Modelling the impacts of wildfire on the viability of metapopulations of the endangered Australian species of arboreal marsupial, Leadbeater's Possum

Catastrophic events such as intensive wildfires have a major effect on the dynamics of some wildlife populations. In this investigation, the computer package ALEX (Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction), was used to simulate the impacts of wildfires on the persistence of metapopulations of the endangered species Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) which is restricted to the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. A range of scenarios was examined. First, the response of G. leadbeateri to tires in hypothetical patches of old growth forest of varying size was modelled. Metapopulation dynamics were then modelled in four existing forest management areas: the O'Shannassy Water Catchment and the Steavenson, Ada and Murrindindi Forest Blocks using GIS-derived forest inventory data on complex spatial arrangements of potentially suitable old growth habitat patches. The impacts of different fire frequencies and the proportion of forest area that was burnt in the Steavenson Forest Block and the O'Shannassy Water Catchment were examined. Finally, the combined impacts of both wildfires and post-fire salvage logging operations on the persistence of populations of G. leadbeateri were assessed. Our analyses indicated that, even in the absence of wildfires, populations of G. leadbeateri are very susceptible to extinction within single isolated habitat patches of 20 ha or less. The probability of persistence approached 100% in patches of 250 ha. The incorporation of the effects of wildfire was predicted to have a major negative impact on isolated populations of G. leadbeateri. In these cases, the probability of population extinction remained above 60%, even when a single patch of 1200 ha of old growth forest was modelled. In the absence of wildfires, there was a low probability of extinction of G. leadbeateri in the O'Shannassy Water Catchment where very large patches of old growth forest presently exist. The risk of extinction of the species was significantly higher in the Murrindindi and Ada Forest Blocks where there are lower total areas of, and significantly smaller, suitable habitat patches. Wildfires resulted in an increase in the predicted probability of metapopulation extinction in the four areas that were targeted for study. An investigation of the Steavenson Forest Block and the O'Shannassy Water Catchment revealed that the predicted values for the probability of extinction were sensitive to inter-relationships between the frequency of fires and the proportion of habitat patches that were burnt during a given fire event. The probability of extinction of G. leadbeateri was predicted to be lowest when there were frequent fires that burnt only relatively small areas of a given forest block. Conversely, the results of our analyses suggested that populations of the species are vulnerable to infrequent but intensive conflagrations that burnt a large proportion of the forest. The results of the suite of analyses completed in this study suggest hat four management strategies will be important for the long-term conservation of G. leadbeateri. (1) Attempts to suppress wildfires should be maintained as even the largest remaining areas of old growth forest may be susceptible to being burnt by repeated widespread wildfires that could result in localised and/or global extinction of the species. (2) Because the probability of population persistence is greatest in those areas that support more extensive stands of old growth forest, it will be important to grow relatively large patches of existing regrowth forest (over 50 ha) through to ecological maturity. This will be particularly important in some wood production forest blocks where there are only limited areas of old growth forest. (3) Patches that are set aside for the conservation of G. leadbeateri should be spatially separated to minimise the risk that all of the reserved areas in a region are destroyed in a single major fire event. (4) Salvage logging operations should be excluded from stands of old growth forest and reserved areas that are burnt in a wildfire. This is because such activities can have a major negative impact of the development of suitable habitat for G. leadbeateri

Supermassive Binaries and Extragalactic Jets

Some quasars show Doppler shifted broad emission line peaks. I give new statistics of the occurrence of these peaks and show that, while the most spectacular cases are in quasars with strong radio jets inclined to the line of sight, they are also almost as common in radio-quiet quasars. Theories of the origin of the peaks are reviewed and it is argued that the displaced peaks are most likely produced by the supermassive binary model. The separations of the peaks in the 3C 390.3-type objects are consistent with orientation-dependent "unified models" of quasar activity. If the supermassive binary model is correct, all members of "the jet set" (astrophysical objects showing jets) could be binaries.Comment: 31 pages, PostScript, missing figure is in ApJ 464, L105 (see http://www.aas.org/ApJ/v464n2/5736/5736.html

The Conservation Of Arboreal Marsupials In The Montane Ash Forests Of The Central Highlands Of Victoria, South-Eastern Australia - VII. Modelling The Persistence Of Leadbeater's Possum In Response To Modified Timber Harvesting Practices

A computer model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was used to simulate the relationship between the persistence of populations of the endangered species, Leadbeater's possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri and the implementation of a range of possible modified timber harvesting practices in two wood production blocks within the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. The results of our analyses revealed that under the existing conservation strategies there was a high probability of extinction over the next 150 years in both blocks. Given that timber production areas comprise more than 75% of the distribution of G. leadbeateri, our findings highlight a need for additional conservation measures to enhance the survival prospects of the species. The range of upgraded conservation strategies that were examined included (1) extending the rotation time between logging operations; (2) modifying silvicultural practices to increase the amount of forest retained within each harvested coupe; and (3) permanently withdrawing areas from wood production. All of each of these approaches were found significantly to reduce the probability of extinction of populations of G. leadbeateri. However, when the relative merits of the various strategies were compared, the permanent withdrawal of potential logging coupes from timber harvesting was predicted to be the most efficient approach. Importantly, this strategy would have a number of practical advantages including that it overcomes both (1) the logistic difficulties of ensuring the long-term survival of retained trees within logged areas; and (2) human safety issues arising from implementing modified silvicultural practices. This practical application of PVA to compare the merits of different potential management options has provided new information that will enhance present efforts to conserve G. leadbeateri in wood production areas

Broadband Quantum Enhancement of the LIGO Detectors with Frequency-Dependent Squeezing

Quantum noise imposes a fundamental limitation on the sensitivity of interferometric gravitational-wave detectors like LIGO, manifesting as shot noise and quantum radiation pressure noise. Here, we present the first realization of frequency-dependent squeezing in full-scale gravitational-wave detectors, resulting in the reduction of both shot noise and quantum radiation pressure noise, with broadband detector enhancement from tens of hertz to several kilohertz. In the LIGO Hanford detector, squeezing reduced the detector noise amplitude by a factor of 1.6 (4.0 dB) near 1 kHz; in the Livingston detector, the noise reduction was a factor of 1.9 (5.8 dB). These improvements directly impact LIGO's scientific output for high-frequency sources (e.g., binary neutron star postmerger physics). The improved low-frequency sensitivity, which boosted the detector range by 15%-18% with respect to no squeezing, corresponds to an increase in the astrophysical detection rate of up to 65%. Frequency-dependent squeezing was enabled by the addition of a 300-meter-long filter cavity to each detector as part of the LIGO A+ upgrade

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

Search for Tensor, Vector, and Scalar Polarizations in the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

The detection of gravitational waves with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo has enabled novel tests of general relativity, including direct study of the polarization of gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for only two tensor gravitational-wave polarizations, general metric theories can additionally predict two vector and two scalar polarizations. The polarization of gravitational waves is encoded in the spectral shape of the stochastic gravitational-wave background, formed by the superposition of cosmological and individually unresolved astrophysical sources. Using data recorded by Advanced LIGO during its first observing run, we search for a stochastic background of generically polarized gravitational waves. We find no evidence for a background of any polarization, and place the first direct bounds on the contributions of vector and scalar polarizations to the stochastic background. Under log-uniform priors for the energy in each polarization, we limit the energy densities of tensor, vector, and scalar modes at 95% credibility to Ω0T<5.58×10-8, Ω0V<6.35×10-8, and Ω0S<1.08×10-7 at a reference frequency f0=25 Hz. © 2018 American Physical Society

Erratum: "A Gravitational-wave Measurement of the Hubble Constant Following the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo" (2021, ApJ, 909, 218)

[no abstract available