RELATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 VIRUS IN MEDAN CITY BY SPATIAL AND NON-SPATIAL APPROACHES

The city of Medan is the city with the highest cases of COVID-19 virus among cities in North Sumatra. This study was conducted to analyze the relative risk level for the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Estimation of relative risk is a statistic in disease mapping that is used to determine the distribution of disease. Relative risk estimation can be estimated using a direct estimator model or Standardized Morbility ratio and a small area estimation model using Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) with the Poisson-Gamma model. The Poisson-Gamma model is one of the models in estimating small areas in the form of count data which is suitable for use in disease mapping cases. This study aims to find the relative risk value as the basis for mapping the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the city of Medan using the Standardized Morbility Ratio and Bayesian Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research. Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research

OPTIMASI PENJADWALAN PRODUKSI MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT DENGAN METODE GUPTA

Penjadwalan adalah proses mengendalikan, mengatur, dan memaksimalkan suatu pekerjaan serta beban kerja dalam proses produksi, yang bertujuan untuk meminimalkan waktu proses produksi. Penelitian ini berisi tentang penjadwalan produksi minyak kelapa sawit dengan menghitung waktu produksi setiap job, dengan mencari nilai makespan yang optimal di salah satu PT. Perkebunan Nusantara. Untuk megoptimalkan penjadwalan mesin digunakan metode GUPTA. Penelitian ini menghasilkan penjadwalan produksi pada mesin dengan urutan J2-J3-J5-J4. Dengan metode GUPTA nilai makespan (overtime) yang dihasilkan 920 menit sedangkan dari perusahaan nilai makespan (overtime) nya 840 menit

COMPARISON OF ARIMA AND WINTERS METHODS ON SALES FORCASTING OF FURNITURE COMPANIES AT UD PODOMORO ASAHAN

Economic growth in Indonesia affects the need for household furniture. With the increasing demand, consumers have to wait a long time for the requested furniture. This causes sales to not be optimal due to consumer disappointment which results in cancellation of requests. The purpose of this research is to determine the optimal development of sales and make a production schedule based on the forecasting results obtained. The data of this research are window sales at UD. Podomoro Asahan from July 2016 to July 2021. The data was processed using the ARIMA and Winters methods and then compared between the two methods.The results of the study used the ARIMA method, namely using the ARIMA model (0,1,1) with an error value of MPE -0.079772% and MAPE 16.592778%. The results of the study used the Winters method, namely using the smoothing constant α=0.546225; β=0.259846; γ=0.116178; with MPE error value -0.39785% and MAPE 39.78471%

Survival Analysis of Covid-19 Patients Based on Time of Recovery

Corona virus is a virus that can cause the respiratory tract to become infected, and this viral infection is called COVID-19. This virus spreads so fast that it has spread to several countries, including Indonesia. In Indonesia, COVID-19 was detected in early March, precisely on March 2, 2020. The uncertain increase in the number of COVID-19 patients will have an impact on society and the country. This condition is compounded by the high number of deaths due to the COVID-19 virus. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze survival based on the healing rate of COVID-19 patients, in order to obtain information about the time period and the factors that cause a person with COVID-19 to survive. The method used in the survival analysis is the Kaplan-Meier test as a counter to the estimated recovery time of COVID-19 patients and the Log-Rank test to test for differences in the survival function of the recovery time of COVID-19 patients in the two groups. Kaplan-Meier and Log-Rank tests are part of the non-parametric method which is a statistical test that does not require any assumptions about the distribution of population data. The data used is data on COVID-19 patients at the Malahayati Hospital from January to May 31, 2021. The conclusion obtained is the survival function curve / length of time on the recovery rate of COVID-19 patients based on gender, age, and positive and suspected COVID-19 patients. with and without comorbidities. However, based on the Log-Rank test with = 0.05, it was concluded that there was no significant difference in the length of time for recovery of COVID-19 patients based on gender, age and positive patients and patients with suspected COVID-19 with comorbid and without comorbidities.Corona virus adalah virus yang dapat membuat saluran pernapasan mengalami infeksi, dan infeksi virus ini disebut dengan COVID-19. Virus ini menyebar dengan sangat cepat hingga telah menyebar ke beberapa negara, termasuk Indonesia. Di Indonesia, COVID-19 terdeteksi pada awal bulan Maret tepatnya pada 2 Maret 2020. Kota Medan memiliki jumlah terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 terbanyak di Sumatera Utara yaitu 18.522 orang. Selain jumlah terkonfirmasi positif, di kota Medan juga tercatat angka kematian sebanyak 631 pasien dan menjadi kota dengan jumlah meninggal terbanyak di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Kota Medan mencatat pasien yang sembuh dari COVID-19 adalah sebanyak 16.596 pasien. Peningkatan jumlah pasien COVID-19 yang tidak menentu akan berdampak bagi masyarakat dan Negara. Hingga peneliti melakukan penelitian dengan maksud untuk mencari fungsi survival/lama waktu pada laju kesembuhan pasien COVID-19 di salah satu rumah sakit kota Medan yaitu RSI Malahayati Medan. Tingginya angka kematian dikarenakan virus COVID-19 ini sangat berbahaya bagi masyarakat. Untuk itu dilakukan analisis survival pada waktu laju kesembuhan pasien COVID-19 di RSI Malahayati dengan uji Kaplan-Meier sebagai penghitung estimasi waktu sembuh pasien COVID-19 dan uji Log-Rank untuk menguji adanya perbedaan pada fungsi survival waktu sembuh pasien COVID-19 pada dua kelompok. Data yang digunakan adalah data pasien COVID-19 di RSI Malahayati sejak Januari sampai 31 Mei 2021. Kesimpulan yang diperoleh adalah kurva fungsi survival/lama waktu pada laju kesembuhan pasien COVID-19 berdasarkan jenis kelamin, usia, dan pasien positif serta suspect COVID-19 dengan komorbid dan tanpa komorbid. Namun berdasarkan uji Log-Rank dengan α=0.05, disimpulkan tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan pada lama waktu sembuh pasien COVID-19 berdasarkan jenis kelamin, usia dan pasien positif serta pasien suspect COVID-19 dengan komorbid dan tanpa komorbid

