an ensemble simulation approach based on glacial climate

Eine der entscheidenden Hauptquellen für Unsicherheiten von Klimaprojektionen ist, wie sensitiv das Klimasystem auf Änderungen der Strahlungsbilanz der Erde reagiert. Angesichts des kontinuierlichen Anstiegs der atmosphärischen Treibhausgaskonzentrationen ist die Einschränkung des Unsicherheitsbereichs dieser Sensitivität von entscheidender Bedeutung. Ein häufig verwendetes Maß zur Beschreibung dieser charakteristischen Kenngröße von Klimamodellen ist die sogenannte Klimasensitivität, definiert als die Gleichgewichtsänderung der simulierten globalen Mitteltemperatur, welche sich aus einer Verdoppelung des atmosphärischen CO2-Gehalts ergibt...thesi

The impact of lateral heat and water fluxes from thermokarst lakes on tundra landscape dynamics and permafrost degradation

Projected future warming of the Arctic will result in pronounced degradation of permafrost and thereby trigger large-scale landscape and ecosystem changes. In this context, the formation and expansion of thermokarst lakes play a key role as thermokarst dynamics represent a mechanism for abrupt degradation of permafrost soils. Using the process-based model CryoGrid-3 coupled to a model description of lake dynamics (FLake), we explore how the thermal and hydrological state of different permafrost landscapes is affected by an explicit consideration of the interaction between lakes and surrounding permafrost environments. Hereby we especially investigate the role of lateral fluxes in affecting the landscape heat and water budgets

First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System

Due to an imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere, excess heat has accumulated in Earth's climate system in recent decades, driving global warming and climatic changes. To date, it has not been quantified how much of this excess heat is used to melt ground ice in permafrost. Here, we diagnose changes in sensible and latent ground heat contents in the northern terrestrial permafrost region from ensemble-simulations of a tailored land surface model. We find that between 1980 and 2018, about 3.9^+1.4_-1.6 ZJ of heat, of which 1.7_-1.4^+1.3 ZJ (44%) were used to melt ground ice, were absorbed by permafrost. Our estimate, which does not yet account for the potentially increased heat uptake due to thermokarst processes in ice-rich terrain, suggests that permafrost is a persistent heat sink comparable in magnitude to other components of the cryosphere and must be explicitly considered when assessing Earth's energy imbalance.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe

Deglacial permafrost carbon dynamics in MPI-ESM

We have developed a new module to calculate soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation in perennially frozen ground in the land surface model JSBACH. Running this offline version of MPI-ESM we have modelled permafrost carbon accumulation and release from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Pre-industrial (PI). Our simulated near-surface PI permafrost extent of 16.9Miokm2 is close to observational evidence. Glacial boundary conditions, especially ice sheet coverage, result in profoundly different spatial patterns of glacial permafrost extent. Deglacial warming leads to large-scale changes in soil temperatures, manifested in permafrost disappearance in southerly regions, and permafrost aggregation in formerly glaciated grid cells. In contrast to the large spatial shift in simulated permafrost occurrence, we infer an only moderate increase of total LGM permafrost area (18.3Miokm2) – together with pronounced changes in the depth of seasonal thaw. Reconstructions suggest a larger spread of glacial permafrost towards more southerly regions, but with a highly uncertain extent of non-continuous permafrost. Compared to a control simulation without describing the transport of SOC into perennially frozen ground, the implementation of our newly developed module for simulating permafrost SOC accumulation leads to a doubling of simulated LGM permafrost SOC storage (amounting to a total of ~150PgC). Despite LGM temperatures favouring a larger permafrost extent, simulated cold glacial temperatures – together with low precipitation and low CO2 levels – limit vegetation productivity and therefore prevent a larger glacial SOC build-up in our model. Changes in physical and biogeochemical boundary conditions during deglacial warming lead to an increase in mineral SOC storage towards the Holocene (168PgC at PI), which is below observational estimates (575PgC in continuous and discontinuous permafrost). Additional model experiments clarified the sensitivity of simulated SOC storage to model parameters, affecting long-term soil carbon respiration rates and simulated active layer depths. Rather than a steady increase in carbon release from the LGM to PI as a consequence of deglacial permafrost degradation, our results suggest alternating phases of soil carbon accumulation and loss as an effect of dynamic changes in permafrost extent, active layer depths, soil litter input, and heterotrophic respiration

