Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO

The causes of the extreme and persistent warming in the Northeast Pacific from the winter of 2013/14 to that of 2014/15 are still not fully understood. While global warming may have contributed, natural influences may also have played a role. El Ni&ntilde;o events are often implicated in anomalously warm conditions along the US West Coast (USWC). However, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were generally weak during 2014, calling into question their role in the USWC warming. In this study, we identify tropical Pacific &ldquo;sensitivity patterns&rdquo; that optimally force USWC warming at a later time. We find that such sensitivity patterns do not coincide with the mature SST anomaly patterns usually associated with ENSO, but instead include elements associated with ENSO SST precursors and SST anomalies in the central/western equatorial Pacific. El Ni&ntilde;o events that produce large USWC warming, irrespective of their magnitude, do project on the sensitivity pattern and are characterized by a distinct evolution of the North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic fields. However, even weak tropical SST anomalies in the right location, and not necessarily associated with ENSO, can significantly influence USWC conditions and enhance their predictability.</p

Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability

International audienceEuropean flood frequency and intensity change on a multidecadal scale. Floods were more frequent in the 19th (central Europe) and early 20th century (western Europe) than during the mid-20th century and again more frequent since the 1970s. The causes of this variability are not well understood and the relation to climate change is unclear. Palaeoclimate studies from the northern Alps suggest that past flood-rich periods coincided with cold periods. In contrast, some studies suggest that more floods might occur in a future, warming world. Here we address the contribution of atmospheric circulation and of warming to multidecadal flood variability. For this, we use long series of annual peak streamflow, daily weather data, reanalyses, and reconstructions. We show that both changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture content affected multidecadal changes of annual peak streamflow in central and western Europe over the past two centuries. We find that during the 19th and early 20th century, atmospheric circulation changes led to high peak values of moisture flux convergence. The circulation was more conducive to strong and long-lasting precipitation events than in the mid-20th century. These changes are also partly reflected in the seasonal mean circulation and reproduced in atmospheric model simulations, pointing to a possible role of oceanic variability. For the period after 1980, increasing moisture content in a warming atmosphere led to extremely high moisture flux convergence. Thus, the main atmospheric driver of flood variability changed from atmospheric circulation variability to water vapour increase.La fréquence et l'intensité des inondations en Europe changent à une échelle multidécennale. Les inondations étaient plus fréquentes au 19ème (Europe centrale) et au début du 20ème siècle (Europe occidentale) qu'au milieu du 20ème siècle et à nouveau plus fréquentes depuis les années 1970. Les causes de cette variabilité ne sont pas bien comprises et la relation avec le changement climatique n'est pas claire. Les études paléoclimatiques menées dans les Alpes du Nord suggèrent que les périodes passées riches en inondations coïncidaient avec des périodes froides. En revanche, certaines études suggèrent que davantage d'inondations pourraient se produire dans un monde futur en réchauffement. Nous abordons ici la contribution de la circulation atmosphérique et du réchauffement à la variabilité multidécennale des inondations. Pour cela, nous utilisons de longues séries de débit maximal annuel, des données météorologiques quotidiennes, des réanalyses et des reconstructions climatiques. Nous montrons que les changements de la circulation atmosphérique et du contenu en humidité ont affecté les changements multidécennaux du débit maximal annuel en Europe centrale et occidentale au cours des deux derniers siècles. Nous constatons qu'au cours du 19ème et du début du 20ème siècle, les changements de la circulation atmosphérique ont conduit à des valeurs de pointe élevées de convergence du flux d'humidité. La circulation était plus propice à des événements de précipitations forts et durables qu'au milieu du 20e siècle. Ces changements se reflètent également en partie dans la circulation moyenne saisonnière et sont reproduits dans les simulations des modèles atmosphériques, ce qui indique un rôle possible de la variabilité océanique. Pour la période après 1980, l'augmentation de la teneur en humidité dans une atmosphère qui se réchauffe a conduit à une convergence extrêmement élevée des flux d'humidité. Ainsi, le principal moteur atmosphérique de la variabilité des crues est passé de la variabilité de la circulation atmosphérique à l'augmentation de la vapeur d'eau

Sensitivities of the NCEP Global Forecast System

An important issue in developing a forecast system is its sensitivity to additional observations for improving initial conditions, to the data assimilation (DA) method used, and to improvements in the forecast model. These sensitivities are investigated here for the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Four parallel sets of 7-day ensemble forecasts were generated for 100 forecast cases in mid-January to mid-March 2016. The sets differed in their 1) inclusion or exclusion of additional observations collected over the eastern Pacific during the El Ni&ntilde;o Rapid Response (ENRR) field campaign, 2) use of a hybrid 4D&ndash;EnVar versus a pure EnKF DA method to prepare the initial conditions, and 3) inclusion or exclusion of stochastic parameterizations in the forecast model. The Control forecast set used the ENRR observations, hybrid DA, and stochastic parameterizations. Errors of the ensemble-mean forecasts in this Control set were compared with those in the other sets, with emphasis on the upper-tropospheric geopotential heights and vorticity, midtropospheric vertical velocity, column-integrated precipitable water, near-surface air temperature, and surface precipitation. In general, the forecast errors were found to be only slightly sensitive to the additional ENRR observations, more sensitive to the DA methods, and most sensitive to the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations in the model, which reduced errors globally in all the variables considered except geopotential heights in the tropical upper troposphere. The reduction in precipitation errors, determined with respect to two independent observational datasets, was particularly striking.</p

An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a ‘‘best estimate’’ of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.The research work of R. Przybylak and P. Wyszynski was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland (Grants DEC-2012/07/B/ST10/04002 and 2015/19/B/ST10/02933)

Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields

D.: Global Atmospheric Sensitivity to Tropical SST Anomalies throughout the IndoPacific Basin

ABSTRACT The sensitivity of the global atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean basins is investigated using the NCEP MRF9 general circulation model (GCM). Model responses in January are first determined for a uniform array of 42 localized SST anomaly patches over the domain. Results from the individual forcing experiments are then linearly combined using a statistically based smoothing procedure to produce sensitivity maps for many target quantities of interest, including the geopotential height response over the Pacific-North American (PNA) region and regional precipitation responses over North America, South America, Africa, Australia, and Indonesia. Perhaps the most striking result from this analysis is that many important targets for seasonal forecasting, including the PNA response, are most sensitive to SST anomalies in the Niño-4 region (5ЊN-5ЊS, 150ЊW-160ЊE) of the central tropical Pacific, with lesser and sometimes opposite sensitivities to SST anomalies in the Niño-3 region (5ЊN-5ЊS, 90Њ-150ЊW) of the eastern tropical Pacific. However, certain important targets, such as Indonesian rainfall, are most sensitive to SST anomalies outside both the Niño-4 and -3 regions. These results are also relevant in assessing atmospheric sensitivity to changes in tropical SSTs on decadal to centennial scales associated with natural as well as anthropogenic forcing. In this context it is interesting to note the surprising result that warm SST anomalies in one-third of the Indo-Pacific domain lead to a decrease of global mean precipitation