Modeling the proportion of measles cases using sparse least trimmed squares

Measles is a highly contagious disease and a health problem in several countries, including Indonesia. In 2022, Indonesia will experience an extraordinary situation (KLB) of measles cases, with the number of measles cases reaching 3,341 across 223 districts/cities. This data shows an increase of 32 times compared to 2021. North Sumatra is one of the provinces included in the list of regions and outbreak status, with 127 measles cases recorded in 2022. This study aims to find the factors that influence the number of measles cases in North Sumatra: one dependent variable, 34 independent variables, and 33 observations made up the study's variables. The data model chosen contains information on the percentage of measles cases linked to health, economic, human resource, and environmental variables. In addition, this study employs high-dimensional (data with many explanatory factors) data and includes outliers. Data with a large number of explanatory factors and outliers can be handled with LTS sparse analysis. The 34 independent variables were successfully chosen and reduced to 14 using the LTS sparse model. In addition, based on the  and RMSE values ​​for model evaluation, sparse LTS shows satisfactory results compared with classical LASSO, with  and RMSE values ​​for sparse LTS being 93.75% and 0.2933, respectively. Then, the  and RMSE values ​​for LASSO are -62.4% and 2.1734. The government can use these elements to guide lowering the number of measles cases in North Sumatra

Sistem Validasi Keaslian Dokumen Digital Berbasis QR-Code

Abstract – The prolonged Covid-19 pandemic forces each individual to minimize physical contact with other individuals to reduce its spread. The impact created by this restriction is the paralysis of all operational activities from all fields, especially education. All learning activities and academic services cannot be done face to face. To maintain their existence and total paralysis, all institutions have begun to switch their operational systems from offline to online. In tertiary institutions, especially at the State Islamic University of North Sumatra, Medan, learning is transferred using e-learning. However, the academic service system is done manually via chat and email applications. The use of chat and email communication applications in carrying out academic service operations is deemed quite helpful. The obstacle experienced by using these applications is the validation of documents sent by students to the academic or study program. The potential for document forgery using these applications is considered very vulnerable. To minimize document falsification, a system was created that could issue a QR-Code and embedded it into a digital document, where the QR-Code could be verified to determine the validity of the digital document. QR-Code issuance is done using a web-based application using the Codeigniter framework. By using a QR-Code-based validation system, it is hoped that the potential for document forgery can be minimized.Keywords – QR-Code, Authenticity of digital documents, Codeigniter Abstrak­ – Pandemi Covid-19 yang berkepanjangan memaksa setiap individu untuk meminimalisir kontak fisik dengan individu lainnya untuk mengurangi penyebarannya. Dampak yang dimunculkan oleh pembatasan ini adalah lumpuhnya seluruh kegiatan operasional dari seluruh bidang, terutama Pendidikan. Seluruh kegiatan pembelajaran dan pelayanan akademik tidak dapat dilakukan dengan bertatap muka. Untuk menjaga eksistensi dan kelumpuhan total, seluruh lembaga mulai beralih sistem operasionalnya dari offline menjadi online. Pada Perguruan Tinggi khususnya di Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Medan, pembelajaran dialihkan dengan menggunakan elearning. Namun untuk sistem pelayanan akademis dilakukan secara manual melalui aplikasi chat dan email. Penggunaan aplikasi-aplikasi komunikasi chat dan email dalam melaksanakan operasional pelayanan akademik dirasa cukup membantu. Kendala yang dialami dengan menggunakan aplikasi-aplikasi tersebut adalah validasi keabsahan dokumen yang dikirimkan mahasiswa ke bagian akademik ataupun prodi. Potensi pemalsuan dokumen dengan menggunakan aplikasi-aplikasi tersebut, dirasa sangat rentan. Untuk meminimalisir pemalsuan dokumen, dibuatlah suatu sistem yang dapat menerbitkan QR-Code dan ditanamkan kedalam dokumen digital, dimana QR-Code tersebut dapat di verifikasi untuk mengetahui keabsahan dokumen digital tersebut. Penerbitan QR-Code dilakukan dengan menggunakan aplikasi berbasis web dengan menggunakn framework codeigniter. Dengan menggunakan sistem validasi berbasis QR-Code ini diharapkan potensi-potensi pemalsuan dokumen dapat diminimalisir.Kata kunci – QR-Code, Keaslian Dokumen Digital, Codeignite