Long-term deglacial permafrost carbon dynamics in MPI-ESM

We have developed a new module to calculate soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation in perennially frozen ground in the land surface model JSBACH. Running this offline version of MPI-ESM we have modelled long-term permafrost carbon accumulation and release from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the pre-industrial (PI) age. Our simulated near-surface PI permafrost extent of 16.9 × 106 km2 is close to observational estimates. Glacial boundary conditions, especially ice sheet coverage, result in profoundly different spatial patterns of glacial permafrost extent. Deglacial warming leads to large-scale changes in soil temperatures, manifested in permafrost disappearance in southerly regions, and permafrost aggregation in formerly glaciated grid cells. In contrast to the large spatial shift in simulated permafrost occurrence, we infer an only moderate increase in total LGM permafrost area (18.3 × 106 km2) – together with pronounced changes in the depth of seasonal thaw. Earlier empirical reconstructions suggest a larger spread of permafrost towards more southerly regions under glacial conditions, but with a highly uncertain extent of non-continuous permafrost. Compared to a control simulation without describing the transport of SOC into perennially frozen ground, the implementation of our newly developed module for simulating permafrost SOC accumulation leads to a doubling of simulated LGM permafrost SOC storage (amounting to a total of ∼ 150 PgC). Despite LGM temperatures favouring a larger permafrost extent, simulated cold glacial temperatures – together with low precipitation and low CO2 levels – limit vegetation productivity and therefore prevent a larger glacial SOC build-up in our model. Changes in physical and biogeochemical boundary conditions during deglacial warming lead to an increase in mineral SOC storage towards the Holocene (168 PgC at PI), which is below observational estimates (575 PgC in continuous and discontinuous permafrost). Additional model experiments clarified the sensitivity of simulated SOC storage to model parameters, affecting long-term soil carbon respiration rates and simulated ALDs. Rather than a steady increase in carbon release from the LGM to PI as a consequence of deglacial permafrost degradation, our results suggest alternating phases of soil carbon accumulation and loss as an effect of dynamic changes in permafrost extent, ALDs, soil litter input, and heterotrophic respiration

Permafrost im Wandel – Regionaler Fokus, globale Bedeutung

Erwärmung und starke hydrologische Veränderungen auf der Landoberfläche führen zu weitläufigem Permafrosttauen. Von Ostsibirien bis Nord-Alaska trifft dies vor allem auf das Gebiet des kohlenstoff- und eisreichen Yedoma-Perma-frosts zu. Hier entstanden und entstehen so Millionen von sogenannten Thermokarst-Seen, die das Tauen weiter verstärken und zur Mobilisierung von einst gefrorenem Kohlenstoff beitragen

Modeling Permafrost Sensitivity in Arctic Forest

Deciduous larch is a weak competitor when growing in mixed stands with evergreen taxa but is dominant in many boreal forest areas of Eastern Siberia. However, it is hypothesized that certain factors such as a shallow active layer thickness and high fire frequency favor larch dominance. Our aim is to understand how thermohydrological interactions between vegetation, permafrost, and atmosphere stabilize the larch forests and the underlying permafrost in Eastern Siberia. A tailored version of a one-dimensional land surface model (CryoGrid) is adapted for the application in vegetated areas and used to reproduce the energy transfer and thermal regime of permafrost ground in typical boreal larch stands. In order to simulate the responds of Arctic trees to local climate and permafrost conditions we have implemented a multilayer canopy parameterization originally developed for the Community Land Model (CLM-ml_v0). The coupled model is capable of calculating the full energy balance above, within and below the canopy including the radiation budget, the turbulent fluxes and the heat budget of the permafrost ground under several forcing scenarios. We will present first results of simulations performed for different study sites in larch-dominated forests of Eastern Siberia and Mongolia under current and future climate conditions. Model performance is thoroughly evaluated based on comprehensive in-situ soil temperature and radiation measurements at our study sites