Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

Microcapsule a doppio strato di polisaccaridiutilizzabili come veicoli per la somministrazione oraledi sostanze biologicamente attive

The present invention relates to microcapsules with a double-layer of natural polysaccharides - chitosan and alginate - gelified and stabilized by means of a divalent ion containing inside at least one biologically active substance. The microcapsules of the invention can be employed as carriers for the oral administration of biologically active substances, also associated with an adjuvant of the biological response of the same, administered for a preventive or therapeutic purpose. These substances can be chosen, for example, from antigens and adjuvants, suitable for immune response stimulation against infective and non-infective agents, or from chemotherapeutics and adjuvants with therapeutic type effects. According to the type of biologically active substance encapsulated in the microcapsules, there can be a variety of uses for oral vaccination or therapy in the human and veterinary field

Lysozyme-containing chitosan-coated arginate microspheres for oral immunisation

A set of ten different chitosan-coated alginate microspheres (MS1-10), containing hen-egg white lysozyme (LZ) as immunostimulant, was developed for the oral delivery of antigens. MS10, the formulation chosen for in vivo studies, charged with heat-inactivated Vibrio anguillarum (VA), presents mean dry and swollen diameter, zetapotential value, LZ and VA encapsulation efficiency of 2.7 ± 1.1 pm, 3.2 ± 1.2 pm, 2.1 ± 0.6 mV, 45.5% and 65.0%, respectively. The immunomodulating properties of the system were preliminarily tested on CBA mice model. A 6 consecutive-day oral immunization with microencapsulated VA induces a significant humoral immune response. The presence of LZ in the system contributes to increase the immune response against co-encapsulated VA vs. VA loaded MSs (IgM and IgG) or non encapsulated VA (IgM). The microencapsulation seems to improve the VA uptake by Peyer's patches (PP) vs. free particulate. These results provide useful insights into the suitability of this system for oral immunization with microencapsulated antigens

Tecnologia e bullismo. Nuovi orizzonti educativi

Il fenomeno sociale del cyber bullismo rappresenta uno dei principali problemi e piaghe sociali. In questo modo tale problematica deve essere scrutata con consapevolezza e profesionalità, tali da richiedere interventi educativi mirati e sempre più efficaci

Results From a Large, Multicenter, Retrospective Analysis On Radium223 Use in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) in the Triveneto Italian Region

Radium 223 was introduced for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer based on the results of a randomized controlled trial showing risk reduction for death and skeletal events. Our aim was to evaluate the outcome of patients receiving radium 223 in a real-world setting

Abnormal cortical neural synchronization mechanisms in quiet wakefulness are related to motor deficits, cognitive symptoms, and visual hallucinations in Parkinson's disease patients: an electroencephalographic study

Compared with Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD) shows peculiar clinical manifestations related to vigilance (i.e., executive cognitive deficits and visual hallucinations) that may be reflected in resting-state electroencephalographic rhythms. To test this hypothesis, clinical and resting-state electroencephalographic rhythms in age-, sex-, and education-matched PD patients (N = 136) and Alzheimer's disease patients (AD, N = 85), and healthy older participants (Nold, N = 65), were available from an international archive. Electroencephalographic sources were estimated by eLORETA software. The results are as follows: (1) compared to the Nold participants, the AD and PD patients showed higher widespread delta source activities (PD > AD) and lower posterior alpha source activities (AD > PD); (2) the PD patients with the most pronounced motor deficits exhibited very low alpha source activities in widespread cortical regions; (3) the PD patients with the strongest cognitive deficits showed higher alpha source activities in widespread cortical regions; and (4) compared to the PD patients without visual hallucinations, those with visual hallucinations were characterized by higher posterior alpha sources activities. These results suggest that in PD patients resting in quiet wakefulness, abnormalities in cortical neural synchronization at alpha frequencies are differently related to cognitive, motor, and visual hallucinations. Interestingly, parallel PD neuropathological processes may have opposite effects on cortical neural synchronization mechanisms generating cortical alpha rhythms in quiet wakefulness

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks