Machine dependence and reproducibility for coupled climate simulations: the HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP Preindustrial simulation

When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is to some extent discussed in the literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather than on the impact of machine-dependent processes on the numerical solution. Here we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial (PI) simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial. We found that for the two simulations to be statistically indistinguishable, a 200-year averaging period must be used for the analysis of the results. Thus, constant-forcing climate simulations using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model are reproducible on different HPC platforms provided that a sufficiently long duration of simulation is used. In regions where El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection patterns were detected, we found large sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration differences on centennial timescales. This indicates that a 100-year constant-forcing climate simulation may not be long enough to adequately capture the internal variability of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, despite this being the minimum simulation length recommended by CMIP6 protocols for many MIP (Model Intercomparison Project) experiments. On the basis of our findings, we recommend a minimum simulation length of 200 years whenever possible

Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation Impacts on Water Isotope Records During the Last Interglacial

Changes of the topography of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) can complicate the interpretation of ice core water stable isotope measurements in terms of temperature. Here, we use a set of idealised AIS elevation change scenarios to investigate this for the warm Last Interglacial (LIG). We show that LIG δ 18 O against elevation relationships are not uniform across Antarctica, and that the LIG response to elevation is lower than the preindustrial response. The effect of LIG elevation‐induced sea ice changes on δ 18 O is small, allowing us to isolate the effect of elevation change alone. Our results help to define the effect of AIS changes on the LIG δ 18 O signals, and should be invaluable to those seeking to use AIS ice core measurements for these purposes. Especially, our simulations strengthen the conclusion that ice core measurements from the Talos Dome core exclude the loss of the Wilkes Basin at around 128 ky

Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models

Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could drive changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However, whilst CMIP5 model results feature consistent future-warming jet shifts, there is considerable disagreement in deglacial-warming jet shifts. We find here that the dependence of pre-industrial (PI) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) jet shifts on PI jet position, or state dependency, explains less of the shifts in jet simulated by the models for the LGM compared with future-warming scenarios. State dependence is also weaker for intensity changes, compared to latitudinal shifts in the jet. Winter sea ice was considerably more extensive during the LGM. Changes in surface heat fluxes, due to this sea ice change, probably had a large impact on the jet. Models that both simulate realistically large expansions in sea ice and feature PI jets which are south of 50° S show an increase in wind speed around 55° S and can show a poleward shift in the jet between the PI and the LGM. However, models with the PI jet positioned equatorwards of around 47° S do not show this response: the sea ice edge is too far from the jet for it to respond. In models with accurately positioned PI jets, a +1° difference in the latitude of the sea ice edge tends to be associated with a −0.85° shift in the 850 hPa jet. However, it seems that around 5° of expansion of LGM sea ice is necessary to hold the jet in its PI position. Since the Gersonde et al. (2005) data support an expansion of more than 5°, this result suggests that a slight poleward shift and intensification was the most likely jet change between the PI and the LGM. Without the effect of sea ice, models simulate poleward-shifted westerlies in warming climates and equatorward-shifted westerlies in colder climates. However, the feedback of sea ice counters and reverses the equatorward trend in cooler climates so that the LGM winds were more likely to have also been shifted slightly poleward

Ethical and methodological issues in engaging young people living in poverty with participatory research methods

This paper discusses the methodological and ethical issues arising from a project that focused on conducting a qualitative study using participatory techniques with children and young people living in disadvantage. The main aim of the study was to explore the impact of poverty on children and young people's access to public and private services. The paper is based on the author's perspective of the first stage of the fieldwork from the project. It discusses the ethical implications of involving children and young people in the research process, in particular issues relating to access and recruitment, the role of young people's advisory groups, use of visual data and collection of data in young people's homes. The paper also identifies some strategies for addressing the difficulties encountered in relation to each of these aspects and it considers the benefits of adopting participatory methods when conducting research with children and young people

Extracellular matrix and growth factor engineering for controlled angiogenesis in regenerative medicine

Blood vessel growth plays a key role in regenerative medicine, both to restore blood supply to ischemic tissues and to ensure rapid vascularization of clinical-size tissue-engineered grafts. For example, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is the master regulator of physiological blood vessel growth and is one of the main molecular targets of therapeutic angiogenesis approaches. However, angiogenesis is a complex process and there is a need to develop rational therapeutic strategies based on a firm understanding of basic vascular biology principles, as evidenced by the disappointing results of initial clinical trials of angiogenic factor delivery. In particular, the spatial localization of angiogenic signals in the extracellular matrix (ECM) is crucial to ensure the proper assembly and maturation of new vascular structures. Here, we discuss the therapeutic implications of matrix interactions of angiogenic factors, with a special emphasis on VEGF, as well as provide an overview of current approaches, based on protein and biomaterial engineering that mimic the regulatory functions of ECM to optimize the signaling microenvironment of vascular growth factors

Human behaviour in emergency situations: comparisons between aviation and rail domains

This article presents a comparative review of the knowledge base regarding human behaviour in emergencies for both aviation and rail domains. Generic models of human behaviour in emergency situations are introduced and specific attention is then focussed on methods of behaviour prediction, exhibited behaviours in emergencies and methods of aiding evacuation across both modes of transport. Using established knowledge from the aviation domain, it has been possible to make observations and comparisons about the rail domain. Traditionally, the aviation domain has been a major focus of research attention and this is used to inform and interpret the rail domain. By drawing comparisons across these domains for human behaviour in emergency situations, the observations are discussed along with recommendations for future policies/planning for emergencies and future research areas

Unimolecular decomposition kinetics of the stabilised Criegee intermediates CH₂OO and CD₂OO

Decomposition kinetics of stabilised CH2OO and CD2OO Criegee intermediates have been investigated as a function of temperature (450–650 K) and pressure (2–350 Torr) using flash photolysis coupled with time-resolved cavity-enhanced broadband UV absorption spectroscopy. Decomposition of CD2OO was observed to be faster than CH2OO under equivalent conditions. Production of OH radicals following CH2OO decomposition was also monitored using flash photolysis with laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), with results indicating direct production of OH in the v = 0 and v = 1 states in low yields. Master equation calculations performed using the Master Equation Solver for Multi-Energy well Reactions (MESMER) enabled fitting of the barriers for the decomposition of CH2OO and CD2OO to the experimental data. Parameterisations of the decomposition rate coefficients, calculated by MESMER, are provided for use in atmospheric models and implications of the results are discussed. For CH2OO, the MESMER fits require an increase in the calculated barrier height from 78.2 kJ mol−1 to 81.8 kJ mol−1 using a temperature-dependent exponential down model for collisional energy transfer with 〈ΔE〉down = 32.6(T/298 K)1.7 cm−1 in He. The low- and high-pressure limit rate coefficients are k1,0 = 3.2 × 10−4(T/298)−5.81exp(−12 770/T) cm3 s−1 and k1,∞ = 1.4 × 1013(T/298)0.06exp(−10 010/T) s−1, with median uncertainty of ∼12% over the range of experimental conditions used here. Extrapolation to atmospheric conditions yields k1(298 K, 760 Torr) = 1.1+1.5−1.1 × 10−3 s−1. For CD2OO, MESMER calculations result in 〈ΔE〉down = 39.6(T/298 K)1.3 cm−1 in He and a small decrease in the calculated barrier to decomposition from 81.0 kJ mol−1 to 80.1 kJ mol−1. The fitted rate coefficients for CD2OO are k2,0 = 5.2 × 10−5(T/298)−5.28exp(−11 610/T) cm3 s−1 and k2,∞ = 1.2 × 1013(T/298)0.06exp(−9800/T) s−1, with overall error of ∼6% over the present range of temperature and pressure. The extrapolated k2(298 K, 760 Torr) = 5.5+9.2−5.5 × 10−3 s−1. The master equation calculations for CH2OO indicate decomposition yields of 63.7% for H2 + CO2, 36.0% for H2O + CO and 0.3% for OH + HCO with no significant dependence on temperature between 400 and 1200 K or pressure between 1 and 3000 Torr

TGF-beta 1 induces human alveolar epithelial to mesenchymal cell transition (EMT)

Background: Fibroblastic foci are characteristic features in lung parenchyma of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). They comprise aggregates of mesenchymal cells which underlie sites of unresolved epithelial injury and are associated with progression of fibrosis. However, the cellular origins of these mesenchymal phenotypes remain unclear. We examined whether the potent fibrogenic cytokine TGF-β1 could induce epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) in the human alveolar epithelial cell line, A549, and investigated the signaling pathway of TGF-β1-mediated EMT. Methods: A549 cells were examined for evidence of EMT after treatment with TGF-β1. EMT was assessed by: morphology under phase-contrast microscopy; Western analysis of cell lysates for expression of mesenchymal phenotypic markers including fibronectin EDA (Fn-EDA), and expression of epithelial phenotypic markers including E-cadherin (E-cad). Markers of fibrogenesis, including collagens and connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) were also evaluated by measuring mRNA level using RT-PCR, and protein by immunofluorescence or Western blotting. Signaling pathways for EMT were characterized by Western analysis of cell lysates using monoclonal antibodies to detect phosphorylated Erk1/2 and Smad2 after TGF-β1 treatment in the presence or absence of MEK inhibitors. The role of Smad2 in TGF-β1-mediated EMT was investigated using siRNA. Results: The data showed that TGF-β1, but not TNF-α or IL-1β, induced A549 cells with an alveolar epithelial type II cell phenotype to undergo EMT in a time-and concentration-dependent manner. The process of EMT was accompanied by morphological alteration and expression of the fibroblast phenotypic markers Fn-EDA and vimentin, concomitant with a downregulation of the epithelial phenotype marker E-cad. Furthermore, cells that had undergone EMT showed enhanced expression of markers of fibrogenesis including collagens type I and III and CTGF. MMP-2 expression was also evidenced. TGF-β1-induced EMT occurred through phosphorylation of Smad2 and was inhibited by Smad2 gene silencing; MEK inhibitors failed to attenuate either EMT-associated Smad2 phosphorylation or the observed phenotypic changes. Conclusion: Our study shows that TGF-β1 induces A549 alveolar epithelial cells to undergo EMT via Smad2 activation. Our data support the concept of EMT in lung epithelial cells, and suggest the need for further studies to investigate the phenomenon

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/