Evolution of supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf in the decades before it collapsed

The Larsen B ice shelf collapsed in 2002 losing an area twice the size of Greater London to the sea (3,000 km 2), in an event associated with widespread supraglacial lake drainage. Here we use optical and radar satellite imagery to investigate the evolution of the ice shelf's lakes in the decades preceding collapse. We find (1) that lakes spread southward in the preceding decades at a rate commensurate with meltwater saturation of the shelf surface; (2) no trend in lake size, suggesting an active supraglacial drainage network which evacuated excess water off the shelf; and (3) lakes mostly refreeze in winter but the few lakes that do drain are associated with ice breakup 2–4 years later. Given the relative scale of lake drainage and shelf breakup, however, it is not clear from our data whether lake drainage is more likely a cause, or an effect, of ice shelf collapse

Influence of Persistent Wind Scour on the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica

Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (< or = 200 sq km) with reduced surface accumulation. Estimates of Antarctic surface mass balance rely on sparse point measurements or coarse atmospheric models that do not capture these local processes, and overestimate the net mass input in wind-scour zones. Here we combine airborne radar observations of unconformable stratigraphic layers with lidar-derived surface roughness measurements to identify extensive wind-scour zones over Dome A, in the interior of East Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that approx. 2.7-6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11-36.5 Gt /yr in present surface-mass-balance calculations

Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

We present a new 150-year, high-resolution, stable isotope record (delta O-18) from the Gomez ice core, drilled on the data sparse south western Antarctic Peninsula, revealing a similar to 2.7 degrees C rise in surface temperatures since the 1950s. The record is highly correlated with satellite-derived temperature reconstructions and instrumental records from Faraday station on the north west coast, thus making it a robust proxy for local and regional temperatures since the 1850s. We conclude that the exceptional 50-year warming, previously only observed in the northern Peninsula, is not just a local phenomena but part of a statistically significant 100-year regional warming trend that began around 1900. A suite of coupled climate models are employed to demonstrate that the 50 and 100 year temperature trends are outside of the expected range of variability from pre-industrial control runs, indicating that the warming is likely the result of external climate forcing. Citation: Thomas, E. R., P. F. Dennis, T. J. Bracegirdle, and C. Franzke (2009), Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20704, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040104

The spatial distribution and temporal variability of föhn winds over the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica

The eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) mountain range and the adjacent ice shelves are frequently affected by föhn winds originating from upwind of the mountains. Six automatic weather stations (AWS) and archived model output from 5km resolution Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) forecasts have been combined to identify the occurrence of föhn conditions, and their spatial distribution over the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) from 2009 to 2012. Algorithms for semi‐automatic detection of föhn conditions have been developed for both AWS and AMPS data. The frequency of föhn varies by location, being most frequent at the foot of the AP and in the north of the ice shelf. They are most common in spring, when they can prevail for 50% of the time. The results of this study have important implications for further research, investigating the impact of föhn on surface melting, and the surface energy budget of the ice shelf. This is of particular interest due to the collapse of Larsen A and B ice shelves in 1995 and 2002 respectively, and the potential instability issues following a large calving event on Larsen C in 2017

Breaking the ice: Identifying hydraulically-forced crevassing

Hydraulically‐forced crevassing is thought to reduce the stability of ice shelves and ice sheets, affecting structural integrity and providing pathways for surface meltwater to the bed. It can cause ice shelves to collapse and ice sheets to accelerate into the ocean. However, direct observations of the hydraulically‐forced crevassing process remain elusive. Here we report a novel method and observations that use icequakes to directly observe crevassing and determine the role of hydrofracture. Crevasse icequake depths from seismic observations are compared to a theoretically derived maximum‐dry‐crevasse‐depth. We observe icequakes below this depth, suggesting hydrofracture. Furthermore, icequake source mechanisms provide insight into the fracture process, with predominantly opening cracks observed, which have opening volumes of hundredths of a cubic meter. Our method and findings provide a framework for studying a critical process that is key for the stability of ice shelves and ice sheets, and therefore future sea‐level rise projections