The impacts of COVID-19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries*

We simulate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Australian economy using VURM, a detailed computable general equilibrium model for Australia. We identify five sources of economic perturbations: changes to productivity due to changing work practices, changes in household demand imposed by voluntary and mandated social distancing behaviour, changes in international trade due to a weakened world economy and severe curtailment of international travel, reduced population growth due to lower net migration and large debt-financed fiscal stimulus. Variants of these shocks and associated recovery paths are simulated in VURM, with three scenarios describing potential recovery arcs. The macroeconomic and industry impacts are reported for each scenario. Ultimately, our focus is on the impact on output and employment in the agriculture and mining sectors, and on their likely recovery prospects. At the peak of economic impacts, output in these sectors declines by about 6 per cent relative to a no-COVID baseline. Compared to the economy-wide average, the decline in agriculture and mining output is small. This can be explained by relatively minor impacts on work practices, relatively low negative impacts on demand for intensive agriculture (helped by fiscal supports for households) and relatively low disruption to export demand

Role of Hepatic Stellate Cells in the Early Phase of Liver Regeneration in Rat: Formation of Tight Adhesion to Parenchymal Cells

We investigated activation mechanisms of hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) that are known to play pivotal roles in the regeneration process after 70% partial hepatectomy (PHx). Parenchymal liver cells (PLCs) and non-parenchymal cells (NPLCs) were isolated and purified from the regenerating livers at 1, 3, 7, 14 days after PHx. Each liver cell fraction was stained by immunocytochemistry using an anti-desmin antibody as a marker for HSCs, anti-alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA) as a marker for activated HSCs, and 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU) for detection of proliferating cells. Tissue sections from regenerating livers were also analyzed by immunohistochemistry and compared with the results obtained for isolated cell fractions. One and 3 days after PHx, PLC-enriched fraction contained HSCs adhered to PLCs. The HSCs adhered to PLCs were double positive for BrdU and alpha-SMA, and formed clusters suggesting that these HSCs were activated. However, HSC-enriched fraction contained HSCs not adhered PLCs showed positive staining for anti-desmin antibody but negative for anti-alpha-SMA antibody. These results suggest that HSCs are activated by adhering to PLCs during the early phase of hepatic regeneration

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

Collection of biometric data was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I028068/1) to JAT and the USUK Fulbright Commission and the Oxford Clarendon Fund to C.S. This research was funded by a Durham University Seedcorn grant to SGW. Production of the underlying SDMs was funded by a National Environment Research Council training grant (NE/J500215/1).Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Evaluation of Human Papilloma Virus Diagnostic Testing in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Sensitivity, Specificity, and Prognostic Discrimination

Abstract Purpose: Human papillomavirus-16 (HPV16) is the causative agent in a biologically distinct subset of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with highly favorable prognosis. In clinical trials, HPV16 status is an essential inclusion or stratification parameter, highlighting the importance of accurate testing. Experimental Design: Fixed and fresh-frozen tissue from 108 OPSCC cases were subject to eight possible assay/assay combinations: p16 immunohistochemistry (p16 IHC); in situ hybridization for high-risk HPV (HR HPV ISH); quantitative PCR (qPCR) for both viral E6 RNA (RNA qPCR) and DNA (DNA qPCR); and combinations of the above. Results: HPV16-positive OPSCC presented in younger patients (mean 7.5 years younger, P = 0.003) who smoked less than HPV-negative patients (P = 0.007). The proportion of HPV16-positive cases increased from 15% to 57% (P = 0.001) between 1988 and 2009. A combination of p16 IHC/DNA qPCR showed acceptable sensitivity (97%) and specificity (94%) compared with the RNA qPCR “gold standard”, as well as being the best discriminator of favorable outcome (overall survival P = 0.002). p16 IHC/HR HPV ISH also had acceptable specificity (90%) but the substantial reduction in its sensitivity (88%) impacted upon its prognostic value (P = 0.02). p16 IHC, HR HPV ISH, or DNA qPCR was not sufficiently specific to recommend in clinical trials when used in isolation. Conclusions: Caution must be exercised in applying HPV16 diagnostic tests because of significant disparities in accuracy and prognostic value in previously published techniques. Clin Cancer Res; 17(19); 6262–71. ©2011 AACR.</jats:p

The Japanese model in retrospective : industrial strategies, corporate Japan and the 'hollowing out' of Japanese industry

This article provides a retrospective look at the Japanese model of industrial development. This model combined an institutional approach to production based around the Japanese Firm (Aoki's, J-mode) and strategic state intervention in industry by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). For a long period, the alignment of state and corporate interests appeared to match the wider public interest as the Japanese economy prospered. However, since the early 1990s, the global ambitions of the corporate sector have contributed to a significant 'hollowing out' of Japan's industrial base. As the world today looks for a new direction in economic management, we suggest the Japanese model provides policy-makers with a salutary lesson in tying the wider public interest with those of the corporate sector

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme's impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making. METHODS: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the 'Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems' (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model ("LifeSim") will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly's dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme's system changes on early life health and well-being. DISCUSSION: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: A study protocol

Introduction: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme’s impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making./ Methods: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the ‘Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems’ (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model (“LifeSim”) will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly’s dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme’s system changes on early life health and well-being./ Discussion: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose

Fostering Program Comprehension in Novice Programmers - Learning Activities and Learning Trajectories

This working group asserts that Program Comprehension (ProgComp) plays a critical part in the process of writing programs. For example, this paper is written from a basic draft that was edited and revised until it clearly presented our idea. Similarly, a program is written incrementally, with each step tested, debugged and extended until the program achieves its goal. Novice programmers should develop program comprehension skills as they learn to code so that they are able both to read and reason about code created by others, and to reflect on their code when writing, debugging or extending it. To foster such competencies our group identified two main goals: (g1) to collect and define learning activities that explicitly address key components of program comprehension and (g2) to define tentative theoretical learning trajectories that will guide teachers as they select and sequence those learning activities in their CS0/CS1/CS2 or K-12 courses. The WG has completed the first goal and laid down a strong foundation towards the second goal as presented in this report. After a thorough literature review, a detailed description of the Block Model is provided, as this model has been used with a dual purpose, to classify and present an extensive list of ProgComp tasks, and to describe a possible learning trajectory for a complex task, covering different cells of the Block Model matrix. The latter is intended to help instructors to decompose complex tasks and identify which aspects of ProgComp are being fostered

ActEarly: a City Collaboratory approach to early promotion of good health and wellbeing.

Economic, physical, built, cultural, learning, social and service environments have a profound effect on lifelong health. However, policy thinking about health research is dominated by the 'biomedical model' which promotes medicalisation and an emphasis on diagnosis and treatment at the expense of prevention. Prevention research has tended to focus on 'downstream' interventions that rely on individual behaviour change, frequently increasing inequalities. Preventive strategies often focus on isolated leverage points and are scattered across different settings. This paper describes a major new prevention research programme that aims to create City Collaboratory testbeds to support the identification, implementation and evaluation of upstream interventions within a whole system city setting. Prevention of physical and mental ill-health will come from the cumulative effect of multiple system-wide interventions. Rather than scatter these interventions across many settings and evaluate single outcomes, we will test their collective impact across multiple outcomes with the goal of achieving a tipping point for better health. Our focus is on early life (ActEarly) in recognition of childhood and adolescence being such critical periods for influencing lifelong health and wellbeing