Agenda chasing and contests among news providers

This article studies competition in contests with a focus on the news industry that is increasingly influenced by social media. The model assumes publishers to pick a single topic from a large pool based on the topics' prior “success” probabilities, thereby “chasing” potentially successful topics. Firms that publish topics that become successful divide a “reward” which can change with the number of competing firms and the number of successful topics. The results show that share structures can be categorized into three types that, in turn, lead to qualitatively different outcomes for the contest

Predicting mobile advertising response using consumer colocation networks

Building on results from economics and consumer behavior, the authors theorize that consumers' movement patterns are informative of their product preferences, and this study proposes that marketers monetize this information using dynamic networks that capture colocation events (when consumers appear at the same place at approximately the same time). To support this theory, the authors study mobile advertising response in a panel of 217 subscribers. The data set spans three months during which participants were sent mobile coupons from retailers in various product categories through a smartphone application. The data contain coupon conversions, demographic and psychographic information, and information on the hourly GPS location of participants and on their social ties in the form of referrals. The authors find a significant positive relationship between colocated consumers' response to coupons in the same product category. In addition, they show that incorporating consumers' location information can increase the accuracy of predicting the most likely conversions by 19%. These findings have important practical implications for marketers engaging in the fast-growing location-based mobile advertising industry

Modelling global diffusion.

This paper presents a general model of global diffusion processes. The approach recognizes 'breadth' and 'depth' of adoption by first considering the sequential introduction of the innovation across countries (breadth). Given the time of introduction into a specific country, within-country diffusion (depth) is subsequently modelled. We illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184countries. The proposed provides empirical insights which could not have been obtained using traditional techniques. In particular, we show that breadth and depth processes are not necessarily affected by the same socioeconomic factors. We also are able to evaluate the importance of the linkage between the two processes.

'Globalization': modelling technology adoption timing across countries.

Our paper proposes a general model of global adoption processes. In this case, the units of observation are countries which sequentially adopt a particular technology. We propose that the probability of a given country adopting a technology is a function of other 'similar' countries having adopted earlier (i.e. reflecting endogenous factors, or 'demonstration' effects), as well as a variety of country specific factors (exogenous covariates). We illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184 countries. The findings generally support extant theories of cross-country adoption, whether generated by academicians or managers. In particular, we find that planned economies lag in adopting technologies, and that homogenous countries with a high level of economic development and population concentration are, on average, earlier adopters. Support is also found for the demonstration effect of earlier adoptions: the baseline hazard increases over time, and adoptions by countries significantly increase the likelihood of 'similar' countries following their example.

Comparing adoption patterns: a global approach.

New product diffusion models are 'risky and potentially misleading' (Simon 1994, p. 14). This paper proposes a method which overcomes a number of problems associated with new product diffusion models noted in the marketing literature. We illustrate the methodology in the context of better understanding global variances in new product adoption. Building on existing diffusion models and sample matching principles from international consumer research, we suggest a 'staged estimation procedure'. The procedure provides both 'sensible' and robust estimates, and remains implementable even if the diffusion process is in its earliest stage in most or all countries. In an empirical illustration covering 184 countries on five continents, we use cellular diffusion data to gain insights on how exogenous/endogenous country characteristics affect country-level diffusion patterns.

Wheatering tight economic times: the sales evolution of consumer durables over the business cycle.

Despite its obvious importance, not much marketing research focuses on how business-cycle fluctuations affect individual companies and/or industries. Often, one only has aggregate information on the state of the national economy, even though cyclical contractions and expansions need not have an equal impact on every industry, nor on all firms in that industry. Using recent time-series developments, we introduce various measures to quantify the extent and nature of business-cycle fluctuations in sales. Specifically, we discuss the notions of cyclical volatility and cyclical comovement, and consider two types of cyclical asymmetry related, respectively, to the relative size of the peaks and troughs and the rate of change in upward versus downward parts of the cycle. In so doing, we examine how consumers adjust their purchasing behavior across different phases of the business cycle. We apply these concepts to a broad set (24) of consumer durables, for which we analyze the cyclical sensitivity in their sales evolution. In that way, we (i) derive a novel set of empirical generalizations, and (ii) test different marketing theory-based hypotheses on the underlying drivers of cyclical sensitivity. Consumer durables are found to be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the general economic activity, as expressed in an average cyclical volatility of more than four times the one in GNP, and an average comovement elasticity in excess of 2. This observation calls for an explicit consideration of cyclical variation in durable sales. Moreover, even though no evidence is found for depth asymmetry, the combined evidence across all durables suggests that asymmetry is present in the speed of up- and downward movements, as durables' sales falls much quicker during contractions than recover during economic expansions. Finally, key variables related to the industry's pricing activities, the nature of the durable (convenience vs. leisure), and the stage in a product's life cycle tend to moderate the extent of cyclical sensitivity in durable sales patterns.Business cycles; Companies; Consumer durables; Econometrics; Economy; Firms; Hypotheses; Industry; Information; Market; Marketing; Pricing; Product; Purchasing; Sales; Sales evolution; Sensitivity; Size; Time; Time-series econometrics; Time series; Variables; Volatility;

Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle

Despite its obvious importance, not much marketing research focuses on how business-cycle fluctuations affect individual companies and/or industries. Often, one only has aggregate information on the state of the national economy, even though cyclical contractions and expansions need not have an equal impact on every industry, nor on all firms in that industry. Using recent time-series developments, we introduce various measures to quantify the extent and nature of business-cycle fluctuations in sales. Specifically, we discuss the notions of cyclical volatility and cyclical comovement, and consider two types of cyclical asymmetry related, respectively, to the relative size of the peaks and troughs and the rate of change in upward versus downward parts of the cycle. In so doing, we examine how consumers adjust their purchasing behavior across different phases of the business cycle. We apply these concepts to a broad set (24) of consumer durables, for which we analyze the cyclical sensitivity in their sales evolution. In that way, we (i) derive a novel set of empirical generalizations, and (ii) test different marketing theory-based hypotheses on the underlying drivers of cyclical sensitivity. Consumer durables are found to be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the general economic activity, as expressed in an average cyclical volatility of more than four times the one in GNP, and an average comovement elasticity in excess of 2. This observation calls for an explicit consideration of cyclical variation in durable sales. Moreover, even though no evidence is found for depth asymmetry, the combined evidence across all durables suggests that asymmetry is present in the speed of up- and downward movements, as durable sales fall much quicker during contractions than they recover during economic expansions. Finally, key variables related to the industry's pricing activities, the nature of the durable (convenience vs. leisure), and the stage in a product's life cycle tend to moderate the extent of cyclical sensitivity in durable sales patterns

Diffusion of Subsidized ACTs in Accredited Drug Shops in Tanzania: Determinants of Stocking and Characteristics of Early and Late Adopters.

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers

Motion Rail: A Virtual Reality Level Crossing Training Application

This paper presents the development and usability testing of a Virtual Reality (VR) based system named 'Motion Rail' for training children on railway crossing safety. The children are to use a VR head mounted device and a controller to navigate the VR environment to perform a level crossing task and they will receive instant feedback on pass or failure on a display in the VR environment. Five participants consisting of two male and three females were considered for the usability test. The outcomes of the test was promising, as the children were very engaging and will like to adopt this training approach in future safety training

Good practice in health care for migrants: views and experiences of care professionals in 16 European countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health services across Europe provide health care for migrant patients every day. However, little systematic research has explored the views and experiences of health care professionals in different European countries. The aim of this study was to assess the difficulties professionals experience in their service when providing such care and what they consider constitutes good practice to overcome these problems or limit their negative impact on the quality of care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Structured interviews with open questions and case vignettes were conducted with health care professionals working in areas with high proportion of migrant populations in 16 countries. In each country, professionals in nine primary care practices, three accident and emergency hospital departments, and three community mental health services (total sample = 240) were interviewed about their views and experiences in providing care for migrant patients, i.e. from first generation immigrant populations. Answers were analysed using thematic content analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eight types of problems and seven components of good practice were identified representing all statements in the interviews. The eight problems were: language barriers, difficulties in arranging care for migrants without health care coverage, social deprivation and traumatic experiences, lack of familiarity with the health care system, cultural differences, different understandings of illness and treatment, negative attitudes among staff and patients, and lack of access to medical history. The components of good practice to overcome these problems or limit their impact were: organisational flexibility with sufficient time and resources, good interpreting services, working with families and social services, cultural awareness of staff, educational programmes and information material for migrants, positive and stable relationships with staff, and clear guidelines on the care entitlements of different migrant groups. Problems and good care components were similar across the three types of services.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Health care professionals in different services experience similar difficulties when providing care to migrants. They also have relatively consistent views on what constitutes good practice. The degree to which these components already are part of routine practice varies. Implementing good practice requires sufficient resources and organisational flexibility, positive attitudes, training for staff and the provision of information.</p