Die Marktrisikoprämie des DAX nach dem Dividenden- und Gewinnwachstumsmodell von Fama/French (2002)

Die Marktrisikoprämie ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen in der Finanzwissenschaft, da sie elementarer Bestandteil der Kapitalkostenberechnung nach dem CAPM-Modell ist. Allerdings ist die Höhe der Marktrisikoprämie auch ein Politikum, da diese am Markt nicht direkt beobachtbar ist und lediglich auf Basis verschiedener Verfahren und Zeitreihen geschätzt werden kann. Die nicht nur in der deutschen Bewertungspraxis beliebte historische Methode hat dabei den Nachteil, dass sie maßgeblich von der Wahl des zugrundeliegenden Beobachtungszeitraums und zudem von den hohen Kurssteigerungen der letzten 30 Jahre bestimmt werden. Als mögliche Alternative wird im Folgenden ein Ansatz von Fama und French auf den DAX übertragen, bei dem die Marktrisikoprämie mithilfe fundamentaler Unternehmensdaten geschätzt wird. Das Dividenden- und das Gewinnwachstumsmodell nach Fama und French schätzt die erwartete Marktrisikoprämie auf Basis der historisch beobachteten Dividendenrendite sowie des Dividenden- bzw. Gewinnwachstums der einzelnen im Marktindex erfassten Unternehmen

Linear Transformer Drivers for Z-Pinch Based Propulsion

No abstract availabl

Translating the Cognitive Model of PTSD to the Treatment of Very Young Children: A Single Case Study of an 8-Year-Old Motor Vehicle Accident Survivor.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a clinical condition that occurs after a discrete traumatic event, such as an accident or assault. Research into PTSD has primarily been adult-focused; however, there is a growing body of evidence evaluating the theory and treatment of PTSD in young children. Consequently, cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) interventions for PTSD in youth have been developed that focus on 3 core components of the cognitive model-a disorganized memory of the trauma, maladaptive appraisals of the trauma and its effects (meanings), and dysfunctional coping mechanisms (management). Here, we describe the extension of this treatment approach (termed CBT-3M) to very young children (3-8 years) through the case of Dylan, an 8-year-old motor vehicle accident survivor. This serves as an illustration of the underlying theory and its successful application. Further work is intended to provide evidence of the efficacy of this treatment via an ongoing treatment trial

Linked (Open) Data - Bibliographische Daten im Semantic Web

Linked (Open) Data - bibliographic data on the Semantic Web. Report of the Working Group on Linked Data to the plenary assembly of the Austrian Library Network (translation of the title). Linked Data stands for a certain approach to publishing data on the Web. The underlying idea is to harmonise heterogeneous data sources of different origin in order to improve their accessibility and interoperability, effectively making them queryable as a big distributed database. This report summarises relevant developments in Europe as well as the Linked Data Working Group‘s strategic and technical considerations regarding the publishing of the Austrian Library Network’s (OBV’s) bibliographic datasets. It concludes with the mutual agreement that the implementation of Linked Data principles within the OBV can only be taken into consideration accompanied by a discussion about the provision of the datasets under a free license.Linked Data steht für eine bestimmte Form der Veröffentlichung von Daten via Internet. Die zu Grunde liegende Idee ist es, Daten verschiedenster Provenienz, die derzeit teilweise gar nicht oder nur schwer zugänglich sind, in möglichst einheitlicher Form miteinander zu verknüpfen und dadurch in ihrer Gesamtheit abfragbar zu machen. Dieser Bericht fasst die Entwicklungen im europäischen Raum, sowie strategische und technische Überlegungen der AG Linked Data hinsichtlich der Veröffentlichung von bibliothekarischen Daten des Österreichischen Bibliothekenverbundes (OBV) zusammen und schließt mit der gemeinsamen Übereinkunft, dass die Umsetzung von Linked Data-Prinzipien im OBV nur in Zusammenhang mit einer Diskussion über die damit einhergehende Veröffentlichung der Daten unter einer freien Lizenz angedacht werden sollte

Sense-making strategies in explorative intelligence analysis of network evolutions

Visualising how social networks evolve is important in intelligence analysis in order to detect and monitor issues, such as emerging crime patterns or rapidly growing groups of offenders. It remains an open research question how this type of information should be presented for visual exploration. To get a sense of how users work with different types of visualisations, we evaluate a matrix and a node-link diagram in a controlled thinking aloud study. We describe the sense-making strategies that users adopted during explorative and realistic tasks. Thereby, we focus on the user behaviour in switching between the two visualisations and propose a set of nine strategies. Based on a qualitative and quantitative content analysis we show which visualisation supports which strategy better. We find that the two visualisations clearly support intelligence tasks and that for some tasks the combined use is more advantageous than the use of an individual visualisation

Identification of production challenges and benefits using value chain mapping of egg food systems in Nairobi, Kenya

Commercial layer and indigenous chicken farming in Nairobi and associated activities in the egg value chains are a source of livelihood for urban families. A value chain mapping framework was used to describe types of inputs and outputs from chicken farms, challenges faced by producers and their disease control strategies. Commercial layer farms were defined as farms keeping exotic breeds of chicken, whereas indigenous chicken farms kept different cross breeds of indigenous chicken. Four focus group discussions were held with producers of these chickens in peri-urban area: Dagoretti, and one informal settlement: Kibera. Qualitative data were collected on interactions between farmers, sources of farm inputs and buyers of poultry products, simple ranking of production challenges, farmers' perception on diseases affecting chicken and strategies for management of sick chicken and waste products. Value chain profiles were drawn showing sources of inputs and channels for distribution of chicken products. Production challenges and chicken disease management strategies were presented as qualitative summaries. Commercial layer farms in Dagoretti kept an average of 250 chickens (range 50–500); while flock sizes in Kibera were 12 chickens (range 5–20). Farms keeping indigenous chicken had an average of 23 chickens (range 8–40) in Dagoretti, and 10 chickens (range 5–16) in Kibera. Commercial layer farms in Dagoretti obtained chicks from distributors of commercial hatcheries, but farms in Kibera obtained chicks from hawkers who in turn sourced them from distributors of commercial hatcheries. Indigenous chicken farms from Dagoretti relied on natural hatching of fertilised eggs, but indigenous chicken farms in Kibera obtained chicks from their social connection with communities living in rural areas. Outlets for eggs from commercial layer farms included local shops, brokers, restaurants and hawkers, while eggs from indigenous chicken farms were sold to neighbours and restaurants. Sieved chicken manure from Dagoretti area was fed to dairy cattle; whereas non-sieved manure was used as fertilizer on crops. Production challenges included poor feed quality, lack of space for expansion, insecurity, occurrence of diseases and lack of sources of information on chicken management. In Kibera, sick and dead chickens were slaughtered and consumed by households; this practice was not reported in Dagoretti. The chicken layer systems contribute to food security of urban households, yet they have vulnerabilities and deficiencies with regard to disease management and food safety that need to be addressed with support on research and extension

Analysis by x-ray microtomography of a granular packing undergoing compaction

Several acquisitions of X-ray microtomography have been performed on a beads packing while it compacts under vertical vibrations. An image analysis allows to study the evolution of the packing structure during its progressive densification. In particular, the volume distribution of the pores reveals a large tail, compatible to an exponential law, which slowly reduces as the system gets more compact. This is quite consistent, for large pores, with the free volume theory. These results are also in very good agreement with those obtained by a previous numerical model of granular compaction.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Latex (revtex4). to be published in Phys. Rev.

Trauma-focused cognitive behaviour therapy versus treatment as usual for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in young children aged 3 to 8 years: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Following horrific or life-threatening events approximately 10 to 15% of young children develop post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The symptoms of this disorder are distressing - nightmares, flashbacks, anger outbursts and disturbed play. These symptoms cause major disruption to a child's functioning and, if left untreated, can persist for many years. As yet, there are no established empirically-validated treatments for PTSD in young children. Trauma-focused cognitive behaviour therapy (TF-CBT) is a psychological intervention that is effective in treating the disorder in older children (8 to 12 years), adolescents and adults. This study examines TF-CBT adapted for children aged between 3 and 8 years. METHODS/DESIGN: This protocol describes a two-arm exploratory randomised controlled trial comparing TF-CBT to treatment as usual (TAU) in children aged 3 to 8 years with a principal diagnosis of PTSD following a single-event discrete trauma. Using a half-crossover design, 44 participants will be randomly allocated to receive the intervention or to receive TAU. Those allocated to TAU will be offered TF-CBT at the end of the 'treatment' period (approximately 12 weeks) if still indicated. The primary outcome is PTSD diagnosis according to DSM-5 criteria for children 6 years and younger at post-treatment. Secondary outcomes include effects on co-morbid diagnoses and changes in emotion and trauma symptoms at each of the follow-up points (post-treatment, 3-months, 12-months). Additionally, broader efficacy will be considered with regard to treatment feasibility, acceptability and service utilisation. The key targets of the intervention are trauma memory, the interpretation of the meaning of the event, and the management of symptoms. DISCUSSION: This is the first European trial to examine the efficacy of TF-CBT in alleviating PTSD in very young children. As well as providing much-needed data on the utility of the intervention, this exploratory trial will also allow us to gather important information about the feasibility of delivering the treatment in UK National Health Service (NHS) settings, and its acceptability to the children and their families. This study will highlight aspects of the intervention that need improvement or modification in preparation for a full-scale evaluation in a larger sample. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN35018680 , registered on 18 November 2013

Widespread sampling biases in herbaria revealed from large-scale digitization

SUMMARY 1. Non-random collecting practices may bias conclusions drawn from analyses of herbarium records. Recent efforts to fully digitize and mobilize regional floras online offer a timely opportunity to assess commonalities and differences in herbarium sampling biases. 2. We determined spatial, temporal, trait, phylogenetic, and collector biases in ~5 million herbarium records, representing three of the most complete digitized floras of the world: Australia (AU), South Africa (SA), and New England, USA (NE). 3. We identified numerous shared and unique biases among these regions. Shared biases included specimens i) collected close to roads and herbaria; ii) collected more frequently during biological spring and summer; iii) of threatened species collected less frequently; and iv) of close relatives collected in similar numbers. Regional differences included i) over-representation of graminoids in SA and AU and of annuals in AU; and ii) peak collection during the 1910s in NE, 1980s in SA, and 1990s in AU. Finally, in all regions, a disproportionately large percentage of specimens were collected by very few individuals. We hypothesize that these mega-collectors, and along with their associated preferences and idiosyncrasies, shaped patterns of collection bias via ‘founder effects’. 4. Studies using herbarium collections should account for sampling biases, and future collecting efforts should avoid compounding these biases to the extent possible.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog