Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

The Chemopreventive Effects of Protandim: Modulation of p53 Mitochondrial Translocation and Apoptosis during Skin Carcinogenesis

Protandim, a well defined dietary combination of 5 well-established medicinal plants, is known to induce endogenous antioxidant enzymes, such as manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD). Our previous studies have shown through the induction of various antioxidant enzymes, products of oxidative damage can be decreased. In addition, we have shown that tumor multiplicity and incidence can be decreased through the dietary administration of Protandim in the two-stage skin carcinogenesis mouse model. It has been demonstrated that cell proliferation is accommodated by cell death during DMBA/TPA treatment in the two-stage skin carcinogenesis model. Therefore, we investigated the effects of the Protandim diet on apoptosis; and proposed a novel mechanism of chemoprevention utilized by the Protandim dietary combination. Interestingly, Protandim suppressed DMBA/TPA induced cutaneous apoptosis. Recently, more attention has been focused on transcription-independent mechanisms of the tumor suppressor, p53, that mediate apoptosis. It is known that cytoplasmic p53 rapidly translocates to the mitochondria in response to pro-apoptotic stress. Our results showed that Protandim suppressed the mitochondrial translocation of p53 and mitochondrial outer membrane proteins such as Bax. We examined the levels of p53 and MnSOD expression/activity in murine skin JB6 promotion sensitive (P+) and promotion-resistant (P-) epidermal cells. Interestingly, p53 was induced only in P+ cells, not P- cells; whereas MnSOD is highly expressed in P- cells when compared to P+ cells. In addition, wild-type p53 was transfected into JB6 P- cells. We found that the introduction of wild-type p53 promoted transformation in JB6 P- cells. Our results suggest that suppression of p53 and induction of MnSOD may play an important role in the tumor suppressive activity of Protandim

Human MMP28 expression is unresponsive to inflammatory stimuli and does not correlate to the grade of intervertebral disc degeneration

BACKGROUND: MMP28 (epilysin) is a recently discovered member of the MMP (matrix metalloproteinase) family that is, amongst others, expressed in osteoarthritic cartilage and intervertebral disc (IVD) tissue. In this study the hypothesis that increased expression of MMP28 correlates with higher grades of degeneration and is stimulated by the presence of proinflammatory molecules was tested. Gene expression levels of MMP28 were investigated in traumatic and degenerative human IVD tissue and correlated to the type of disease and the degree of degeneration (Thompson grade). Quantification of MMP28 gene expression in human IVD tissue or in isolated cells after stimulation with the inflammatory mediators lipopolysaccharide (LPS), interleukin (IL)-1β, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α or the histondeacetylase inhibitor trichostatin A was performed by real-time RT PCR. RESULTS: While MMP28 expression was increased in individual cases with trauma or disc degeneration, there was no significant correlation between the grade of disease and MMP28 expression. Stimulation with LPS, IL-1β, TNF-α or trichostatin A did not alter MMP28 gene expression at any investigated time point or any concentration. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that gene expression of MMP28 in the IVD is not regulated by inflammatory mechanisms, is donor-dependent and cannot be positively or negatively linked to the grade of degeneration and only weakly to the occurrence of trauma. New hypotheses and future studies are needed to find the role of MMP28 in the intervertebral disc

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail

Development of a New Biosensor by Adsorption of Creatinine Deiminase on Monolayers of Micro- and Nanoscale Zeolites

This work is dedicated to the development of creatinine-sensitive biosensor consisting of pH-sensitive field-effect transistor (pH-FET) and creatinine deiminase (CD) immobilized with various types of zeolites, in particular, silicalite, zeolite beta (BEA) and nanobeta, and BEA zeolites, modified with gold nanoparticles and ions. For comparison, the traditional method of CD immobilization in saturated glutaraldehyde (GA) vapor was used. To modify pH-FET with zeolites, a monolayer method of deposition was applied. All basic analytical characteristics of the developed biosensors were compared: linear range of creatinine determination, time of response and regeneration, minimum limit of detection, and response reproducibility within a single biosensor; the calibration curves were plotted. It is shown that the use of zeolites of different types as adsorbents in the development of creatinine-sensitive biosensors resulted in a decrease of time of response and regeneration, an increase in sensitivity of the bioselective element to creatinine, and improvement in reproducibility of preparation of various biosensors, as compared with the method of covalent cross-linking in GA vapor

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming