Overstating the evidence - double counting in meta-analysis and related problems

Background: The problem of missing studies in meta-analysis has received much attention. Less attention has been paid to the more serious problem of double counting of evidence. Methods: Various problems in overstating the precision of results from meta-analyses are described and illustrated with examples, including papers from leading medical journals. These problems include, but are not limited to, simple double-counting of the same studies, double counting of some aspects of the studies, inappropriate imputation of results, and assigning spurious precision to individual studies. Results: Some suggestions are made as to how the quality and reliability of meta-analysis can be improved. It is proposed that the key to quality in meta-analysis lies in the results being transparent and checkable. Conclusions: Existing quality check lists for meta-analysis do little to encourage an appropriate attitude to combining evidence and to statistical analysis. Journals and other relevant organisations should encourage authors to make data available and make methods explicit. They should also act promptly to withdraw meta-analyses when mistakes are found

The outstanding scientist, R.A. Fisher:His views on eugenics and race

R.A. Fisher was one of the greatest scientists of the 20th century (Fig. 1). He was a man of extraordinary ability and originality whose scientific contributions ranged over a very wide area of science, from biology through statistics to ideas on continental drift, and whose work has had a huge positive impact on human welfare. Not surprisingly, some of his large volume of work is not widely used or accepted at the current time, but his scientific brilliance has never been challenged. He was from an early age a supporter of certain eugenic ideas, and it is for this reason that he has been accused of being a racist and an advocate of forced sterilisation (Evans 2020). His promotion of eugenics has recently caused various organisations to remove his name from awards and dedications of buildings (Tarran 2020; Rothamsted Research 2020; Society for the Study of Evolution 2020; Gonville and Caius College 2020). A primary aim of this paper is to conduct a careful analysis of his own writings in these areas. Our purpose is neither to defend nor attack Fisher’s work in eugenics and views on race, but to present a careful account of their substance and nature.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Understanding Variation in Sets of N-of-1 Trials.

A recent paper in this journal by Chen and Chen has used computer simulations to examine a number of approaches to analysing sets of n-of-1 trials. We have examined such designs using a more theoretical approach based on considering the purpose of analysis and the structure as regards randomisation that the design uses. We show that different purposes require different analyses and that these in turn may produce quite different results. Our approach to incorporating the randomisation employed when the purpose is to test a null hypothesis of strict equality of the treatment makes use of Nelder's theory of general balance. However, where the purpose is to make inferences about the effects for individual patients, we show that a mixed model is needed. There are strong parallels to the difference between fixed and random effects meta-analyses and these are discussed

14th Annual Conference on Legal Issues For Financial Institutions

Materials from the 14th Annual Conference on Legal Issues For Financial Institutions held by UK/CLE in March 1994

STEPWISE - STructured lifestyle Education for People WIth SchizophrEnia : a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: People with schizophrenia are two to three times more likely to be overweight than the general population. The UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends an annual physical health review with signposting to, or provision of, a lifestyle programme to address weight concerns and obesity. The purpose of this randomised controlled trial is to assess whether a group-based structured education programme can help people with schizophrenia to lose weight. METHODS: Design: a randomised controlled trial of a group-based structured education programme. SETTING: 10 UK community mental health trusts. PARTICIPANTS: 396 adults with schizophrenia, schizoaffective, or first-episode psychosis who are prescribed antipsychotic medication will be recruited. Participants will be overweight, obese or be concerned about their weight. INTERVENTION: participants will be randomised to either the intervention or treatment as usual (TAU). The intervention arm will receive TAU plus four 2.5-h weekly sessions of theory-based lifestyle structured group education, with maintenance contact every 2 weeks and 'booster' sessions every 3 months. All participants will receive standardised written information about healthy eating, physical activity, alcohol and smoking. OUTCOMES: the primary outcome is weight (kg) change at 1 year post randomisation. Secondary outcomes, which will be assessed at 3 and 12 months, include: the proportion of participants who maintained or reduced their weight; waist circumference; body mass index; objectively measured physical activity (wrist accelerometer); self-reported diet; blood pressure; fasting plasma glucose, lipid profile and HbA1c (baseline and 1 year only); health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L and RAND SF-36); (adapted) brief illness perception questionnaire; the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale; the Client Service Receipt Inventory; medication use; smoking status; adverse events; depression symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9); use of weight-loss programmes; and session feedback (intervention only). Outcome assessors will be blind to trial group allocation. Qualitative interviews with a subsample of facilitators and invention-arm participants will provide data on intervention feasibility and acceptability. Assessment of intervention fidelity will also be performed. DISCUSSION: The STEPWISE trial will provide evidence for the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a tailored intervention, which, if successful, could be implemented rapidly in the NHS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN19447796 , registered on 20 March 2014

Intermittent Preventive Treatment for Malaria in Papua New Guinean Infants Exposed to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax: A Randomized Controlled Trial

A three-arm randomized trial conducted among infants in Papua New Guinea estimates the preventive effect against malaria episodes of intermittent preventive treatment, in an area where children are exposed to both falciparum and vivax malaria

The impact of tubal ectopic pregnancy in Papua New Guinea - a retrospective case review

BACKGROUND: Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality amongst women of reproductive age. Tubal EP is well described in industrialised countries, but less is known about its impact in low-resource countries, in particular in the South Pacific Region. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective review of women with tubal EP treated at a provincial referral hospital in coastal Papua New Guinea over a period of 56 months. Demographic and clinical variables were obtained from patients’ medical records and analysed. The institutional rate of tubal EP was calculated, and diagnosis and management reviewed. Potential risk factors for tubal EP were identified, and delays contributing to increased morbidity described. RESULTS: A total of 73 women had tubal EP. The institutional rate of tubal EP over the study period was 6.3 per 1,000 deliveries. There were no maternal deaths due to EP. The mean age of women was 31.5+/−5.7 years, 85% were parous, 67% were rural dwellers and 62% had a history of sub-fertility. The most commonly used diagnostic aid was culdocentesis. One third of women had clinical evidence of shock on arrival. All women with tubal EP were managed by open salpingectomy. Tubal rupture was confirmed for 48% of patients and was more common amongst rural dwellers. Forty-three percent of women had macroscopic evidence of pelvic infection. Two-thirds of patients received blood transfusions, and post-operative recovery lasted six days on average. Late presentation, lack of clinical suspicion, and delays with receiving appropriate treatments were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Tubal EP is a common gynaecological emergency in a referral hospital in coastal PNG, and causes significant morbidity, in particular amongst women residing in rural areas. Sexually transmitted infections are likely to represent the most important risk factor for tubal EP in PNG. Interventions to reduce the morbidity due to tubal EP include the prevention, detection and treatment of sexually transmitted infections, identification and reduction of barriers to prompt presentation, increasing health workers’ awareness of ectopic pregnancy, providing pregnancy test kits to rural health centres, and strengthening hospital blood transfusion services, including facilities for autotransfusion

Differential White Blood Cell Count and Type 2 Diabetes: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cross-Sectional and Prospective Studies

Objective: Biological evidence suggests that inflammation might induce type 2 diabetes (T2D), and epidemiological studies have shown an association between higher white blood cell count (WBC) and T2D. However, the association has not been systematically investigated.Research Design and Methods: Studies were identified through computer-based and manual searches. Previously unreported studies were sought through correspondence. 20 studies were identified (8,647 T2D cases and 85,040 non-cases). Estimates of the association of WBC with T2D were combined using random effects meta-analysis; sources of heterogeneity as well as presence of publication bias were explored.Results: The combined relative risk (RR) comparing the top to bottom tertile of the WBC count was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.45; 1.79, p = 1.5*10(-18)). Substantial heterogeneity was present (I-2 = 83%). For granulocytes the RR was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.17; 1.64, p = 1.5*10(-4)), for lymphocytes 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02; 1.56, p = 0.029), and for monocytes 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68; 1.28, p = 0.67) comparing top to bottom tertile. In cross-sectional studies, RR was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.49; 2.02, p = 7.7*10(-13)), while in cohort studies it was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.22; 1.79, p = 7.7*10(-5)). We assessed the impact of confounding in EPIC-Norfolk study and found that the age and sex adjusted HR of 2.19 (95% CI: 1.74; 2.75) was attenuated to 1.82 (95% CI: 1.45; 2.29) after further accounting for smoking, T2D family history, physical activity, education, BMI and waist circumference.Conclusions: A raised WBC is associated with higher risk of T2D. The presence of publication bias and failure to control for all potential confounders in all studies means the observed association is likely an overestimate