Patterns of distribution and spatial indicators of ecosystem change based on key species in the Southern Benguela

Several commercially and ecologically important species in the southern Benguela have undergone southward and eastward shifts in their distributions over previous decades, most notably the small pelagic fish sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus . Understanding these changes and their implications is essential in implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the southern Benguela and attempting to appreciate the potential impacts of future environmental change. To investigate possible impacts of these shifts at an ecosystem level, distribution maps for before (1985-1991), during (1997-2000) and after (2003-2008) the shift in small pelagic fish were constructed for 14 key species from catch and survey data, and used to calculate spatial indicators including proportion east and west of Cape Agulhas, relative overlap in biomass and area, index of diversity, connectivity. Potential interactions on the south and west coasts were also compared. For several species (redeye; chub mackerel; kingklip; chokka squid; yellowtail), previously unidentified increases in the proportion of biomass east of Cape Agulhas were shown to have occurred over the same period as that of small pelagic fish, although none to the same degree. On average, overlap with small pelagic fish increased over time and overall system connectivity was lowest in the intermediate period, possibly indicating a system under transition. Connectivity declined over time on the west coast while increasing on the east coast. Distributions of other species have changed over time, with the region east of Cape Agulhas becoming increasingly important in terms of potential trophic interaction. Variations in distribution of biomass and structural complexity affect the trophic structure and hence functioning of the system, and implications should be considered when attempting to identify the possible ecosystem impacts of current and future system-level change

Viability theory for an ecosystem approach to fisheries

AbstractMaintenance of overall ecosystem complexity is perceived as critical to the sustainability of ecosystem use. The development of an operational basis for an ecosystem approach to fisheries, however, faces many difficulties. On the research side, the challenge is in defining proper long-term, ecosystem-related objectives; determining meaningful reference values and indicators for desirable or undesirable states of the ecosystem; and developing appropriate data collection, analytical tools and models. The "viability" concept developed in economics by Jean-Pierre Aubin can be used to assist in the definition, selection of, and interaction among long-term objectives at an ecosystem level. It recognizes that ecosystems are complex assemblages of interacting and self-organizing natural and human components that cannot be predicted. Viability models define an ensemble of "viable states", in contrast to undesirable states defined as such by ecological, economic, and/or social constraints. These constraints can be derived from fisheries objectives, conservation principles, scientific results of modelling, or precautionary principles, and correspond to limit reference points to be avoided. Viability theory does not attempt to choose any "optimal solution" according to given criteria, but selects "viable evolutions". These evolutions are compatible with the constraints in the sense that they satisfy them at each time and can be delineated by the viability kernel. The southern Benguela marine ecosystem is presented as a first attempt for the application of this theory. In defining ecosystem-based objectives (and related issues such as target reference points), it seems more difficult to reach consensus among stakeholders on what is desirable than on what is undesirable (e.g. biological or economic collapse, species extinction, displacement of local rural communities). Expressed in the negative form or as limit reference points, ecosystem-based constraints can be considered simultaneously with current target reference points, such as maximum sustainable yield, using viability models. The viability approach can help to progressively integrate ecosystem considerations, such as conservation, into fisheries management

Combined fishing and climate forcing in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem: an end-to-end modelling approach reveals dampened effects

The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N 2 P 2 Z 2 D 2 -OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability

Human impacts on marine ecosystems

Marine Ecosystems and Global Change provides a detailed synthesis of the work conducted under the auspices of the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) programme. This research spans two decades, and represents the largest, multi-disciplinary, international effort focused on understanding the impacts of external forcing on the structure and dynamics of global marine ecosystems

Trophic level-based indicators to track fishing impacts across marine ecosystems

Trophic level (TL)-based indicators have been widely used to examine fishing impacts in aquatic ecosystems and the induced biodiversity changes. However, much debate has ensued regarding discrepancies and challenges arising from the use of landings data from commercial fisheries to calculate TL indicators. Subsequent studies have started to examine survey-based and model-based indicators. In this paper, we undertake an extensive evaluation of a variety of TL indicators across 9 well-studied marine ecosystems by making use of model- as well as survey and catch-based TL indicators. Using detailed regional information and data on fishing history, fishing intensity, and environmental conditions, we evaluate how well TL indicators are capturing fishing effects at the community level of marine ecosystems. Our results highlight that the differences observed between TL indicator values and trends is dependent on the data source and the TL cut-off point used in the calculations and is not attributable to an intrinsic problem with TL based indicators. All 3 data sources provide useful information about the structural changes in the ecosystem as a result of fishing, but our results indicate that only model-based indicators represent fishing impacts at the whole ecosystem level.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

2006 SQ372: A Likely Long-Period Comet from the Inner Oort Cloud

We report the discovery of a minor planet (2006 SQ372) on an orbit with a perihelion of 24 AU and a semimajor axis of 796 AU. Dynamical simulations show that this is a transient orbit and is unstable on a timescale of 200 Myrs. Falling near the upper semimajor axis range of the scattered disk and the lower semimajor axis range of the Oort Cloud, previous membership in either class is possible. By modeling the production of similar orbits from the Oort Cloud as well as from the scattered disk, we find that the Oort Cloud produces 16 times as many objects on SQ372-like orbits as the scattered disk. Given this result, we believe this to be the most distant long-period comet ever discovered. Furthermore, our simulation results also indicate that 2000 OO67 has had a similar dynamical history. Unaffected by the "Jupiter-Saturn Barrier," these two objects are most likely long-period comets from the inner Oort Cloud

Jellyfication of marine ecosystems as a likely consequence of overfishing small pelagic fishes: Lessons from the Benguela

Changes in two contrasting ecosystems of the Benguela upwelling region, one dominated at mid-trophic level by jellyfishes (Namibia, northern Benguela ecosystem, where small pelagic fish abundance has been severely depleted) and one still dominated by small pelagic fishes (South Africa, southern Benguela) were compared in an effort to determine ecosystem trajectories under different exploitation regimes. The role of small pelagic fishes (clupeoids) was highlighted in the context of their importance in maintaining interactions in marine ecosystems. In particular, we examined trophic cascades and possible irreversible changes that promote the proliferation of jellyfishes in marine systems. We found that the presence of large populations of small pelagic fishes has a fundamental role in preserving beneficial trophic interactions in these marine ecosystems. The implications of trophic cascades, such as those observed in the northern Benguela, for ecosystem-based management were apparent. In addition, this comparison provides contrasting case studies to inform the development of management scenarios that avoid ecosystem shifts that affect predators and reduce the value of fisheries production.Web of Scienc

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

The Vehicle, Fall 1987

Table of Contents Sketches in the SunRodger L. Patiencepage 3 Reflecting PoolRob Montgomerypage 5 Grandpa\u27s Porcelain DollRichard E. Hallpage 6 Tintype 1837Catherine Friemannpage 6 PhotographSteven M. Beamerpage 7 Washerwoman\u27s SongBob Zordanipage 8 Scrambled Eggs for D.O.Lynne A. Rafoolpage 8 my mother would sayMonica Grothpage 9 Retired by His ChildrenDan Von Holtenpage 10 I am the oldestMonica Grothpage 11 Ice on WheatRob Montgomerypage 12 The Nature of the RoseTroy Mayfieldpage 12 Past NebraskaDan Hornbostelpage 13 Five Minute Jamaican VacationChristy Dunphypage 14 PhotographSteven M. Beamerpage 14 The Angry PoemChristy Dunphypage 15 Road UnfamiliarChristy Dunphypage 15 raised voicesMonica Grothpage 16 Old Ladies & MiniskirtsKara Shannonpage 17 FreakspeakBob Zordanipage 18 PortraitDan Von Holtenpage 18 Mobile VacuumKathleen L. Fairfieldpage 19 Rev. Fermus DickSteve Hagemannpage 20 PhotographSteven M. Beamerpage 21 What\u27s the Name of That Flower?Richard Jesse Davispage 22 RequestChristy Dunphypage 23 SketchPaul Seabaughpage 24 ExperiencedMarilyn Wilsonpage 26 Leaving: Two ViewsTina Phillipspage 27 AntaeusDan Von Holtenpage 28 Misogyny at 19J. D. Finfrockpage 29 A Mental CrippleSteve Hagemannpage 32 AssociationsRhonda Ealypage 33 Banana BreadGail Bowerpage 34 Bill and JackBradford B. Autenpage 35 After Image No. 2Rob Montgomerypage 35 VrrooomBeth Goodmanpage 36 Mr. Modern LoverMolly Maddenpage 36 TravelogueRodger L. Patiencepage 37 Down the HighwayJoan Sebastianpage 38 A Retread HeavenRob Montgomerypage 41 StuporDan Von Holtenpage 42 Love Poem After a Seizure in Your BedBob Zordanipage 43 PalsyChristy Dunphypage 44 Interview with Mr. MatthewsBob Zordanipage 45 Chasing Down Hot Air Balloons on a Sunday MorningRob Montgomerypage 48https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1049/thumbnail.jp