Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleo-climate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5-PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change

New Mediterranean Biodiversity Records (April 2015)

The Collective Article ‘New Mediterranean Biodiversity Records’ of the Mediterranean Marine Science journal offers the means to publish biodiversity records in the Mediterranean Sea. The current article is divided in two parts, for records of native and alien species respectively. The new records of native fish species include: the slender sunfish Ranzania laevis and the scalloped ribbonfish Zu cristatus in Calabria; the Azores rockling Gaidropsarus granti in Calabria and Sicily; the agujon needlefish Tylosu¬rus acus imperialis in the Northern Aegean; and the amphibious behaviour of Gouania willdenowi in Southern Turkey. As regards molluscs, the interesting findings include Ischnochiton usticensis in Calabria and Thordisa filix in the bay of Piran (Slovenia). The stomatopod Parasquilla ferussaci was collected from Lesvos island (Greece); the isopod Anilocra frontalis was observed parasit¬izing the alien Pteragogus trispilus in the Rhodes area. The asteroid Tethyaster subinermis and the butterfly ray Gymnura altavela were reported from several localities in the Greek Ionian and Aegean Seas.The new records of alien species include: the antenna codlet Bregmaceros atlanticus in Saronikos Gulf; three new fish records and two decapods from Egypt; the establishment of the two spot cardinal fish Cheilodipterus novemstriatus and the first record of the marble shrimp Saron marmoratus in semi-dark caves along the Lebanese coastline; the finding of Lagocephalus sceleratus, Sargocentron rubrum, Fistularia commersonii and Stephanolepis diaspros around Lipsi island (Aegean Sea, Greece); the decapod Penaeus Hathor in Aegean waters; the decapod Penaeus aztecus and the nudibranch Melibe viridis in the Dodecanese islands; the finding of Pinctada imbricata radiate in the Mar Grande of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Italy) and the Maliakos Gulf (Greece)

Forzamiento externo, respuesta térmica y sensibilidad climática en simulaciones y reconstrucciones del último milenio

Ponencia presentada en: XXXII Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Alcobendas (Madrid), del 28 al 30 de mayo de 2012.El presente trabajo analiza un conjunto de 26 simulaciones forzadas procedentes de 8 modelos climáticos acoplados de atmósfera y océano (del inglés, AOGCMs) para el último milenio

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades

Assessing reconstruction techniques of the Atlantic Ocean circulation variability during the last millennium

We assess the use of the meridional thermal-wind transport estimated from zonal density gradients to reconstruct the oceanic circulation variability during the last millennium in a forced simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. Following a perfect-model approach, model-based pseudo-reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Florida Current volume transport (FCT) are evaluated against their true simulated variability. The pseudo-FCT is additionally verified as proxy for AMOC strength and compared with the available proxy-based reconstruction. The thermal-wind component reproduces most of the simulated AMOC variability, which is mostly driven by internal climate dynamics during the preindustrial period and by increasing greenhouse gases afterwards. The pseudo-reconstructed FCT reproduces well the simulated FCT and reasonably well the variability of the AMOC strength, including the response to external forcing. The pseudo-reconstructed FCT, however, underestimates/overestimates the simulated variability at deep/shallow levels. Density changes responsible for the pseudo-reconstructed FCT are mainly driven by zonal temperature differences; salinity differences oppose but play a minor role. These results thus support the use of the thermal-wind relationship to reconstruct the oceanic circulation past variability, in particular at multidecadal timescales. Yet model-data comparison highlights important differences between the simulated and the proxy-based FCT variability. ECHO-G simulates a prominent weakening in the North Atlantic circulation that contrasts with the reconstructed enhancement. Our model results thus do not support the reconstructed FC minimum during the Little Ice Age. This points to a failure in the reconstruction, misrepresented processes in the model, or an important role of internal ocean dynamics

The climatic impact‐driver framework for assessment of risk‐relevant climate information

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand-driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact-driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co-developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities

Solar forcing and climate variability in the North Atlantic during the last millennium: comparison between models and reconstructions

International audienceStudying the climate of the last millennium allows replacing the present climate change in a long term context. Since it is a relatively well-documented period, it provides an interesting base to assess the secular variability of the climate, free of anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence. Considering this, the climate of the last millennium is likely to have been driven by natural forcings, such as major volcanic eruptions or solar variability. We present here the results of the simulations performed with the IPSLCM4v2 climate model for the French ANR ESCARSEL project (reconstruction of the climate of the last millennium). In order to understand the role of the solar variability during this period, we have forced the model with a reconstruction of the Total Solar Irradiance since 1000AD (Crowley et al., 2000). The results are compared with various reconstructions based on proxy data, from the hemispheric to the continental scale. A new reconstruction of the temperature in Europe since 600AD (annual April to September mean, based on tree rings data) has been achieved within the ESCARSEL project. This dataset provides the possibility to compare the spatial response of the model to the solar forcing with the corresponding temperature patterns recorded in the proxys. As a first step we present the results on the long term variability, before focusing on selected periods to assess the spatial behaviour of the model to different value of the total solar irradiance. Crowley et al. 2000, Causes of climate change over the past 1000yrs, Science 289, 27

Influence of solar variability, CO2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model

International audienceStudying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO 2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO 2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ∼80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000-1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ∼5.10 6 km 2 , i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65 • N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent stud

The Climatic Impact-Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk-Relevant Climate Information

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand-driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact-driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co-developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities