What is the probability of connecting two points ?

The two-terminal reliability, known as the pair connectedness or connectivity function in percolation theory, may actually be expressed as a product of transfer matrices in which the probability of operation of each link and site is exactly taken into account. When link and site probabilities are $p$ and $\rho$, it obeys an asymptotic power-law behavior, for which the scaling factor is the transfer matrix's eigenvalue of largest modulus. The location of the complex zeros of the two-terminal reliability polynomial exhibits structural transitions as $0 \leq \rho \leq 1$.Comment: a few critical polynomials are at the end of the .tex source fil

Analysis of a SBLOCA initiated by an ATWS event

The response of a four-loop Westinghouse pressurized water reactor to SBLOCAs initiated as a result of an anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) has been analyzed using the RELAP5 computer code. The ATWS is initiated by a loss-of-feedwater, and the small breaks were due to either one or three stuck-open safety valves or reactor coolant pump seal failure. For the cases analyzed, the results show that a LOF-ATWS followed by a SBLOCA does not have more safety significance than that found when each accident is analyzed independently of one another

Dust and gas in luminous infrared galaxies - results from SCUBA observations

We present new data taken at 850 $\mu$m with SCUBA at the JCMT for a sample of 19 luminous infrared galaxies. Fourteen galaxies were detected. We have used these data, together with fluxes at 25, 60 and 100 $\mu$m from IRAS, to model the dust emission. We find that the emission from most galaxies can be described by an optically thin, single temperature dust model with an exponent of the dust extinction coefficient ($k_\lambda \propto \lambda^{-\beta}$) of $\beta \simeq 1.5 - 2$. A lower $\beta\simeq 1$ is required to model the dust emission from two of the galaxies, Arp 220 and NGC 4418. We discuss various possibilities for this difference and conclude that the most likely is a high dust opacity. In addition, we compare the molecular gas mass derived from the dust emission, $M_{dust}$, with the molecular gas mass derived from the CO emission, $M_{CO}$, and find that $M_{CO}$ is on average a factor 3 higher than $M_{dust}$.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, latex, with MN-macros, accepted by MNRAS - revised version (changed flux values for some galaxies

A Chromosome-Length Reference Genome for the Endangered Pacific Pocket Mouse Reveals Recent Inbreeding in a Historically Large Population

High-quality reference genomes are fundamental tools for understanding population history, and can provide estimates of genetic and demographic parameters relevant to the conservation of biodiversity. The federally endangered Pacific pocket mouse (PPM), which persists in three small, isolated populations in southern California, is a promising model for studying how demographic history shapes genetic diversity, and how diversity in turn may influence extinction risk. To facilitate these studies in PPM, we combined PacBio HiFi long reads with Omni-C and Hi-C data to generate a de novo genome assembly, and annotated the genome using RNAseq. The assembly comprised 28 chromosome-length scaffolds (N50 = 72.6 MB) and the complete mitochondrial genome, and included a long heterochromatic region on chromosome 18 not represented in the previously available short-read assembly. Heterozygosity was highly variable across the genome of the reference individual, with 18% of windows falling in runs of homozygosity (ROH) >1 MB, and nearly 9% in tracts spanning >5 MB. Yet outside of ROH, heterozygosity was relatively high (0.0027), and historical Ne estimates were large. These patterns of genetic variation suggest recent inbreeding in a formerly large population. Currently the most contiguous assembly for a heteromyid rodent, this reference genome provides insight into the past and recent demographic history of the population, and will be a critical tool for management and future studies of outbreeding depression, inbreeding depression, and genetic load

Obscured Activity: AGN, Quasars, Starbursts and ULIGs observed by the Infrared Space Observatory

Some of the most active galaxies in the Universe are obscured by large quantities of dust and emit a substantial fraction of their bolometric luminosity in the infrared. Observations of these infrared luminous galaxies with the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) have provided a relatively unabsorbed view to the sources fuelling this active emission. The improved sensitivity, spatial resolution and spectroscopic capability of ISO over its predecessor Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS), has enabled significant advances in the understanding of the infrared properties of active galaxies. ISO surveyed a wide range of active galaxies which, in the context of this review, includes those powered by intense bursts of star-formation as well as those containing a dominant active galactic nucleus (AGN). Mid infrared imaging resolved for the first time the dust enshrouded nuclei in many nearby galaxies, while a new era in infrared spectroscopy was opened by probing a wealth of atomic, ionic and molecular lines as well as broad band features in the mid and far infrared. This was particularly useful since it resulted in the understanding of the power production, excitation and fuelling mechanisms in the nuclei of active galaxies including the intriguing but so far elusive ultraluminous infrared galaxies. Detailed studies of various classes of AGN and quasars greatly improved our understanding of the unification scenario. Far-infrared imaging and photometry also revealed the presence of a new very cold dust component in galaxies and furthered our knowledge of the far-infrared properties of faint starbursts, ULIGs and quasars. We summarise almost nine years of key results based upon ISO data spanning the full range of luminosity and type of active galaxies.Comment: Accepted for publication in 'ISO science legacy - a compact review of ISO major achievements', Space Science Reviews - dedicated ISO issue. To be published by Springer in 2005. 62 pages (low resolution figures version). Higher resolution PDFs available from http://users.physics.uoc.gr/~vassilis/papers/VermaA.pdf or http://www.iso.vilspa.esa.es/science/SSR/Verma.pd

