The Futures Pricing Puzzle

This paper models commodity futures in a rational expectations equilibrium specifically (i) incorporating the conflict of interests between Hedgers (Producers-Consumers) and Speculators and (ii) superimposing constraints to immunize the real sector of the economy from shocks of excessive futures contracting. We extend the framework of Newbery and Stiglitz (1981), Anderson and Danthine (1983) and Britto (1984) to attribute the conflicting and puzzling results in the empirical literature to the presence of multiple equilibria ranked in a pecking order of decreasing pareto-efficiency. Thus, we caution empirical researchers on making inferences on data embedded with moving equilibria, as it can render their analysis of asset pricing mechanism incomprehensible. Finally, we rationalize the imposition of position limits by policy makers to help steer the equilibria to pareto-inferior ones, which make the real sector of the economy more resilient to shocks from the financial sectorContango, Expectations, Normal Backwardations

Negotiating with a logical-linguistic protocol in a dialogical framework

This book is the result of years of reflection. Some time ago, while working in commodities, the author felt how difficult it was to decide the order in which to use arguments during a negotiation process. What would happen if we translated the arguments into cards and played them according to the rules of the Bridge game? The results were impressive. There was potential for improvement in the negotiation process. The investigation went deeper, exploring players, cards, deals and the information concealed in the players´ announcements, in the cards and in the deals. This new angle brought the research to NeuroLinguistic Patterns and cryptic languages, such as Russian Cards. In the following pages, the author shares her discovery of a new application for Logical Dialogues: Negotiations, tackled from basic linguistic structures placed under a dialogue form as a cognitive system which ‘understands’ natural language, with the aim to solve conflicts and even to serve peace

Constructive Type Theory and the Dialogical Approach to Meaning

In its origins Dialogical logic constituted one part of a new movement called the Erlangen School or Erlangen Constructivism. Its goal was to provide a new start to a general theory of language and of science. According to the Erlangen-School, language is not just a fact that we discover, but a human cultural accomplishment whose construction reason can and should control. The resulting project of intentionally constructing a scientific language was called the Orthosprache-project. Unfortunately, the Orthosprache-project was not further developed and seemed to fade away. It is possible that one of the reasons for this fading away is that the link between dialogical logic and Orthosprache was not sufficiently developed - in particular, the new theory of meaning to be found in dialogical logic seemed to be cut off from both the project of establishing the basis for scientific language and also from a general theory of meaning. We would like to contribute to clarifying one possible way in which a general dialogical theory of meaning could be linked to dialogical logic. The idea behind the proposal is to make use of constructive type theory in which logical inferences are preceded by the description of a fully interpreted language. The latter, we think, provides the means for a new start not only for the project of Orthosprache, but also for a general dialogical theory of meaning

Some remarks on Hugh MacColl’s notion of symbolic existence

L’approche la plus influente de la logique des non-existences est celle provenant de la tradition Frege-Russell. L’un des plus importants dissidents à cette tradition, à ses débuts, était Hugh MacColl. C’est en relation avec la notion d’existence et avec les arguments impliquant des fictions, que le travail de MacColl montre une grande différence avec celui de ses contemporains. En effet, MacColl fut le premier à implémenter dans un système formel l’idée qu’introduire des fictions dans le domaine de la logique revient à fournir un langage muni de sous-domaines avec différents types d’objets. Dans cet article, nous avançons quelques remarques sur la portée de la logique de MacColl sur les non-existences. Plus précisément, nous suggérons qu’il y a un lien conceptuel fort entre la notion de subsistance chez Russell et la notion d’existencesymbolique chez MacColl.The most influential approach to the logic of non-existents is certainly the one stemming from the Frege-Russell tradition. One of the most important early dissidents to that tradition was Hugh MacColl. It is in relation to the notions of existence and arguments involving fictions that MacColl’s work shows a deep difference from the work of his contemporaries. Indeed, MacColl was the first to attempt to implement in a formal system the idea that to introduce fictions in the context of logic amounts to providing a many-sorted language. The main aim of the paper is to add some brief remarks that should complete the scope of MacColl’s logic of non-existence. More precisely, I will suggest that there seems to be a strong conceptual link between Russell’s notion of subsistence and MacColl’s notion of symbolic existence

