Optimal Investment Horizons for Stocks and Markets

The inverse statistics is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return obtained from (detrended) historic asset prices \cite{optihori,gainloss}. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time coined the {\em optimal investment horizon}, $\tau^*_\rho$, which defines the most likely waiting time for obtaining a given return $\rho$. By considering equal positive and negative levels of return, we reported in \cite{gainloss} on a quantitative gain/loss asymmetry most pronounced for short horizons. In the present paper, the inverse statistics for 2/3 of the individual stocks presently in the DJIA is investigated. We show that this gain/loss asymmetry established for the DJIA surprisingly is {\em not} present in the time series of the individual stocks nor their average. This observation points towards some kind of collective movement of the stocks of the index (synchronization).Comment: Subm. to Physica A as Conference Proceedings of Econophysics Colloquium, ANU Canberra, 13-17 Nov. 2005. 6 pages including figure

Inverse Statistics in the Foreign Exchange Market

We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) $\rho$ in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM) against the $US for the full year of 1998, but similar results are obtained for the Japanese Yen against the$US. With high statistical significance, the presence of "resonance peaks" in the waiting time distributions is established. Such peaks are a consequence of the trading habits of the markets participants as they are not present in the corresponding tick (business) waiting time distributions. Furthermore, a new {\em stylized fact}, is observed for the waiting time distribution in the form of a power law Pdf. This result is achieved by rescaling of the physical waiting time by the corresponding tick time thereby partially removing scale dependent features of the market activity.Comment: 8 pages. Accepted Physica

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362