Određivanje aflatoksina, okratoksina A, fumonizina i zearalenona u žitaricama i krmivu primjenom kompetetivnoga direktnog imunoenzimatskog testa (CD-ELISA) i tankoslojne kromatografije (TLC)

Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium species frequently contaminate crops. For this reason mycotoxins such as afl atoxins (AFs), ochratoxin A (OTA), fumonisins (FBs), and zearalenone (ZEA) are found in food and feed in a wide range of concentrations, depending on environmental and storage conditions. Consumption of mycotoxin-contaminated food and feed has been associated with acute and chronic poisoning and carcinoma. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and co-occurrence of AFs (B1+B2+G1+G2), OTA, FBs (B1+B2+B3), and ZEA in 37 samples of cereals and feed randomly collected in 2007 from households of an endemic nephropathy (EN) area in Croatia. The mycotoxins were determined using the competitive direct ELISA test (CD-ELISA) in combination with thin-layer chromatography (TLC). The most frequent mycotoxin was ZEA (92 %, mean 318.3 μg kg-1), followed by FBs (27 %, 3690 μg kg-1), AFs (24.3 %, 4.6 μg kg-1), and OTA (16.2 %, 9.8 μg kg-1). Levels of AFs, ZEA, and FBs detected by CD-ELISA signifi cantly correlated with the TLC results. However, only one OTA-positive sample was confi rmed by TLC due to its high limit of detection. The levels of these mycotoxins were below the permissible limit for animal feed. Twenty-nine percent of cereals were contaminated with FBs, OTA, or ZEA in mass fractions above the permissible limit for humans. Co-occurrence of two toxins varied between 4.2 % and 54 % and of three between 4.2 % and 7.6 %. Prolonged co-exposure to AFs, OTA, FBs, and ZEA might increase the risk of various chronic diseases.Vrste plijesni iz rodova Aspergillus, Penicillium i Fusarium česti su kontaminanti usjeva te na takvim supstratima tvore mikotoksine. Stoga su žitarice i krmiva često kontaminirana afl atoksinima (AFs), okratoksinom A (OTA), fumonizinima (FBs) i zearalenonom (ZEA) u različitim koncentracijama ovisno o mikroklimatskim uvjetima na polju i u skladištu. Konzumiranje hrane kontaminirane mikotoksinima često je povezano s akutnim ili kroničnim trovanjima, ali i s razvojem karcinoma. Cilj ovog rada bio je odrediti istodobnu pojavnost AFs (B1+B2+G1+G2), OTA, FBs (B1+B2+B3) i ZEA u uzorcima žitarica i krme (N=37) koji su nasumično skupljeni u individualnim domaćinstvima na području endemske nefropatije (EN) u Hrvatskoj (2007). Za određivanje navedenih mikotoksina korišten je kompetitivni direktni ELISA-test (CD-ELISA) u kombinaciji s tankoslojnom kromatografi jom (TLC). Najzastupljeniji mikotoksin bio je ZEA (92 %, srednja koncentracija 318.3 μg kg-1), nakon čega slijede FBs (27 %, 3690 μg kg-1), AFs (24.3 %, 4.6 μg kg-1) te OTA (16.2 %, 9.8 μg kg-1). Koncentracije AFs, FBs i ZEA određene CD-ELISA-testom statistički značajno koreliraju s rezultatima dobivenim s TLC. OTA je potvrđen metodom TLC samo u jednom uzorku zbog visokog limita detekcije. Dokazane koncentracije su ispod razina dopuštenih za krmiva, dok je 29 % uzoraka žitarica sadržavalo FBs, OTA ili ZEA u koncentracijama iznad dopuštenih u hrani za ljude. Kokontaminacija s dvama odnosno trima toksinima varirala je između 4.2 % i 54 % odnosno između 4.2 % i 7.6 %. Dugotrajni unos AFs, OTA, FBs i ZEA putem hrane može povećati rizik od razvoja različitih kroničnih bolesti zbog njihova mogućega sinergističkog djelovanja

