Do grain reserves necessarily contribute to prices stability and food security in Sudan? An assessment

AbstractMost governments in Africa implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods, which often include building up grain reserves, besides other trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market. The mechanism should ideally work as follows, grains should be bought and stored from areas, during the surplus seasons (after harvest) so as to assure fair prices to producers and should be distributed during deficit seasons, in deficit areas besides in cases of emergencies. However, ideal approaches are not necessarily followed in many developing countries due to different constraints and situations. The Strategic Reserve Corporation (SRC) is an institution that is established ten years ago to play such a role in Sudan. This paper tries to assess the performance of the SRC against the overall goals and to study the related obstacles if any. We use a sample of 112 respondents from the SRC staff, related and grain farmers as our data source. Results of the research revealed numerous financial and administrative constraints that obstruct SRC from playing the intended role, which need to be considered so as to contribute to price stability and food security in Sudan

Forest Degradation in Dryland Ecosystems of Sudan: Review of the Causes, Consequences, Assessment Methods, and Potential Solutions

Dryland forests are ecologically and socioeconomically important. They contribute to livelihood diversification, food security, animal feed and shelter, and environmental conservation in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Sudan. Despite their importance, current findings show that multiple ecological, human, socio-economic, and policy factors have damaged these resources. As a result, undesirable consequences have been observed, such as food famine, land and water resource degradation, decline/loss of biodiversity, and contribution to global warming that affect the welfare of humans, plants, animals, and micro-organisms. This chapter briefly reviews the forest degradation in drylands Sudan with emphasis on its common causes, impacts, assessment methods, management intervention efforts, and potential future solutions. Given the current situation, there must be urgent combating efforts to manage Sudan’s dryland forest resources properly. On the one hand, following prevention measures to essentially deal with the current causes thus prevent any further degradation of forest resources in dryland Sudan. On the other hand, there is an urgent need to address current degradation following appropriate and timely rehabilitation interventions. We also recommend adopting a serious monitoring and evaluation system within these combating efforts by applying the five common indicators for measuring forest degradation: biodiversity, productive functions, carbon storage, forest health, and protective functions

Using (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations in serum to monitor the response of azole therapy in patients with eumycetoma caused by Madurella mycetomatis

Introduction: (1,3)-β-D-glucan is a panfungal biomarker secreted by many fungi, including Madurella mycetomatis, the main causative agent of eumycetoma. Previously we demonstrated that (1,3)-β-D-glucan was present in serum of patients with eumycetoma. However, the use of (1,3)-β-D-glucan to monitor treatment responses in patients with eumycetoma has not been evaluated. Materials and Methods: In this study, we measured (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations in serum with the WAKO (1,3)-β-D-glucan assay in 104 patients with eumycetoma treated with either 400 mg itraconazole daily, or 200 mg or 300 mg fosravuconazole weekly. Serial serum (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations were measured at seven different timepoints. Any correlation between initial and final (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations and clinical outcome was evaluated. Results: The concentration of (1,3)-β-D-glucan was obtained in a total of 654 serum samples. Before treatment, the average (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentration was 22.86 pg/mL. During the first 6 months of treatment, this concentration remained stable. (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations significantly dropped after surgery to 8.56 pg/mL. After treatment was stopped, there was clinical evidence of recurrence in 18 patients. Seven of these 18 patients had a (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentration above the 5.5 pg/mL cut-off value for positivity, while in the remaining 11 patients, (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations were below the cut-off value. This resulted in a sensitivity of 38.9% and specificity of 75.0%. A correlation between lesion size and (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentration was noted. Conclusion: Although in general (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations can be measured in the serum of patients with eumycetoma during treatment, a sharp decrease in β-glucan concentration was only noted after surgery and not during or after antimicrobial treatment. (1,3)-β-D-glucan concentrations were not predictive for recurrence and seem to have no value in determining treatment response to azoles in patients with eumycetoma.</p

Trends of Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes of Notified Cases in Three Refugee Camps in Sudan: A Four-year Retrospective Analysis, 2014–2017

Background: Refugees are vulnerable to tuberculosis (TB) infection. Tracking of program performance is needed to improve TB care and prevention. The objective of this study was to assess the trends of TB treatment outcomes of notified cases in three refugee camps in Sudan from 2014 to 2017. Methods: This study was a historical cohort study. Sex, age, type of TB, TB patient category, and treatment outcome of all TB cases registered in three refugee camps (Al Kashafa, Shagarab, Wadsherify) from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 were collected from the TB register. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to explore factors for unsuccessful TB treatment. Results: A total of 710 TB cases of which 53.4% were men, 22.1% children (&lt;15 years), and 36.2% extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) were registered. Overall, the TB treatment success rate was 75.7% with a declining trend from 86.2% in 2015 to 63.5% in 2017. On average, 11.4% were lost to follow-up (LTFU), 6.6% died, 5.9% were not evaluated, and in 0.3% the treatment failed. Being 15–24 years old and having EPTB were significantly associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome. Conclusion: The treatment success rate in the refugee camp in 2017 (63.5%) was far lower than the national treatment success rate (78%) and the End TB global target (≥90%) that needs to be improved. LTFU, died, and not evaluated outcomes were high which indicated the necessity to improve the TB treatment program

