Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current

The East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy‐permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time‐mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy‐permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies

Sequential boundaries approach in clinical trials with unequal allocation ratios

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials, both unequal randomization design and sequential analyses have ethical and economic advantages. In the single-stage-design (SSD), however, if the sample size is not adjusted based on unequal randomization, the power of the trial will decrease, whereas with sequential analysis the power will always remain constant. Our aim was to compare sequential boundaries approach with the SSD when the allocation ratio (R) was not equal. METHODS: We evaluated the influence of R, the ratio of the patients in experimental group to the standard group, on the statistical properties of two-sided tests, including the two-sided single triangular test (TT), double triangular test (DTT) and SSD by multiple simulations. The average sample size numbers (ASNs) and power (1-β) were evaluated for all tests. RESULTS: Our simulation study showed that choosing R = 2 instead of R = 1 increases the sample size of SSD by 12% and the ASN of the TT and DTT by the same proportion. Moreover, when R = 2, compared to the adjusted SSD, using the TT or DTT allows to retrieve the well known reductions of ASN observed when R = 1, compared to SSD. In addition, when R = 2, compared to SSD, using the TT and DTT allows to obtain smaller reductions of ASN than when R = 1, but maintains the power of the test to its planned value. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that when the allocation ratio is not equal among the treatment groups, sequential analysis could indeed serve as a compromise between ethicists, economists and statisticians

The fate of the Deep Western Boundary Current in the South Atlantic

The pathways of recently ventilated North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) are part of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In the South Atlantic these pathways have been the subject of discussion for years, mostly due to the lack of observations. Knowledge of the pathways of the AMOC in the South Atlantic is a first order prerequisite for understanding the fluxes of climatically important properties. In this paper, historical and new observations, including hydrographic and oxygen sections, Argo data, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), are examined together with two different analyzes of the Ocean general circulation model For the Earth Simulator (OFES) to trace the pathway of the recently ventilated NADW through the South Atlantic. CLIVAR-era CFCs, oxygen and salinity clearly show that the strongest NADW pathway in the South Atlantic is along the western boundary (similar to the North Atlantic). In addition to the western boundary pathway, tracers show an eastward spreading of NADW between ~17 and 25°S. Analyzed together with the results of earlier studies, the observations and model output presented here indicate that after crossing the equator, the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) transports water with the characteristics of NADW and a total volume transport of approximately 14Sv (1Sv=106m3s-1). It crosses 5°S as a narrow western boundary current and becomes dominated by eddies further south. When this very energetic eddying flow reaches the Vitória-Trindade Ridge (~20°S), the flow follows two different pathways. The main portion of the NADW flow continues along the continental shelf of South America in the form of a strong reformed DWBC, while a smaller portion, about 22% of the initial transport, flows towards the interior of the basin

Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction

Occupying about 14% of the world\u27s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine-atmosphere-ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on southwest Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52-54°S). Our annually resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the 1940s, a phenomenon predating the observational record. Climate reanalysis and modelling show a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer. Our results suggest that modern observed high interannual variability was established across the mid-twentieth century, and that the influence of contemporary equatorial Pacific temperatures may now be a permanent feature across the mid- to high latitudes

Meaningful public engagement in the context of open science: reflections from early and mid-career academics

How is public engagement perceived to contribute to open science? This commentary highlights common reflections on this question from interviews with 12 public engagement fellows in Utrecht University’s Open Science Programme in the Netherlands. We identify four reasons why public engagement is an essential enabler of open science. Interaction between academics and society can: (1) better align science with the needs of society; (2) secure a relationship of trust between science and society; (3) increase the quality and impact of science; and (4) support the impact of open access and FAIR data practices (data which meet principles of findability, accessibility, interoperability and reusability). To be successful and sustainable, such public engagement requires support in skills training and a form of institutionalisation in a university-wide system, but, most of all, the fellows express the importance of a formal and informal recognition and rewards system. Our findings suggest that in order to make public engagement an integral part of open science, universities should invest in institutional support, create awareness, and stimulate dialogue among staff members on how to ‘do’ good public engagement

Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities

Some of the most important development goals for the countries and territories of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) involve the sustainable management of their fisheries in light of environmental, economic and social uncertainties. The responses of fish populations to variability in the marine environment have implications for decision making processes associated with resource management. There is still considerable uncertainty in estimating the responses of tuna populations to short-to-medium-term variability and longer-term change in the oceanic environment. A workshop was organised to examine how advances in oceanography, fisheries science and fisheries economics could be applied to the tuna fisheries of the WCPO and in doing so identify research priorities to improve understanding relevant to progressing management. Research priorities identified included: (i) improved parameterisation of end to end ecosystem model components, processes and feedbacks through expanded biological observations and incorporation of higher resolution climate models; (ii) development of seasonal and inter-annual forecasting tools enabling management responses to short-term variability in tuna distributions and abundances; (iii) improved understanding of the population dynamics of and the energy transfer efficiencies between food web components; (iv) assessment of the optimal value of access rights and overall fishery value under multiple scenarios of tuna distribution and abundance and influences on decision making by fisheries managers and fleets and (v) development of management strategy evaluation frameworks for utilisation in the implementing and testing of fishery management procedures and to help prioritise research directions and investment. Issues discussed and research priorities identified during the workshop have synergies with other internationally managed fisheries and therefore are applicable to many other fisheries

The physical oceanography of the transport of floating marine debris

Marine plastic debris floating on the ocean surface is a major environmental problem. However, its distribution in the ocean is poorly mapped, and most of the plastic waste estimated to have entered the ocean from land is unaccounted for. Better understanding of how plastic debris is transported from coastal and marine sources is crucial to quantify and close the global inventory of marine plastics, which in turn represents critical information for mitigation or policy strategies. At the same time, plastic is a unique tracer that provides an opportunity to learn more about the physics and dynamics of our ocean across multiple scales, from the Ekman convergence in basin-scale gyres to individual waves in the surfzone. In this review, we comprehensively discuss what is known about the different processes that govern the transport of floating marine plastic debris in both the open ocean and the coastal zones, based on the published literature and referring to insights from neighbouring fields such as oil spill dispersion, marine safety recovery, plankton connectivity, and others. We discuss how measurements of marine plastics (both in situ and in the laboratory), remote sensing, and numerical simulations can elucidate these processes and their interactions across spatio-temporal scales

The Blood of Healthy Individuals Exhibits CD8 T Cells with a Highly Altered TCR Vb Repertoire but with an Unmodified Phenotype

CD8 T cell clonal expansions (TCE) have been observed in elderly, healthy individuals as well in old mice, and have been associated with the ageing process. Both chronic latent and non-persistent viral infections have been proposed to drive the development of distinct non-functional and functional TCE respectively. Biases in TCR Vβ repertoire diversity are also recurrently observed in patients that have undergone strong immune challenge, and are preferentially observed in the CD8 compartment. Healthy adults can also exhibit CD8 T cells with strong alterations of their CDR3 length distribution. Surprisingly, no specific investigations have been conducted to analyze the CD8 T cell repertoire in normal adults, to determine if such alterations in TCR Vβ repertoire share the features of TCE. In this study, we characterized the phenotype and function of the CD8 population in healthy individuals of 25–52 years of age. All but one of the EBV-positive HLA-B8 healthy volunteers that were studied were CMV-negative. Using a specific unsupervised statistical method, we identified Vβ families with altered CDR3 length distribution and increased TCR Vβ/HPRT transcript ratios in all individuals tested. The increase in TCR Vβ/HPRT transcript ratio was more frequently associated with an increase in the percentage of the corresponding Vβ+ T cells than with an absence of modification of their percentage. However, in contrast with the previously described TCE, these CD8+ T cells were not preferentially found in the memory CD8 subset, they exhibited normal effector functions (cytokine secretion and cytotoxic molecule expression) and they were not reactive to a pool of EBV/CMV/Flu virus peptides. Taken together, the combined analysis of transcripts and proteins of the TCR Vβ repertoire led to the identification of different types of CD8+ T cell clone expansion or contraction in healthy individuals, a situation that appears more complex than previously described in aged individuals