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana: 2010–2014

Background: Diarrhea is a public health menace, especially in developing countries. Knowledge of the biological and anthropogenic characteristics is abundant. However, little is known about its spatial patterns especially in developing countries like Ghana. This study aims to map and explore the spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana. Methods: Data on district level incidences of diarrhea from 2010 to 2014 were compiled together with population data. We mapped the relative risks using empirical Bayesian smoothing. The spatial scan statistics was used to detect and map spatial and space-Time clusters. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between space-Time clustering and urbanization strata, i.e. rural, peri-urban, and urban districts. Results: We observed substantial variation in the spatial distribution of the relative risk. There was evidence of significant spatial clusters with most of the excess incidences being long-Term with only a few being emerging clusters. Space-Time clustering was found to be more likely to occur in peri-urban districts than in rural and urban districts. Conclusion: This study has revealed that the excess incidences of diarrhea is spatially clustered with peri-urban districts showing the greatest risk of space-Time clustering. More attention should therefore be paid to diarrhea in peri-urban districts. These findings also prompt public health officials to integrate disease mapping and cluster analyses in developing location specific interventions for reducing diarrhea

Older adults’ preferences for, adherence to and experiences of two self-management falls prevention home exercise programmes: a comparison between a digital programme and a paper booklet

Background: Fall prevention exercise programmes are known to be effective, but access to these programmes is not always possible. The use of eHealth solutions might be a way forward to increase access and reach a wider population. In this feasibility study the aim was to explore the choice of programme, adherence, and self-reported experiences comparing two exercise programmes – a digital programme and a paper booklet. Methods: A participant preference trial of two self-managed fall prevention exercise interventions. Community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and older exercised independently for four months after one introduction meeting. Baseline information was collected at study start, including a short introduction of the exercise programme, a short physical assessment, and completion of questionnaires. During the four months intervention period, participants self-reported their performed exercises in an exercise diary. At a final meeting, questionnaires about their experiences, and post-assessments, were completed. For adherence analyses data from diaries were used and four subgroups for different levels of participation were compared. Exercise maintenance was followed up with a survey 12 months after study start. Results: Sixty-seven participants, with mean age 77 ± 4 years were included, 72% were women. Forty-three percent chose the digital programme. Attrition rate was 17% in the digital programme group and 37% in the paper booklet group (p = .078). In both groups 50–59% reported exercise at least 75% of the intervention period. The only significant difference for adherence was in the subgroup that completed ≥75% of exercise duration, the digital programme users exercised more minutes per week (p = .001). Participants in both groups were content with their programme but digital programme users reported a significantly higher (p = .026) degree of being content, and feeling supported by the programme (p = .044). At 12 months follow-up 67% of participants using the digital programme continued to exercise regularly compared with 35% for the paper booklet (p = .036). Conclusions: Exercise interventions based on either a digital programme or a paper booklet can be used as a self-managed, independent fall prevention programme. There is a similar adherence in both programmes during a 4-month intervention, but the digital programme seems to facilitate long-term maintenance in regular exercise

Socio-demographic disparity in oral health among the poor: a cross sectional study of early adolescents in Kilwa district, Tanzania

There is a lack of studies considering social disparity in oral health emanating from adolescents in low-income countries. This study aimed to assess socio-demographic disparities in clinical- and self reported oral health status and a number of oral health behaviors. The extent to which oral health related behaviors might account for socio-demographic disparities in oral health status was also examined. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Kilwa district in 2008. One thousand seven hundred and forty five schoolchildren completed an interview and a full mouth clinical examination. Caries experience was recorded using WHO criteria, whilst type of treatment need was categorized using the ART approach. The majority of students were caries free (79.8%) and presented with a low need for dental treatment (89.3%). Compared to their counterparts in opposite groups, rural residents and those from less poor households presented more frequently with caries experience (DMT>0), high need for dental treatment and poor oral hygiene behavior, but were less likely to report poor oral health status. Stepwise logistic regressions revealed that social and behavioral variables varied systematically with caries experience, high need for dental treatment and poor self reported oral health. Socio-demographic disparities in oral health outcomes persisted after adjusting for oral health behaviors. Socio-demographic disparities in oral health outcomes and oral health behaviors do exist. Socio-demographic disparities in oral health outcomes were marginally accounted for by oral health behaviors. Developing policies and programs targeting both social and individual determinants of oral health should be an urgent public health strategy in Tanzania