Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

Climate data records (CDRs) derived from Earth observation (EO) should include rigorous uncertainty information, to support application of the data in policy, climate modelling and numerical weather prediction reanalysis. Uncertainty, error and quality are distinct concepts, and CDR products should follow international norms for presenting quantified uncertainty. Ideally, uncertainty should be quantified per datum in a CDR, and the uncertainty estimates should be able to discriminate more and less certain data with confidence. In this case, flags for data quality should not duplicate uncertainty information, but instead describe complementary information (such as the confidence held in the uncertainty estimate provided, or indicators of conditions violating retrieval assumptions). Errors have many sources and some are correlated across a wide range of time and space scales. Error effects that contribute negligibly to the total uncertainty in a single satellite measurement can be the dominant sources of uncertainty in a CDR on large space and long time scales that are highly relevant for some climate applications. For this reason, identifying and characterizing the relevant sources of uncertainty for CDRs is particularly challenging. Characterisation of uncertainty caused by a given error effect involves assessing the magnitude of the effect, the shape of the error distribution, and the propagation of the uncertainty to the geophysical variable in the CDR accounting for its error correlation properties. Uncertainty estimates can and should be validated as part of CDR validation, where possible. These principles are quite general, but the form of uncertainty information appropriate to different essential climate variables (ECVs) is highly variable, as confirmed by a quick review of the different approaches to uncertainty taken across different ECVs in the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative. User requirements for uncertainty information can conflict with each other, and again a variety of solutions and compromises are possible. The concept of an ensemble CDR as a simple means of communicating rigorous uncertainty information to users is discussed. Our review concludes by providing eight recommendations for good practice in providing and communicating uncertainty in EO-based climate data records

Why do we need a theory and metrics of technology upgrading?

This paper discusses why we need theory and metrics of technology upgrading. It critically reviews the existing approaches to technology upgrading and motivates build-up of theoretically relevant but empirically grounded middle level conceptual and statistical framework which could illuminate a type of challenges relevant for economies at different income levels. It conceptualizes technology upgrading as three dimensional processes composed of intensity and different types of technology upgrading through various types of innovation and technology activities; broadening of technology upgrading through different forms of technology and knowledge diversification, and interaction with global economy through knowledge import, adoption and exchange. We consider this to be necessary first step towards theory and metrics of technology upgrading and generation of more relevant composite indicator of technology upgrading

Multipurpose acoustic networks in the integrated arctic ocean observing system

The dramatic reduction of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will increase human activities in the coming years. This activity will be driven by increased demand for energy and the marine resources of an Arctic Ocean accessible to ships. Oil and gas exploration, fisheries, mineral extraction, marine transportation, research and development, tourism, and search and rescue will increase the pressure on the vulnerable Arctic environment. Technologies that allow synoptic in situ observations year-round are needed to monitor and forecast changes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system at daily, seasonal, annual, and decadal scales. These data can inform and enable both sustainable development and enforcement of international Arctic agreements and treaties, while protecting this critical environment. In this paper, we discuss multipurpose acoustic networks, including subsea cable components, in the Arctic. These networks provide communication, power, underwater and under-ice navigation, passive monitoring of ambient sound (ice, seismic, biologic, and anthropogenic), and acoustic remote sensing (tomography and thermometry), supporting and complementing data collection from platforms, moorings, and vehicles. We support the development and implementation of regional to basin-wide acoustic networks as an integral component of a multidisciplinary in situ Arctic Ocean observatory

The ESA climate change initiative: Satellite data records for essential climate variables

The ESA’s Climate Change Initiative is reprocessing and reassessing over 40 years of multi-sensor satellite records to generate consistent, traceable, long-term datasets of “essential climate variables” for the climate modeling and research communities

