Diagnosing client faults using SVM-based intelligent inference from TCP packet traces

We present the Intelligent Automated Client Diagnostic (IACD) system, which only relies on inference from Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) packet traces for rapid diagnosis of client device problems that cause network performance issues. Using soft-margin Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers, the system (i) distinguishes link problems from client problems, and (ii) identifies characteristics unique to client faults to report the root cause of the client device problem. Experimental evaluation demonstrated the capability of the IACD system to distinguish between faulty and healthy links and to diagnose the client faults with 98% accuracy in healthy links. The system can perform fault diagnosis independent of the client's specific TCP implementation, enabling diagnosis capability on diverse range of client computers.Comment: 2011 6th International Conference on Broadband and Biomedical Communications (IB2COM

Global effects of land use on biodiversity differ among functional groups

Human land use has caused substantial declines in global species richness. Evidence from different taxonomic groups and geographic regions suggests that land use does not equally impact all organisms within terrestrial ecological communities, and that different functional groups of species may respond differently. In particular, we expect large carnivores to decline more in disturbed land uses than other animal groups. We present the first global synthesis of responses to land use across functional groups using data from a wide set of animal species, including herbivores, omnivores, carnivores, fungivores and detritivores; and ranging in body mass from 2 × 10^{-6} g (an oribatid mite) to 3,825 kg (the African elephant). We show that the abundance of large endotherms, small ectotherms, carnivores and fungivores (although in the last case, not significantly) are reduced disproportionately in human land uses compared with the abundance of other functional groups. The results, suggesting that certain functional groups are consistently favoured over others in land used by humans, imply a substantial restructuring of ecological communities. Given that different functional groups make unique contributions to ecological processes, it is likely that there will be substantial impacts on the functioning of ecosystems

An index to quantify an individual's scientific research output that takes into account the effect of multiple coauthorship

I propose the index $\hbar$ ("hbar"), defined as the number of papers of an individual that have citation count larger than or equal to the $\hbar$ of all coauthors of each paper, as a useful index to characterize the scientific output of a researcher that takes into account the effect of multiple coauthorship. The bar is higher for $\hbar$.Comment: A few minor changes from v1. To be published in Scientometric

Education can improve the negative perception of a threatened long-lived scavenging bird, the Andean condor

Human-wildlife conflicts currently represent one of the main conservation problems for wildlife species around the world. Vultures have serious conservation concerns, many of which are related to people's adverse perception about them due to the belief that they prey on livestock. Our aim was to assess local perception and the factors influencing people's perception of the largest scavenging bird in South America, the Andean condor. For this, we interviewed 112 people from Valle Fértil, San Juan province, a rural area of central west Argentina. Overall, people in the area mostly have an elementary education, and their most important activity is livestock rearing. The results showed that, in general, most people perceive the Andean condor as an injurious species and, in fact, some people recognize that they still kill condors. We identified two major factors that affect this perception, the education level of villagers and their relationship with livestock ranching. Our study suggests that conservation of condors and other similar scavengers depends on education programs designed to change the negative perception people have about them. Such programs should be particularly focused on ranchers since they are the ones who have the worst perception of these scavengers. We suggest that highlighting the central ecological role of scavengers and recovering their cultural value would be fundamental to reverse their persecution and their negative perception by people.Fil: Cailly Arnulphi, Verónica Beatríz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; ArgentinaFil: Lambertucci, Sergio Agustin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Borghi, Carlos Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; Argentin

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Decline of Birds in a Human Modified Coastal Dune Forest Landscape in South Africa

Previous studies demonstrate that old-growth forest remnants and vegetation regenerating after anthropogenic disturbance provide habitat for birds in a human modified coastal dune forest landscape in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. However, occurrence does not ensure persistence. Based on a 13-year monitoring database we calculated population trends for 37 bird species and general trends in overall bird density in different vegetation types. We evaluated species' characteristics as covariates of population trend and assessed changes in rainfall and proportional area and survey coverage per vegetation type. 76% of species assessed have declined, 57% significantly so at an average rate of 13.9% per year. Overall, bird density has fallen at 12.2% per year across old-growth forest and woody regenerating vegetation types. Changes in proportional area and coverage per vegetation type may partly explain trends for a few species but are unlikely to account for most. Below average rainfall may have contributed to bird declines. However, other possibilities warrant further investigation. Species with larger range extents tended to decline more sharply than did others, and these species may be responding to environmental changes on a broader geographical scale. Our results cast doubt on the future persistence of birds in this human modified landscape. More research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms driving population decline in the study area and to investigate whether the declines identified here are more widespread across the region and perhaps the continent

Spatially explicit poisoning risk affects survival rates of an obligate scavenger

Obligate scavengers such as vultures provide critical ecosystem services and their populations have undergone severe declines in Asia and Africa. Intentional poisoning is a major threat to vultures in Africa, yet the impact on vulture populations of where poisoned carcasses are positioned is not known. We used re-sightings of 183 African white-backed vultures captured and tagged in two regions of South Africa, some 200 km apart, to estimate spatial differences in relative survival rates across life stages. Juvenile survival rates were similar in the two regions, whilst subadult and adult survival rates differed significantly. Using agent-based modelling, we show that this pattern of relative survival rates is consistent between regions that differ in intensity of poisoning, despite the proximity of the two regions. This may have important consequences for vulture conservation and the targeting of conservation efforts, particularly with regard to the efficacy of “vulture safe zones” around vulture breeding populations

Differential survival throughout the full annual cycle of a migratory bird presents a life-history trade-off.

Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = −0.816; 95% credible interval: −1.290 to −0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world

Drivers and Socioeconomic Impacts of Tourism Participation in Protected Areas

Nature-based tourism has the potential to enhance global biodiversity conservation by providing alternative livelihood strategies for local people, which may alleviate poverty in and around protected areas. Despite the popularity of the concept of nature-based tourism as an integrated conservation and development tool, empirical research on its actual socioeconomic benefits, on the distributional pattern of these benefits, and on its direct driving factors is lacking, because relevant long-term data are rarely available. In a multi-year study in Wolong Nature Reserve, China, we followed a representative sample of 220 local households from 1999 to 2007 to investigate the diverse benefits that these households received from recent development of nature-based tourism in the area. Within eight years, the number of households directly participating in tourism activities increased from nine to sixty. In addition, about two-thirds of the other households received indirect financial benefits from tourism. We constructed an empirical household economic model to identify the factors that led to household-level participation in tourism. The results reveal the effects of local households' livelihood assets (i.e., financial, human, natural, physical, and social capitals) on the likelihood to participate directly in tourism. In general, households with greater financial (e.g., income), physical (e.g., access to key tourism sites), human (e.g., education), and social (e.g., kinship with local government officials) capitals and less natural capital (e.g., cropland) were more likely to participate in tourism activities. We found that residents in households participating in tourism tended to perceive more non-financial benefits in addition to more negative environmental impacts of tourism compared with households not participating in tourism. These findings suggest that socioeconomic impact analysis and change monitoring should be included in nature-based tourism management systems for long-term sustainability of protected areas

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts