Cenários de mudanças climáticas na disponibilidade hídrica na bacia hidrográfica transfronteiriça da Laguna dos Patos

The decision-making processes involving water resources in Brazil and in neighboring countries have been based solely on analyses of the historical behavior of hydroclimatological variables. However, this may lead to inappropriate strategies in regards to the use of natural resources, since the impact of future climate change may significantly affect the availability of water resources. This study proposes an analysis of the variation in water availability of basins within the Patos Lagoon contribution area, which may be a consequence of climatic changes predicted by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, published in the most recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Two 30-year periods were simulated, from 2006 to 2035 and from 2051 to 2080, through the MGB-IPH hydrological model, considering two extreme greenhouse gas scenarios and twenty climate change models. A tendency of increase of the flows was verified in the simulated basin, since over 60% of the simulations indicated some percentage of average flow increase across all discretized modeling units. The analysis of the simulation results indicated that the data from climatic models HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 used as input in the hydrological model are the ones that respectively provide upper and lower flow thresholds for the ensembled simulations. A joint evaluation of the results generated by these two models, associated with the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, is capable of covering extreme flow scenarios making predictions considering climate change in the Patos Lagoon’s basin. Whereas the results provided by bcc-csm1, BNU-ESM and CNRM-CM5 are similar to the median of the ensemble of simulations generated by all models evaluated in this research. In addition, the northernmost region of the study area was identified as having the highest sensitivity to climate change, as projected by global models of CMIP5 published in AR5.Os processos de tomada de decisão que envolvem recursos hídricos no Brasil e países vizinhos vêm se baseando unicamente em análises do comportamento histórico de variáveis hidrológicas e climatológicas. Entretanto, isto pode levar a estratégias equivocadas relacionadas ao uso dos recursos naturais, pois o impacto das mudanças climáticas no comportamento das vazões futuras pode alterar consideravelmente a disponibilidade de recursos hídricos. Na presente pesquisa foi realizada uma análise da variação das disponibilidades hídricas de bacias hidrográficas contidas na área de contribuição à Laguna dos Patos, Rio Grande do Sul - Brasil, e Uruguai, que pode ser consequência das mudanças climáticas previstas por modelos globais do CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), publicados no mais recente relatório do IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). Dois períodos futuros de 30 anos foram simulados, de 2006 a 2035 e de 2051 a 2080, utilizando o modelo hidrológico MGB-IPH, considerando dois cenários extremos de emissões de gases de efeito estufa e vinte modelos climáticos. Foi possível verificar uma tendência de aumento das vazões na bacia hidrográfica simulada, pois mais de 60% das simulações realizadas indicou algum percentual de aumento de vazões médias em todas as unidades de discretização modeladas. A análise dos resultados das simulações indicou que os dados dos modelos climáticos HadGEM2-ES e GFDL-CM3 utilizados como dados de entrada no modelo hidrológico são os que fornecem, respectivamente, limiares superiores e inferiores de vazão do conjunto de resultado simulados. A avaliação conjunta dos resultados gerados por estes dois modelos, associados ao cenário de altas emissões de gases de efeito estufa, é capaz de gerar cenários extremos de vazões que são projetados para o futuro considerando as mudanças climáticas na bacia hidrográfica da Laguna dos Patos. Já os resultados fornecidos pelos modelos bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM e CNRM-CM5 são similares à mediana do conjunto das simulações geradas por todos os modelos avaliados nesta pesquisa. Além disso, a região mais ao norte da área de estudo foi identificada como as que apresenta maior sensibilidade às mudanças climáticas projetadas pelos modelos globais do CMIP5

Neutral Evolution of Mutational Robustness

We introduce and analyze a general model of a population evolving over a network of selectively neutral genotypes. We show that the population's limit distribution on the neutral network is solely determined by the network topology and given by the principal eigenvector of the network's adjacency matrix. Moreover, the average number of neutral mutant neighbors per individual is given by the matrix spectral radius. This quantifies the extent to which populations evolve mutational robustness: the insensitivity of the phenotype to mutations. Since the average neutrality is independent of evolutionary parameters---such as, mutation rate, population size, and selective advantage---one can infer global statistics of neutral network topology using simple population data available from {\it in vitro} or {\it in vivo} evolution. Populations evolving on neutral networks of RNA secondary structures show excellent agreement with our theoretical predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Copious Amounts of Dust and Gas in a z=7.5 Quasar Host Galaxy

We present IRAM/NOEMA and JVLA observations of the quasar J1342+0928 at z=7.54 and report detections of copious amounts of dust and [CII] emission in the interstellar medium (ISM) of its host galaxy. At this redshift, the age of the universe is 690 Myr, about 10% younger than the redshift of the previous quasar record holder. Yet, the ISM of this new quasar host galaxy is significantly enriched by metals, as evidenced by the detection of the [CII] 158micron cooling line and the underlying far-infrared (FIR) dust continuum emission. To the first order, the FIR properties of this quasar host are similar to those found at a slightly lower redshift (z~6), making this source by far the FIR-brightest galaxy known at z>7.5. The [CII] emission is spatially unresolved, with an upper limit on the diameter of 7 kpc. Together with the measured FWHM of the [CII] line, this yields a dynamical mass of the host of <1.5x10^11 M_sun. Using standard assumptions about the dust temperature and emissivity, the NOEMA measurements give a dust mass of (0.6-4.3)x10^8 M_sun. The brightness of the [CII] luminosity, together with the high dust mass, imply active ongoing star formation in the quasar host. Using [CII]-SFR scaling relations, we derive star formation rates of 85-545 M_sun/yr in the host, consistent with the values derived from the dust continuum. Indeed, an episode of such past high star formation is needed to explain the presence of ~10^8 M_sun of dust implied by the observations.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Published in ApJ Letter

Early Neoproterozoic limestones from the Gwna Group, Anglesey

Limestone megaclasts up to hundreds of metres in size are present within the Gwna Group mélange, North Wales, UK. The mélange has been interpreted as part of a Peri-Gondwanan fore-arc accretionary complex although the age of deposition remains contentious, proposals ranging from Neoproterozoic to Early Ordovician. This paper uses strontium isotope chemostratigraphy to establish the age of the limestone blocks and thus provide a maximum age constraint on mélange formation. Results show that, although the carbonates are locally dolomitized, primary 87Sr/86Sr ratios can be identified and indicate deposition sometime between the late Tonian and earliest Cryogenian. This age is older than that suggested by stromatolites within the limestone and indicates that the limestone did not form as cap carbonate deposits

Scaling Relations between Gas and Star Formation in Nearby Galaxies

High resolution, multi-wavelength maps of a sizeable set of nearby galaxies have made it possible to study how the surface densities of HI, H2 and star formation rate (Sigma_HI, Sigma_H2, Sigma_SFR) relate on scales of a few hundred parsecs. At these scales, individual galaxy disks are comfortably resolved, making it possible to assess gas-SFR relations with respect to environment within galaxies. Sigma_H2, traced by CO intensity, shows a strong correlation with Sigma_SFR and the ratio between these two quantities, the molecular gas depletion time, appears to be constant at about 2Gyr in large spiral galaxies. Within the star-forming disks of galaxies, Sigma_SFR shows almost no correlation with Sigma_HI. In the outer parts of galaxies, however, Sigma_SFR does scale with Sigma_HI, though with large scatter. Combining data from these different environments yields a distribution with multiple regimes in Sigma_gas - Sigma_SFR space. If the underlying assumptions to convert observables to physical quantities are matched, even combined datasets based on different SFR tracers, methodologies and spatial scales occupy a well define locus in Sigma_gas - Sigma_SFR space.Comment: 8 pages; to appear in "IAU Symposium 270 - Computational Star Formation" (Eds. Alves, Elmegreen, Girart, Trimble