virus Infection Results in Early and Excessive Infiltration of Macrophages and Neutrophils in the Lungs of Mice

    Get PDF
    Fatal human respiratory disease associated with the 1918 pandemic influenza virus and potentially pandemic H5N1 viruses is characterized by severe lung pathology, including pulmonary edema and extensive inflammatory infiltrate. Here, we quantified the cellular immune response to infection in the mouse lung by flow cytometry and demonstrate that mice infected with highly pathogenic (HP) H1N1 and H5N1 influenza viruses exhibit significantly high numbers of macrophages and neutrophils in the lungs compared to mice infected with low pathogenic (LP) viruses. Mice infected with the 1918 pandemic virus and a recent H5N1 human isolate show considerable similarities in overall lung cellularity, lung immune cell sub-population composition and cellular immune temporal dynamics. Interestingly, while these similarities were observed, the HP H5N1 virus consistently elicited significantly higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in whole lungs and primary human macrophages, revealing a potentially critical difference in the pathogenesis of H5N1 infections. These results together show that infection with HP influenza viruses such as H5N1 and the 1918 pandemic virus leads to a rapid cell recruitment of macrophages and neutrophils into the lungs, suggesting that these cells play a role in acute lung inflammation associated with HP influenza virus infection. In addition, primary macrophages and dendritic cells were also susceptible to 1918 and H5N1 influenza virus infection in vitro and in infected mouse lung tissue

    Civil conflict and sleeping sickness in Africa in general and Uganda in particular

    Get PDF
    Conflict and war have long been recognized as determinants of infectious disease risk. Re-emergence of epidemic sleeping sickness in sub-Saharan Africa since the 1970s has coincided with extensive civil conflict in affected regions. Sleeping sickness incidence has placed increasing pressure on the health resources of countries already burdened by malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. In areas of Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Angola, sleeping sickness occurs in epidemic proportions, and is the first or second greatest cause of mortality in some areas, ahead of HIV/AIDS. In Uganda, there is evidence of increasing spread and establishment of new foci in central districts. Conflict is an important determinant of sleeping sickness outbreaks, and has contributed to disease resurgence. This paper presents a review and characterization of the processes by which conflict has contributed to the occurrence of sleeping sickness in Africa. Conflict contributes to disease risk by affecting the transmission potential of sleeping sickness via economic impacts, degradation of health systems and services, internal displacement of populations, regional insecurity, and reduced access for humanitarian support. Particular focus is given to the case of sleeping sickness in south-eastern Uganda, where incidence increase is expected to continue. Disease intervention is constrained in regions with high insecurity; in these areas, political stabilization, localized deployment of health resources, increased administrative integration and national capacity are required to mitigate incidence. Conflict-related variables should be explicitly integrated into risk mapping and prioritization of targeted sleeping sickness research and mitigation initiatives

    Vulnerability to high risk sexual behaviour (HRSB) following exposure to war trauma as seen in post-conflict communities in eastern uganda: a qualitative study

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Much of the literature on the relationship between conflict-related trauma and high risk sexual behaviour (HRSB) often focuses on refugees and not mass in-country displaced people due to armed conflicts. There is paucity of research about contexts underlying HRSB and HIV/AIDS in conflict and post-conflict communities in Uganda. Understanding factors that underpin vulnerability to HRSB in post-conflict communities is vital in designing HIV/AIDS prevention interventions. We explored the socio-cultural factors, social interactions, socio-cultural practices, social norms and social network structures that underlie war trauma and vulnerability to HRSB in a post-conflict population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We did a cross-sectional qualitative study of 3 sub-counties in <it>Katakwi </it>district and 1 in <it>Amuria </it>in Uganda between March and May 2009. We collected data using 8 FGDs, 32 key informant interviews and 16 in-depth interviews. We tape-recorded and transcribed the data. We followed thematic analysis principles to manage, analyse and interpret the data. We constantly identified and compared themes and sub-themes in the dataset as we read the transcripts. We used illuminating verbatim quotations to illustrate major findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The commonly identified HRSB behaviours include; transactional sex, sexual predation, multiple partners, early marriages and forced marriages. Breakdown of the social structure due to conflict had resulted in economic destruction and a perceived soaring of vulnerable people whose propensity to HRSB is high. Dishonour of sexual sanctity through transactional sex and practices like incest mirrored the consequence of exposure to conflict. HRSB was associated with concentration of people in camps where idleness and unemployment were the norm. Reports of girls and women who had been victims of rape and defilement by men with guns were common. Many people were known to have started to display persistent worries, hopelessness, and suicidal ideas and to abuse alcohol.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study demonstrated that conflicts disrupt the socio-cultural set up of communities and destroy sources of people's livelihood. Post-conflict socio-economic reconstruction needs to encompass programmes that restructure people's morals and values through counselling. HIV/AIDS prevention programming in post-conflict communities should deal with socio-cultural disruptions that emerged during conflicts. Some of the disruptions if not dealt with, could become normalized yet they are predisposing factors to HRSB. Socio-economic vulnerability as a consequence of conflict seemed to be associated with HRSB through alterations in sexual morality. To pursue safer sexual health choices, people in post-conflict communities need life skills.</p
    corecore