Decadal-scale modulation of the NAO/AO by external forcing: Current state of understanding

Analyses of observations show correlations between the mean state of indices representing either the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Arctic Oscillation (AO, also called Northern Annular Mode) with various external forcings. These include volcanic eruptions, solar variability, greenhouse gas levels and stratospheric ozone depletion. Climate model simulations have been able to reproduce many aspects of these correlations over a variety of time scales ranging from interannual to century scale. This has allowed some insight to be gained into how external forcings modulate these intrinsic variability patterns. I review current understanding derived from comparisons of a range of models with observations to highlight areas of commonality as well as remaining uncertainties. Contrasts between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres suggest that much of the response to external forcing occurs via wave-driven processes. Comparison of the response to forcings at different levels in the atmosphere indicate a sizeable role for both stratospheric and surface-level perturbations. Implications for forcing of changes in Mediterranean climate are presented for pre-industrial times during the last millennium, for the twentieth century, and for the potential future

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely

Direct Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning CO Emissions Using TES and MOPITT Versus Bottom-up GFED Inventory

In this study, we utilize near-simultaneous observations from two sets of multiple satellite sensors to segregate Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO observations over active fire sources from those made over clear background. Hence, we obtain direct estimates of biomass burning CO emissions without invoking inverse modeling as in traditional top-down methods. We find considerable differences between Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3.1 and satellite-based emission estimates in many regions. Both inventories appear to greatly underestimate South and Southeast Asia emissions, for example. On global scales, however, CO emissions in both inventories and in the MOPITT-based analysis agree reasonably well, with the largest bias (30%) found in the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the Southern Hemisphere, there is a one-month shift between the GFED and MOPITT-based fire emissions peak. Afternoon tropical fire emissions retrieved from TES are about two times higher than the morning MOPITT retrievals. This appears to be both a real difference due to the diurnal fire activity variations, and a bias due to the scarcity of TES data

Reconciling Warming Trends

Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy

Sensitivity of Stratospheric Geoengineering with Black Carbon to Aerosol Size and Altitude of Injection

Simulations of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon (BC) aerosols using a general circulation model with fixed sea surface temperatures show that the climate effects strongly depend on aerosol size and altitude of injection. 1 Tg BC/a injected into the lower stratosphere would cause little surface cooling for large radii but a large amount of surface cooling for small radii and stratospheric warming of over 60 C. With the exception of small particles, increasing the altitude of injection increases surface cooling and stratospheric warming. Stratospheric warming causes global ozone loss by up to 50% in the small radius case. The Antarctic shows less ozone loss due to reduction of polar stratospheric clouds, but strong circumpolar winds would enhance the Arctic ozone hole. Using diesel fuel to produce the aerosols is likely prohibitively expensive and infeasible. Although studying an absorbing aerosol is a useful counterpart to previous studies involving sulfate aerosols, black carbon geoengineering likely carries too many risks to make it a viable option for deployment

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica

Measurements of the vertical profile, diurnal variation, and secular change of ClO in the stratosphere over Thule, Greenland, February-March, 1992

We report observations of stratospheric chlorine monoxide over the altitude range approx. 16 to 50 km at Thule, Greenland from Feb. 8 to Mar. 24, 1992. A new, more sensitive ground-based mm-wave spectrometer was employed for these measurements, similar in principle to that used earlier for the discovery of low altitude ClO in the Antarctic springtime. In this report, we discuss different aspects of vertical distribution, secular trends, and diurnal variation of ClO in the Arctic stratosphere, based on a preliminary analysis of our Thule data. We see no evidence for large (approx. 1.2-1.5 ppb) amounts of ClO in the lower stratosphere at any time during February or March, in agreement with UARS-MLS findings for this period, and in marked contrast to findings reported for the Arctic in January. We have some evidence for small enhancements (approx. 0.2-0.5 ppb) in the 18-30 km range in late February-early March, which might be associated with volcanic aerosol, rather than PSC, processing

Observed changes in the vertical profile of stratopheric nitrous oxide at Thule, Greenland, February - March 1992

Using a ground-based mm-wave spectrometer, we have observed stratospheric N2O over Thule, Greenland (76.3 N, 68.4 W) during late February and March, 1992. Vertical profiles of mixing ratio ranging from 16 to 50 km were recovered from molecular emission spectra. The profiles of early March show an abrupt increase in the lower-stratosphere N2O mixing ratio similar to the spring-to-summer change associated with the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. This increase is correlated with changes in potential vorticity, air temperature, and ozone mixing ratio

The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns

Accounting for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics

Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate-carbon feedback for the reference gas (i.e. CO2) but not the other species (e.g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made to consistently account for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics. This attempt was based on only one study, and therefore the IPCC concluded that more research was needed. Here, we carry out this research. First, using the simple carbon-climate model OSCAR v2.2, we establish a new impulse response function for the climate-carbon feedback. Second, we use this impulse response function to provide new estimates for the two most common metrics: Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). We find that, when the climate-carbon feedback is correctly accounted for, the emission metrics of non-CO2 species increase, but in most cases not as much as initially indicated by IPCC. We also find that, when the feedback is removed for both the reference and studied species, these relative metric values only have modest changes compared to when the feedback is included (absolute metrics change more markedly). Including or excluding the climate-carbon feedback ultimately depends on the user’s goal, but consistency should be ensured in either case