Diagnosis of invasive candidiasis in the ICU

Invasive candidiasis ranges from 5 to 10 cases per 1,000 ICU admissions and represents 5% to 10% of all ICU-acquired infections, with an overall mortality comparable to that of severe sepsis/septic shock. A large majority of them are due to Candida albicans, but the proportion of strains with decreased sensitivity or resistance to fluconazole is increasingly reported. A high proportion of ICU patients become colonized, but only 5% to 30% of them develop an invasive infection. Progressive colonization and major abdominal surgery are common risk factors, but invasive candidiasis is difficult to predict and early diagnosis remains a major challenge. Indeed, blood cultures are positive in a minority of cases and often late in the course of infection. New nonculture-based laboratory techniques may contribute to early diagnosis and management of invasive candidiasis. Both serologic (mannan, antimannan, and betaglucan) and molecular (Candida-specific PCR in blood and serum) have been applied as serial screening procedures in high-risk patients. However, although reasonably sensitive and specific, these techniques are largely investigational and their clinical usefulness remains to be established. Identification of patients susceptible to benefit from empirical antifungal treatment remains challenging, but it is mandatory to avoid antifungal overuse in critically ill patients. Growing evidence suggests that monitoring the dynamic of Candida colonization in surgical patients and prediction rules based on combined risk factors may be used to identify ICU patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis susceptible to benefit from prophylaxis or preemptive antifungal treatment

Towards an advanced observation system for the marine Arctic in the framework of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

The Arctic marine climate system is changing rapidly, which is seen in the warming of the ocean and atmosphere, decline of sea ice cover, increase in river discharge, acidification of the ocean, and changes in marine ecosystems. Socio-economic activities in the coastal and marine Arctic are simultaneously changing. This calls for the establishment of a marine Arctic component of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (MA-PEEX). There is a need for more in situ observations on the marine atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean, but increasing the amount of such observations is a pronounced technological and logistical challenge. The SMEAR (Station for Measuring Ecosystem–Atmosphere Relations) concept can be applied in coastal and archipelago stations, but in the Arctic Ocean it will probably be more cost-effective to further develop a strongly distributed marine observation network based on autonomous buoys, moorings, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These have to be supported by research vessel and aircraft campaigns, as well as various coastal observations, including community-based ones. Major manned drifting stations may occasionally be comparable to terrestrial SMEAR flagship stations. To best utilize the observations, atmosphere–ocean reanalyses need to be further developed. To well integrate MA-PEEX with the existing terrestrial–atmospheric PEEX, focus is needed on the river discharge and associated fluxes, coastal processes, and atmospheric transports in and out of the marine Arctic. More observations and research are also needed on the specific socio-economic challenges and opportunities in the marine and coastal Arctic, and on their interaction with changes in the climate and environmental system. MA-PEEX will promote international collaboration; sustainable marine meteorological, sea ice, and oceanographic observations; advanced data management; and multidisciplinary research on the marine Arctic and its interaction with the Eurasian continent.</p

Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage:routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure

The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.Albert Buixadé Farré, Scott R. Stephenson, Linling Chen, Michael Czub, Ying Dai, Denis Demchev, Yaroslav Efimov, Piotr Graczyk, Henrik Grythe, Kathrin Keil, Niku Kivekäs, Naresh Kumar, Nengye Liu, Igor Matelenok, Mari Myksvoll, Derek O'Leary, Julia Olsen, Sachin Pavithran.A.P., Edward Petersen, Andreas Raspotnik, Ivan Ryzhov, Jan Solski, Lingling Suo, Caroline Troein, Vilena Valeeva, Jaap van Rijckevorsel and Jonathan Wightin

Managing hyperemesis gravidarum: a multimodal challenge

Up to 90% of pregnant women experience nausea and vomiting. When prolonged or severe, this is known as hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), which can, in individual cases, be life threatening. In this article the aetiology, diagnosis and treatment strategies will be presented based on a selective literature review. Treatment strategies range from outpatient dietary advice and antiemetic drugs to hospitalization and intravenous (IV) fluid replacement in persistent or severe cases. Alternative methods, such as acupuncture, are not yet evidence based but sometimes have a therapeutic effect