Identification of homogeneous rainfall regions in New South Wales, Australia

Identifying homogeneous regions based on spatial variables is vital for providing a certain and fixed region’s spatial and temporal behavior. However, a significant problem of non-separation rises when the geographic coordinates are utilized for clustering, just because the Euclidean distance is not suitable for clustering when considering the geographic coordinates. Therefore, this study focuses on employing such methods where the non-separation is minimum for identifying homogenous regions. The average annual rainfall data of 226 meteorological monitoring stations for 1911–2018 of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, was considered for the current study. The data is standardized with zero mean and unit variance to remove the effect of different measurement scales. The geographical coordinates are then converted to rectangular coordinates by the Lambert projection method. Using the Partition Around Medoid (PAM) algorithm, also known as the kmedoid algorithm (which minimizes the sum of dissimilarities instead of the sum of squares of Euclidean distances) on rectangular Lambert projected coordinates, 10 well-separated clusters are obtained. The Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) is comparatively smaller if the prediction of unobserved locations in cluster 3 is made. However, this error increases if the prediction is made for a complete monitoring network. The identified 10 homogeneous regions or clusters provide a good separation when the lambert coordinates are used instead of geographical coordinates

Molecular Identification of Genetically Modified Crops for Biosafety and Legitimacy of Transgenes

Crops undergo artificially DNA modifications for improvements are considered as genetically modified (GM) crops. These modifications could be in indigenous DNA or by introduction of foreign DNA as transgenes. There are 29 different crops and fruit trees in 42 countries, which have been successfully modified for various traits like herbicide tolerance, insect/pest resistance, disease resistance and quality improvement. GM crops are grown worldwide and its area is significantly increasing every year. Many countries have very strict rules and regulations for GM crops and are also a trade barrier in some situations. Hence, identification and testing of crops for GM contents is important for identity and legitimacy of transgene to simplify the international trade. Normally, molecular identification is performed at three different levels, i.e., DNA, RNA and protein, and each level has its own importance in testing about the nature and type of GM crops. In this chapter, current scenario of GM crops and different molecular testing tools are described in brief

A Further Extension of the Extended Riemann-Liouville Fractional Derivative Operator

The main objective of this paper is to establish the extension of an extended fractional derivative operator by using an extended beta function recently defined by Parmar et al. by considering the Bessel functions in its kernel. We also give some results related to the newly defined fractional operator, such as Mellin transform and relations to extended hypergeometric and Appell\u27s function via generating functions

A Result and Discussion of the Dynamic Assessment Approach in Language Teaching: A Literature Review Study

Dynamic assessment is conceptually based on the sociocultural theory of Lev Vygotsky in the Zone Proximal Development. This paper aimed to discuss dynamic assessment in assessing students` reading comprehension. The limitation of this article will only discuss the definition of dynamic assessment, the historical framework of dynamic assessment, teacher roles in dynamic assessment, dynamic assessment in a foreign language, dynamic assessment of writing, dynamic assessment of reading comprehension, and the advantages and disadvantages of dynamic assessment. Based on literature studies, the dynamic assessment approach is effective in English teaching. It can conclude that this approach can be adopted and developed by English teachers to encourage students` motivation and participation in learning English.           &nbsp

Dialogical Harmony: tonk, constructive type theory and rules for anonymous players

Recent literature on dialogical logic discusses the case of tonk and the notion harmony in the context of a rule-based theory of meaning. Now, since the publications of those papers, a dialogical version of constructive type theory (CTT) has been developed. The aim of the present paper is to show that, from the dialogical point of view, the harmony of the CTT-rules is the consequence of a more fundamental level of meaning characterized by the independence of players. We hope that the following paper will contribute to a better understanding of the dialogical notion of meaning