IMPLEMENTATION OF PAGERANK ALGORITHM IN MATLAB

Implementation of the PageRank algorithm to rank web generally only contain static and dynamic pages, with the rapid url users then needed an algorithm for calculating web rankings. In determining the ranking of a web, links incoming and outgoing links are also random surfer model is one decisive factor in determining the ranking of a web. Implementation of PageRank on MATLAB formed on a program in the m-file

RELATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 VIRUS IN MEDAN CITY BY SPATIAL AND NON-SPATIAL APPROACHES

The city of Medan is the city with the highest cases of COVID-19 virus among cities in North Sumatra. This study was conducted to analyze the relative risk level for the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Estimation of relative risk is a statistic in disease mapping that is used to determine the distribution of disease. Relative risk estimation can be estimated using a direct estimator model or Standardized Morbility ratio and a small area estimation model using Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) with the Poisson-Gamma model. The Poisson-Gamma model is one of the models in estimating small areas in the form of count data which is suitable for use in disease mapping cases. This study aims to find the relative risk value as the basis for mapping the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the city of Medan using the Standardized Morbility Ratio and Bayesian Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research. Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research.</span

Analisis Model Seirs terhadap Kecanduan Gadget Anak Usia Dini dengan Metode Runge-Kutta Orde-5

Penelitian ini membahas tentang kecanduan gadget yang dialami oleh anak usia dini menggunakan model matematika SEIRS, yang kemudian dianalisis menggunakan Runge-Kutta Orde ke-5. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah model matematika dS/dt=-0.14SI+0.03R, S(0)=5; dE/dt=0.14SI-0.012E, E(0)=22; dI/dt=0.006E-0.01I, I(0)=4; dR/dt=0.01I+0.012E-0.03R, R(0)=19. Dari model tersebut dihasilkan nilai iterasi dengan menggunakan Metode Runge-Kutta orde ke 5 pada waktu t=1 sampai t=3 dan ukuran langkah h=1 . Solusi model matematika SEIRS menghasilkan iterasi yang mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan. Namun, Metode Runge-kutta dinyatakan efektif dalam penyelesaian Model SEIRS karena angka galat yang dihasilkan mendekati nilai 0

ANALISIS PADA KEMATIAN AKIBAT PENYAKIT JANTUNG DI RUMAH SAKIT UMUM PUSAT H. ADAM MALIK MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN POISSON RIDGE REGRESSION (PRR)

Heart disease is a general term for all diseases that attack the heart organ. Death from the heart at the H. Adam Malik Central General Hospital was recorded to have a fairly high number. The purpose of this study was to determine the use of the Poisson Ridge Regression (PRR) method on the results of the analysis of deaths from heart disease at H. Adam Malik Central General Hospital Medan. PRR is a method that is generally used to estimate the regression of count data, and is very sensitive to multicollinearity. In this study, PRR was used to analyze deaths from heart disease in the presence of multicollinearity cases. The result shows that the estimated parameter of the PRR model is slightly different from the estimation of the Poisson regression model where the estimated value of the variable for patients with heart failure (X1) = 0,030751, the estimated value for patients with congenital heart disease (X2) = -0,002125, the estimated value for patients with heart disease ischemia (X3) = -0, 003085 and the estimated value of hypertension sufferers (X4) = 0,009689. The conclusion is that of the four variables, two of which have a positive influence on death from heart disease, namely patients with heart failure and patients with hypertension. This means that the more people with heart failure and hypertension, the more deaths from heart disease