Production of Self-healing Concrete using Gum Arabic for Immobilizing of Bacterial Spores on Sand

This paper studies the feasibility of producing self-healing concrete by immobilization of bacteria on the sand. In this study, the Gum Arabic (Acacia Senegal) was used to immobilize bacterial spores and its nutrient (Calcium lactate) on sand surface as a novel technique. Due to its availability and environment-friendly character, Bacillus subtilis bacteria have been selected and prepared. To achieve the aim of this study, three concrete mixes were made with 10%, 5%, and 2.5% of gum-capsulated sand with bacteria. The ability of self-healing of cracks was monitored using stereomicroscope and digital image camera. The experiments have shown that the proposed technique is efficient in healing of cracks without impairing the prisms' strength for mixes with 2.5% and 5% of gum-capsulated sand with bacteria. The results give a proof-of-concept to use Gum Arabic as an adhesion to immoblize the bacteria and its nutrient on sand to produce self-healing concrete

Effect of Simulated Drought and Rainfall Fluctuation on Seedling Growth of Two Savannah Trees Species in Sudan: An Experimental Exploration = Szimulált aszály és csapadék ingadozás hatása két szavannai fafaj csemetéinek növekedésére Szudánban: egy kísérleti felfedezés

Climate change scenarios project that several regions, especially in dryland areas of sub-Saharan Africa, will undergo increasing aridity and, subsequently, expanding land degradation. The study aims to investigate the effect of two drying treatments on establishing and growing Hashab (Acacia senegal) and Boabab (Adansonia digitata) in nursery conditions. Through a 2×2 factorial experiment, seedlings grown in a mixture of silt and sand soil (2:3) were treated by irrigation intervals of one or two liters every three days for 14 weeks to simulate rainfall fluctuation patterns. Seedling germination rate, leaf number, stem height, and diameter were measured weekly; taproot length, shoot, and root dry weights were also assessed. The results showed that neither drying treatment significantly affected A. senegal and A. digitata seedling growth parameters. However, an interaction effect was found in the height and diameter for A. senegal and shoot dry weight for A. digitata. The study concluded that A. senegal and A. digitata seem tolerant to drying treatment. Therefore, the two species are recommended for afforestation programs in areas with relatively harsher conditions. Also, exposing the seedlings of these studied species to similar, extended periods of simulated drought (e.g., 6 – 12 months) is recommended for future studies. Az éghajlatváltozási forgatókönyvek szerint több régió, különösen a száraz területek a szubszaharai Afrikában, egyre szárazabbá válnak és ennek következtében a talajdegradáció is terjedni fog. A tanulmány célja a Hashab (Acacia senegal) és a Boabab (Adansonia digitata) két szárítási kezelésnek a csemetekerti körülmények közötti kialakulására és növekedésére gyakorolt hatásának vizsgálata. Egy 2×2 faktoriális kísérleten keresztül, amelyben magoncokat neveltünk homokos és iszapos talajkeverékben (2:3) öntözési intervallumokkal, amelyek 1 vagy 2 literes vízmennyiségeket kaptak minden 3. napon 14 hétig, hogy szimuláljuk a csapadékingadozásokat. A magoncok csírázási aránya, a levél- és a szár magassága, valamint átmérőjük hetente mérve lett, majd a hosszú gyökér, a hajtás és a gyökér száraz tömegeit értékeltük ki. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy egyik szárítási kezelés sem volt hatással az A. senegal és az A. digitata magoncok növekedési paramétereire. Azonban interakciós hatást találtunk az A. senegal magasságára és átmérőjére, valamint az A. digitata hajtás száraz tömegére. A tanulmány arra a következtetésre jutott, hogy mind az A. senegal, mind az A. digitata toleránsnak tűnik a szárítási kezeléssel szemben, ezért mindkét faj ajánlható az erdősítési programokhoz olyan területeken, ahol viszonylag szélsőségesebbek a körülmények. A jövőbeni vizsgálatok során érdemes volna a vizsgált fajok csemetéit hosszabb ideig (pl. 6-12 hónap) szimulált aszálynak kitenni

The development of a novel diagnostic PCR for Madurella mycetomatis using a comparative genome approach

BACKGROUND: Eumycetoma is a neglected tropical disease most commonly caused by the fungus Madurella mycetomatis. Identification of eumycetoma causative agents can only be reliably performed by molecular identification, most commonly by species-specific PCR. The current M. mycetomatis specific PCR primers were recently discovered to cross-react with Madurella pseudomycetomatis. Here, we used a comparative genome approach to develop a new M. mycetomatis specific PCR for species identification. METHODOLOGY: Predicted-protein coding sequences unique to M. mycetomatis were first identified in BLASTCLUST based on E-value, size and presence of orthologues. Primers were then developed for 16 unique sequences and evaluated against 60 M. mycetomatis isolates and other eumycetoma causing agents including the Madurella sibling species. Out of the 16, only one was found to be specific to M. mycetomatis. CONCLUSION: We have discovered a predicted-protein coding sequence unique to M. mycetomatis and have developed a new species-specific PCR to be used as a novel diagnostic marker for M. mycetomatis

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions