Complete breeding failures in ivory gull following unusual rainy storms in North Greenland

Natural catastrophic events such as heavy rainfall and windstorms may induce drastic decreases in breeding success of animal populations. We report the impacts of summer rainfalls on the reproductive success of ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) in north-east Greenland. On two occasions, at Amdrup Land in July 2009 and at Station Nord in July 2011, we observed massive ivory gull breeding failures following violent rainfall and windstorms that hit the colonies. In each colony, all of the breeding birds abandoned their eggs or chicks during the storm. Juvenile mortality was close to 100% at Amdrup Land in 2009 and 100% at Station Nord in 2011. Our results show that strong winds associated with heavy rain directly affected the reproductive success of some Arctic bird species. Such extreme weather events may become more common with climate change and represent a new potential factor affecting ivory gull breeding success in the High Arctic

Multimodel Analysis of the Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at Quadrupled CO2

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordAntarctic sea ice cover is projected to significantly decrease by the end of the twenty-first century if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, with potential consequences for Southern Hemisphere weather and climate. Here we examine the atmospheric response to projected Antarctic sea ice loss at quadrupled CO2, inferred from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Our study is the first multimodel analysis of the atmospheric response to Antarctic sea ice loss. Projected sea ice loss enhances the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, which slightly damps the positive Southern Annular Mode response to increased CO2, particularly in spring. The negative Southern Annular Mode response largely reflects a weakening of the eddy-driven jet, and to a lesser extent, an equatorward shift of the jet. Sea ice loss induces near-surface warming over the high-latitude Southern Ocean, but warming does not penetrate over the Antarctic continent. In spring, we find multimodel evidence for a weakened polar stratospheric vortex in response to sea ice loss.NER

Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Sea Ice

Satellite sensors record a downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent for all months (Figure 2; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). This trend is particularly pronounced in the summer months (June to October) in which ice extent of the most recent five years (2018–2022) has consistently remained below the 1981−2010 inter-decile range. Over the satellite period of 1979 to 2022, the September ice extent has reduced, on average, by almost 79,000 km2 each year, or around 11.5% per decade when referenced to the long-term (19812010) mean September extent of 6.88 million km2 (OSI SAF, 2020). The various satellite products all agree that Arctic sea ice extent has considerably declined over the last 43 years. However, they all report slightly different values, for example the NSIDC sea ice index reports an average decline of approx. 79,100 km2 per year over the period 1979–2022, just over 12.3% per decade relative to their 1981–2010 mean of 6.41 million km2

Estimating sea-ice volume flux out of the Laptev Sea using multiple satellite observations

Sea-ice outflow from the Laptev Sea is of considerable importance in maintaining the Arctic Ocean sea-ice budget. In this study, a method exclusively using multiple satellite observations is used to calculate sea-ice volume flux across the eastern boundary (EB) and northern boundary (NB) of the Laptev Sea during the October–November and February–March or March–April periods (corresponding to the ICESat autumn and winter campaigns) between 2003 and 2008. Seasonally, the mean total ice volume flux (i.e., NB+EB) over the investigated autumn period (1.96 km3/day) is less than that over the winter period (2.57 km3/day). On the other hand, the large standard deviations of the total volume flux, 3.45 and 0.91 km3/day for the autumn and winter campaigns, indicate significant interannual fluctuations in the calculated quantities. A statistically significant (P>0.99) positive correlation, R=0.88 (or 0.81), is obtained between volume flux across the EB (or NB) and mean ice-drift speed over the boundary for the considered 11 ICESat campaigns. In addition, statistics show that a large fraction of the variability in volume flux across the NB over the 11 investigated campaigns, roughly 40%, is likely explained by ice thickness variability. On average, flux through the Laptev Sea amounts to approximately one-third of that across Fram Strait during the autumn and winter campaigns. These large contributions of sea ice from the Laptev Sea demonstrate its importance as an ice source, affecting the entire sea-ice mass balance in the Arctic Ocean