Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games

Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016) and Benz (2019). This paper proposes modifications to the approach of Maddox, et al. (2022) for the NBA game and investigates the performance of the model. Enhancements to the model are developed, and the resulting adjusted model is compared with existing methods and to the ESPN counterpart. To illustrate utility, all methods are applied to the November 23, 2019 game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2204.1177

Molecular physics of jumping nanodroplets

Next-generation processor-chip cooling devices and self-cleaning surfaces can be enhanced by a passive process that require little to no electrical input, through coalescence-induced nanodroplet jumping. Here, we describe the crucial impact thermal capillary waves and ambient gas rarefaction have on enhancing/limiting the jumping speeds of nanodroplets on low adhesion surfaces. By using high-fidelity non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations in conjunction with well-resolved volume-of-fluid continuum calculations, we are able to quantify the different dissipation mechanisms that govern nanodroplet jumping at length scales that are currently difficult to access experimentally. We find that interfacial thermal capillary waves contribute to a large statistical spread of nanodroplet jumping speeds that range from 0 - 30 m/s, where the typical jumping speeds of micro/millimeter sized droplets are only up to a few m/s. As the gas surrounding these liquid droplets is no longer in thermodynamic equilibrium, we also show how the reduced external drag leads to increased jumping speeds. This work demonstrates that, in the viscous-dominated regime, the Ohnesorge number and viscosity ratio between the two phases alone are not sufficient, but that the thermal fluctuation number (Th) and the Knudsen Number (Kn) are both needed to recover the relevant molecular physics at nanoscales. Our results and analysis suggest that these dimensionless parameters would be relevant for many other free-surface flow processes and applications that operate at the nanoscale

Perceptions About Work/Life Balance Among DU Community Members with Young Children

Background: In the past fifty years, families in the USA have changed in configuration, size and dynamics. The percentage of families that do not conform to the traditional family unit (married mother and father with children) has increased as there are more single-parent families, LGBTQ families and interracial families. The proportion of unmarried or divorced families has also increased, as it has the number of married and unmarried couples that opt to not have children and, additionally, more couples are opting for adoption and foster parenting (Pew Research Center 2010). Furthermore, the percentage of households where all the adults work has increased, which impacts the amount and quality of time available for family activities and household chores (Bianchi, Robinson and Milkie 2006). These and other trends have led to the identification of “work-family balance” as an important challenge of our times, one that families have been facing for decades and that institutions are only starting to pay attention to (Hochschild 2013). Although there are many aspects of family life that are challenging to balance with workplace demands, childcare has been specifically identified as one that needs attention (Desilver 2014). Methods: Study goal: To describe the perceptions that some DU community members with children have about work-family balance with attention to challenges, difficulties and institutional responses. Study design: Descriptive, cross-sectional, qualitative study. Population and sample: We recruited 63 University of Denver students (13), staff (14) and faculty (36) who are responsible of parenting at least one child under 10 years of age. We used purposive sampling. which consists in actively finding individuals who meet the criteria. Data collection: Semi structured interviews (January 23-February 8, 2017), in person, audio recorded and transcribed within one week. Participants’ autonomy, confidentiality and anonymity were protected throughout the process. Data analysis: Thematic analysis, which consists in the systematic identification of themes in the interview transcripts, followed by their conceptual organization and hierarchization. Research team: sixty-six undergraduate students taking Cultural Anthropology (ANTH 2010) in winter 2017, four graduate teaching assistants and one course instructor. Findings: Student participants portrayed work/life balance as set of interconnected situations and relations that go from the deeply personal to the interpersonal, communal and institutional. Aiming at capturing such complexity, we organized our findings in four themes: work/life balance, family dynamics, personal challenges and support. Participants told us about their struggles when negotiating work and life responsibilities which often lead to feelings of guilt, which are mediated by their colleagues’ reactions, schedule flexibility, their job situation and the presence or absence of maternity leave. Family dynamics reflected a tension between a narrative of independence and one of dependence in raising children, highlighting the importance of social networks, both of which are also affected by immigration status and intra-household negotiations particularly, Perceptions about work/life balance among DU community members with young children Cultural Anthropology (ANTH 2010) winter 2017 4 with their partners. Personal challenges relate primarily with time management and establishing clear boundaries between work and family, which related to managing emails, organization and scheduling of activities, maintaining a financial balance, and solving transportation needs, all of which were mediated the ability parents have of controlling a flexible work schedule, an ability greatly diminished among students. Support parents need related to child care goes from the one that happens in interpersonal interactions with neighbors, friends, relatives and colleagues, to the institutionalized forms of support, where participants expressed their frustration for the insufficiency of accessible options in Denver, the lack of options at DU, and the inaccessibility of DU’s Fisher Early Learning Center. Conclusions and recommendations: Participant’s ability to control their schedules together with their financial and social capital seem to shape important differences in the ability that parents have for balancing work and life. Students, single parents and recent immigrants seem to have a combination of elements that add to the challenges. At the interpersonal level, simple acts of kindness, sympathy and empathy in the everyday interactions seem to make an important difference to parents. The perception that many of the student participants expressed about the academy not being comfortable with children, families or parents could be addressed by making it normal to talk about all these aspects of life. At the institutional level, efforts could be made at reaching out to parents, especially students and single parents, to offer them guidance and support that is already in place at DU, such as counselling and wellbeing resources, as well as orientation related to institutional policies. Policies related to maternity and paternity leave should be refined to ensure that they do not negatively affect those they are supposed to support. Convenient, affordable and sustainable on-campus child care options should be seriously considered given that they would enhance the possibilities for parents to participate in activities at DU. Events should be organized where members of the DU community have the opportunity to share not as students, staff or faculty, but as members of families

