Optimal Campaigning in Presidential Elections: The Probability of Being Florida

This paper delivers a precise recommendation for how presidential candidates should allocate their resources to maximize the probability of gaining a majority in the Electoral College. A two-candidate, probabilistic-voting model reveals that more resources should be devoted to states which are likely to be decisive in the electoral college and, at the same time, have very close state elections. The optimal strategies are empirically estimated using state-level opinion-polls available in September of the election year. The model’s recommended campaign strategies closely resemble those used in actual campaigns. The paper also analyses how the allocation of resources would change under the alternative electoral rule of a direct national vote for president.elections; political campaigns; public expenditures

Press Coverage and Political Accountability

In this paper we estimate the impact of press coverage on citizen knowledge, politicians' actions, and policy. We find that a poor fit between newspaper markets and political districts reduces press coverage of politics. We use variation in this fit due to redistricting to identify the effects of reduced coverage. Exploring the links in the causal chain of media effects -- voter information, politicians' actions and policy -- we find statistically significant and substantively important effects. Voters living in areas with less coverage of their U.S. House representative are less likely to recall their representative's name, and less able to describe and rate them. Congressmen who are less covered by the local press work less for their constituencies: they are less likely to stand witness before congressional hearings, to serve on constituency-oriented committees (perhaps), and to vote against the party line. Finally, this congressional behavior affects policy. Federal spending is lower in areas where there is less press coverage of the local members of congress.

JNCC Offshore Natura Survey : Anton Dohrn Seamount and East Rockall Bank areas of search : 2009/03-JNCC Cruise Report

This cruise report summarises operations and initial observations onboard the M/V Franklin during cruise 2009/03-JNCC on behalf of the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC). The cruise took place between the 1st and 29th of July 2009 and surveyed two Areas of Search (AoS) for offshore Special Areas of Conservation (SACs): Anton Dohrn Seamount located 155km west of the St Kilda archipelago, and East Rockall Bank located 260km west of the St Kilda archipelago (Figure 1). The main aims of the survey were to acquire acoustic and photographic “ground-truthing” data to enable geological, geomorphological and biological characterisation of the Anton Dohrn Seamount and East Rockall Bank AoS. Specifically, the data acquired will lead to the production of broadscale habitat maps, the identification and description of Annex I reef habitats with particular attention to the occurrence of bedrock, stony and biogenic reef, to identify and record any anthropogenic impacts in the areas of search and finally to evaluate data acquisition methods, techniques and equipment. The work programme was highly successful with 215 line kilometres of multibeam echosounder and 10 photographic “ground-truthing” sites acquired in the Anton Dohrn Seamount AoS, and 692 line kilometres of multibeam echosounder and 168 line kilometres of sidescan sonar data and 17 photographic “ground-truthing” sites acquired in the East Rockall Bank AoS. No physical sea-bed samples were acquired during this cruise. The data revealed the flanks and area immediately adjacent to Anton Dohrn Seamount to comprise predominantly gravel-rich sediment with bedrock outcropping on the steeper sections of the Seamount flanks. East Rockall Bank comprised predominantly gravelly muddy sand on the eastern flank of the Bank with gravel- and sand-rich sediments dominating the crest of the Bank. Interestingly, the parasitic cones surveyed within the Anton Dohrn area of search comprised predominantly corals, including large gorgonian species, small bamboo coral, the soft coral Anthomastus sp. and the antipatharian Leiopathes sp. Significant bedrock reef was encountered during the course of this cruise along an escarpment located on the eastern flank of Rockall Bank roughly coincident with the 500m bathymetric contour. This laterally extensive feature primarily comprises volcanic bedrock with possible sedimentary bedrock cropping out at sea bed colonised by large stylsaterid hydrocorals and sponges. Preliminary observations and interpretation of the data acquired during the course of this cruise suggest that several sites may fit the definition of Annex I reef under the EC Habitats Directive. If they fulfil the criteria for Annex I reef, they will be assessed against site selection criteria as possible areas for consideration as SACs

Material valorisation of amorphous polylactide. Influence of thermo-mechanical degradation on the morphology, segmental dynamics, thermal and mechanical performance

This paper reports the effects of multiple mechanical recycling on the structure and properties of amorphous polylactide (PLA). The influence of the thermo-mechanical degradation induced by means of five successive injection cycles was initially addressed in terms of macroscopic mechanical properties and surface modification. A deeper inspection on the structure and morphology of PLA was associated to the thermal properties and viscoelastic behaviour. Although FT-IR analysis did not show significant changes in functional groups, a remarkable reduction in molar mass was found by viscometry. PLA remained amorphous throughout the reprocessing cycles, but the occurrence of a cold-crystallization during DSC and DMTA measurements, which enthalpy increased with each reprocessing step, suggested chain scission due to thermo-mechanical degradation. The effect of chain shortening on the glass-rubber relaxation studied by DMTA showed an increase in free volume affecting the segmental dynamics of PLA, particularly after the application of the second reprocessing step, in connection to the overall loss of performance showed by the remaining properties

Effect of the dissolution time into an acid hydrolytic solvent to taylor electrospun nanofibrous polycaprolactone scaffolds

The hydrolysis of the polycaprolactone (PCL) as a function of the dissolution time in a formic/ acetic acid mixture was considered as a method for tailoring the morphology of nanofibrous PCL scaffolds. Hence, the aim of this research was to establish a correlation between the dissolution time of the polymer in the acid solvent with the physicochemical properties of the electrospun nanofibrous scaffolds and their further service life behaviour. The physico-chemical properties of the scaffolds were assessed in terms of fibre morphology, molar mass and thermal behaviour. A reduction of the molar mass and the lamellar thickness as well as an increase of the crystallinity degree were observed as a function of dissolution time. Bead-free fibres were found after 24 and 48 h of dissolution time, with similar diameter distributions. The decrease of the fibre diameter distributions along with the apparition of beads was especially significant for scaffolds prepared after 72 h and 120 h of dissolution time in the acid mixture. The service life of the obtained devices was evaluated by means of in vitro validation under abiotic physiological conditions. All the scaffolds maintained the nanofibrous structure after 100 days of immersion in water and PBS. The molar mass was barely affected and the crystallinity degree and the lamellar thickness increased along immersion, preventing scaffolds from degradation. Scaffolds prepared after 24 h and 48 h kept their fibre diameters, whereas those prepared after 72 h and 120 h showed a significant reduction. This PCL tailoring procedure to obtain scaffolds that maintain the nanoscaled structure after such long in vitro evaluation will bring new opportunities in the design of longterm biomedical patches

Biodegradation in soil effects on PLA/sisal and PHBV/sisal biocomposites

The use of bio-based composites like lignocellulosic fibres/polymer composites as an alternative materials are continuously increasing in several applications such as automobile manufacturing, packaging, construction or household and agricultural equipments. In order to warranty the durability on green biocomposites based on polymer matrixes like poly(hydroxy butyrate-co-valerate) (PHBV) and poly(lactide) (PLA), the previous knowledge about the influence of the ambient agents on their macromolecular properties is necessary. In this sense, biodegradation in soil normalised experiments are useful. In this work, two commercial PHBV and PLA were reinforced with sisal fibres at 10 %, 20% and 30% of weight, with the aid of maleic anhydride as coupling agent.the influence of the amount of sisal fiber and the effect of the coupling agent on the impact of the biodegradation in soil on the materiales, in terms of the variation of the physico-chemical properties of the biocomposites

Impact of hydrothermal ageing on the thermal stability, morphology and viscoelastic performance of PLA/sisal biocomposites

The influence of the combined exposure to water and temperature on the behaviour of polylactide/sisal biocomposites coupled with maleic acid anhydride was assessed through accelerated hydrothermal ageing. The biocomposites were immersed in water at temperatures from 65 to 85 C, between the glass transition and cold crystallisation of the PLA matrix. The results showed that the most influent factor for water absorption was the percentage of fibres, followed by the presence of coupling agent, whereas the effect of the temperature was not significant. Deep assessment was devoted to biocomposites subjected to hydrothermal ageing at 85 C, since it represents the extreme degrading condition. The morphology and crystallinity of the biocomposites were evaluated by means of X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). The viscoelastic and thermal performance were assessed by means of dynamic mechanic thermal analysis (DMTA) and thermogravimetry (TGA). The presence of sisal generally diminished the thermal stability of the biocomposites, which was mitigated by the addition of the coupling agent. After composite preparation, the effectiveness of the sisal fibre was improved by the crystallisation of PLA around sisal, which increased the storage modulus and reduced the dampening factor. The presence of the coupling agent strengthened this effect. After hydrothermal ageing, crystallisation was promoted in all biocomposites therefore showing more fragile behaviour evidencing pores and cracks. However, the addition of coupling agent in the formulation of biocomposites contributed in all cases to minimise the effects of hydrothermal ageing

Deglaciation of Fennoscandia

To provide a new reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, in the form of calendar-year time-slices, which are particularly useful for ice sheet modelling, we have compiled and synthesized published geomorphological data for eskers, ice-marginal formations, lineations, marginal meltwater channels, striae, ice-dammed lakes, and geochronological data from radiocarbon, varve, optically-stimulated luminescence, and cosmogenic nuclide dating. This 25 is summarized as a deglaciation map of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet with isochrons marking every 1000 years between 22 and 13 cal kyr BP and every hundred years between 11.6 and final ice decay after 9.7 cal kyr BP. Deglaciation patterns vary across the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet domain, reflecting differences in climatic and geomorphic settings as well as ice sheet basal thermal conditions and terrestrial versus marine margins. For example, the ice sheet margin in the high-precipitation coastal setting of the western sector responded sensitively to climatic variations leaving a detailed record of prominent moraines and ice-marginal deposits in many fjords and coastal valleys. Retreat rates across the southern sector differed between slow retreat of the terrestrial margin in western and southern Sweden and rapid retreat of the calving ice margin in the Baltic Basin. Our reconstruction is consistent with much of the published research. However, the synthesis of a large amount of existing and new data support refined reconstructions in some areas. For example, we locate the LGM extent of the ice sheet in northwestern Russia further east than previously suggested and conclude that it occurred at a later time than the rest of the ice sheet, at around 17-15 cal kyr BP, and propose a slightly different chronology of moraine formation over southern Sweden based on improved correlations of moraine segments using new LiDAR data and tying the timing of moraine formation to Greenland ice core cold stages. Retreat rates vary by as much as an order of magnitude in different sectors of the ice sheet, with the lowest rates on the high-elevation and maritime Norwegian margin. Retreat rates compared to the climatic information provided by the Greenland ice core record show a general correspondence between retreat rate and climatic forcing, although a close match between retreat rate and climate is unlikely because of other controls, such as topography and marine versus terrestrial margins. Overall, the time slice reconstructions of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet deglaciation from 22 to 9.7 cal kyr BP provide an important dataset for understanding the contexts that underpin spatial and temporal patterns in retreat of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and are an important resource for testing and refining ice sheet models

Water absorption and hydrothermal performance of PHBV/sisal biocomposites

The performance of biocomposites of poly(hydroxybutyrate-co-valerate) (PHBV) and sisal fibre subjected to hydrothermal tests at different temperatures above the glass transition of PHBV (TH = 26, 36 and 46 °C) was evaluated in this study. The influences of both the fibre content and presence of coupling agent were focused. The water absorption capability and water diffusion rate were considered for a statistical factorial analysis. Afterwards, the physico-chemical properties of water-saturated biocomposites were assessed by Fourier-Transform Infrared Analysis, Size Exclusion Chromatography, Differential Scanning Calorimetry and Scanning Electron Microscopy. It was found that the water diffusion rate increased with both temperature and percentage of fibre, whereas the amount of absorbed water was only influenced by fibre content. The use of coupling agent was only relevant at the initial stages of the hydrothermal test, giving an increase in the diffusion rate. Although the chemical structure and thermal properties of water-saturated biocomposites remained practically intact, the physical performance was considerably affected, due to the swelling of fibres, which internally blew-up the PHBV matrix, provoking cracks and fibre detachment