Brachyury and Related Tbx Proteins Interact with the Mixl1 Homeodomain Protein and Negatively Regulate Mixl1 Transcriptional Activity

Mixl1 is a homeodomain transcription factor required for mesoderm and endoderm patterning during mammalian embryogenesis. Despite its crucial function in development, co-factors that modulate the activity of Mixl1 remain poorly defined. Here we report that Mixl1 interacts physically and functionally with the T-box protein Brachyury and related members of the T-box family of transcription factors. Transcriptional and protein analyses demonstrated overlapping expression of Mixl1 and Brachyury during embryonic stem cell differentiation. In vitro protein interaction studies showed that the Mixl1 with Brachyury associated via their DNA-binding domains and gel shift assays revealed that the Brachyury T-box domain bound to Mixl1-DNA complexes. Furthermore, luciferase reporter experiments indicated that association of Mixl1 with Brachyury and related T-box factors inhibited the transactivating potential of Mixl1 on the Gsc and Pdgfrα promoters. Our results indicate that the activity of Mixl1 can be modulated by protein-protein interactions and that T-box factors can function as negative regulators of Mixl1 activity

Eruption style at Kīlauea Volcano in Hawaiʻi linked to primary melt composition

Explosive eruptions at basaltic volcanoes have been linked to gas segregation from magmas at shallow depths in the crust. The composition of primary melts formed at greater depths is thought to have little influence on eruptive style. Primary melts formed at ocean island basaltic volcanoes are probably geochemically diverse because they are often associated with melting of a heterogeneous plume source in the mantle. This heterogeneous primary melt composition, and particularly the content of volatile gases, will profoundly influence magma buoyancy, storage and eruption style. Here we analyse the geochemistry of a suite of melt inclusions from 25 historical eruptions at the ocean island volcano of K¯ılauea, Hawai’i, over the past 600 years.We find that more explosive styles of eruption at K¯ılauea Volcano are associated statistically with more geochemically enriched primary melts that have higher volatile concentrations. These enriched melts ascend faster and retain their primary nature, undergoing little interaction with the magma reservoir at the volcano’s summit. We conclude that the eruption style and magma-supply rate at K¯ılauea are fundamentally linked to the geochemistry of the primary melts formed deep below the volcano. Magmas might therefore be predisposed towards explosivity right at the point of formation in their mantle source region

The dynamic geophysical environment of (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx measurements

The top-shaped morphology characteristic of asteroid (101955) Bennu, often found among fast-spinning asteroids and binary asteroid primaries, may have contributed substantially to binary asteroid formation. Yet a detailed geophysical analysis of this morphology for a fast-spinning asteroid has not been possible prior to the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission. Combining the measured Bennu mass and shape obtained during the Preliminary Survey phase of the OSIRIS-REx mission, we find a notable transition in Bennu’s surface slopes within its rotational Roche lobe, defined as the region where material is energetically trapped to the surface. As the intersection of the rotational Roche lobe with Bennu’s surface has been most recently migrating towards its equator (given Bennu’s increasing spin rate), we infer that Bennu’s surface slopes have been changing across its surface within the last million years. We also find evidence for substantial density heterogeneity within this body, suggesting that its interior is a mixture of voids and boulders. The presence of such heterogeneity and Bennu’s top shape are consistent with spin-induced failure at some point in its past, although the manner of its failure cannot yet be determined. Future measurements by the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft will provide insight into and may resolve questions regarding the formation and evolution of Bennu’s top-shape morphology and its link to the formation of binary asteroids

Evidence for widespread hydrated minerals on asteroid (101955) Bennu

Early spectral data from the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission reveal evidence for abundant hydrated minerals on the surface of near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in the form of a near-infrared absorption near 2.7 µm and thermal infrared spectral features that are most similar to those of aqueously altered CM-type carbonaceous chondrites. We observe these spectral features across the surface of Bennu, and there is no evidence of substantial rotational variability at the spatial scales of tens to hundreds of metres observed to date. In the visible and near-infrared (0.4 to 2.4 µm) Bennu’s spectrum appears featureless and with a blue (negative) slope, confirming previous ground-based observations. Bennu may represent a class of objects that could have brought volatiles and organic chemistry to Earth

Sample size determination for two sample binomial and Poisson data models based on Bayesian decision theory.

Sample size determination continues to be an important research area in statistical analysis due to the cost and time constraints that often exist in areas such as pharmaceuticals and public health. We begin by outlining the work of a previous article that attempted to find a minimum necessary sample size in order to reach a desired expected power for binomial data under the Bayesian paradigm. We make improvements to their efforts that allow us to specify not only a desired expected Bayesian power, but also a more generic loss function and a desired expected Bayesian significance level, the latter having never been considered previously. We then extend these methodologies to handle Poisson data and discuss challenges in the methodology. We cover a detailed example in both cases and display various results of interest. We conclude by covering a mixed treatment comparisons meta-analysis problem when analyzing Poisson data. Traditional methods do not allow for the presence of underreporting. Here, we illustrate how a constant underreporting rate for all treatments has no effect on relative risk comparisons; however, when this rate changes per treatment, not accounting for it can lead to serious errors. Our method allows this to be taken into account so that correct analyses can be made.Ph.D

A phase 3, long-term, open-label safety study of Galcanezumab in patients with migraine

Abstract Background Galcanezumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively binds to the calcitonin gene-related peptide, has demonstrated in previous Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical studies (≤6-month of treatment) a reduction in the number of migraine headache days and improved patients’ functioning. This study evaluated the safety and tolerability, as well as the effectiveness of galcanezumab for up to 12 months of treatment in patients with migraine. Methods Patients diagnosed with episodic or chronic migraine, 18 to 65 years old, that were not exposed previously to galcanezumab, were randomized to receive galcanezumab 120 mg or 240 mg, administered subcutaneously once monthly for a year. Safety and tolerability were evaluated by frequency of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), serious adverse events (SAEs), and adverse events (AEs) leading to study discontinuation. Laboratory values, vital signs, electrocardiograms, and suicidality were also analyzed. Additionally, overall change from baseline in the number of monthly migraine headache days, functioning, and disability were assessed. Results One hundred thirty five patients were randomized to each galcanezumab dose group. The majority of patients were female (> 80%) and on average were 42 years old with 10.6 migraine headache days per month at baseline. 77.8% of the patients completed the open-label treatment phase, 3.7% of patients experienced an SAE, and 4.8% discontinued due to AEs. TEAEs with a frequency ≥ 10% of patients in either dose group were injection site pain, nasopharyngitis, upper respiratory tract infection, injection site reaction, back pain, and sinusitis. Laboratory values, vital signs, or electrocardiograms did not show anyclinically meaningful differences between galcanezumab dosesOverall mean reduction in monthly migraine headache days over 12 months for the galcanezumab dose groups were 5.6 (120 mg) and 6.5 (240 mg). Level of functioning was improved and headache-related disability was reduced in both dose groups. Conclusion Twelve months of treatment with self-administered injections of galcanezumab was safe and associated with a reduction in the number of monthly migraine headache days. Safety and tolerability of the 2 galcanezumab dosing regimens were comparable. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02614287, posted November 15, 2015. These data were previously presented as a poster at the International Headache Congress 2017: PO-01-184, Late-Breaking Abstracts of the 2017 International Headache Congress. (2017). Cephalalgia, 37(1_suppl), 319–374