Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

The research on endothelial function in women and men at risk for cardiovascular disease (REWARD) study: methodology

Background Endothelial function has been shown to be a highly sensitive marker for the overall cardiovascular risk of an individual. Furthermore, there is evidence of important sex differences in endothelial function that may underlie the differential presentation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women relative to men. As such, measuring endothelial function may have sex-specific prognostic value for the prediction of CVD events, thus improving risk stratification for the overall prediction of CVD in both men and women. The primary objective of this study is to assess the clinical utility of the forearm hyperaemic reactivity (FHR) test (a proxy measure of endothelial function) for the prediction of CVD events in men vs. women using a novel, noninvasive nuclear medicine -based approach. It is hypothesised that: 1) endothelial dysfunction will be a significant predictor of 5-year CVD events independent of baseline stress test results, clinical, demographic, and psychological variables in both men and women; and 2) endothelial dysfunction will be a better predictor of 5-year CVD events in women compared to men. Methods/Design A total of 1972 patients (812 men and 1160 women) undergoing a dipyridamole stress testing were recruited. Medical history, CVD risk factors, health behaviours, psychological status, and gender identity were assessed via structured interview or self-report questionnaires at baseline. In addition, FHR was assessed, as well as levels of sex hormones via blood draw. Patients will be followed for 5 years to assess major CVD events (cardiac mortality, non-fatal MI, revascularization procedures, and cerebrovascular events). Discussion This is the first study to determine the extent and nature of any sex differences in the ability of endothelial function to predict CVD events. We believe the results of this study will provide data that will better inform the choice of diagnostic tests in men and women and bring the quality of risk stratification in women on par with that of men

Genomic Convergence among ERRα, PROX1, and BMAL1 in the Control of Metabolic Clock Outputs

Metabolic homeostasis and circadian rhythms are closely intertwined biological processes. Nuclear receptors, as sensors of hormonal and nutrient status, are actively implicated in maintaining this physiological relationship. Although the orphan nuclear receptor estrogen-related receptor α (ERRα, NR3B1) plays a central role in the control of energy metabolism and its expression is known to be cyclic in the liver, its role in temporal control of metabolic networks is unknown. Here we report that ERRα directly regulates all major components of the molecular clock. ERRα-null mice also display deregulated locomotor activity rhythms and circadian period lengths under free-running conditions, as well as altered circulating diurnal bile acid and lipid profiles. In addition, the ERRα-null mice exhibit time-dependent hypoglycemia and hypoinsulinemia, suggesting a role for ERRα in modulating insulin sensitivity and glucose handling during the 24-hour light/dark cycle. We also provide evidence that the newly identified ERRα corepressor PROX1 is implicated in rhythmic control of metabolic outputs. To help uncover the molecular basis of these phenotypes, we performed genome-wide location analyses of binding events by ERRα, PROX1, and BMAL1, an integral component of the molecular clock. These studies revealed the existence of transcriptional regulatory loops among ERRα, PROX1, and BMAL1, as well as extensive overlaps in their target genes, implicating these three factors in the control of clock and metabolic gene networks in the liver. Genomic convergence of ERRα, PROX1, and BMAL1 transcriptional activity thus identified a novel node in the molecular circuitry controlling the daily timing of metabolic processes

CD36 deficiency attenuates experimental mycobacterial infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Members of the CD36 scavenger receptor family have been implicated as sensors of microbial products that mediate phagocytosis and inflammation in response to a broad range of pathogens. We investigated the role of CD36 in host response to mycobacterial infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Experimental <it>Mycobacterium bovis </it>Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) infection in <it>Cd36^+/+</it>and <it>Cd36^-/-</it>mice, and <it>in vitro </it>co-cultivation of <it>M. tuberculosis</it>, BCG and <it>M. marinum </it>with <it>Cd36^+/+</it>and <it>Cd36^-/-</it>murine macrophages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using an <it>in vivo </it>model of BCG infection in <it>Cd36^+/+</it>and <it>Cd36^-/-</it>mice, we found that mycobacterial burden in liver and spleen is reduced (83% lower peak splenic colony forming units, p < 0.001), as well as the density of granulomas, and circulating tumor necrosis factor (TNF) levels in <it>Cd36^-/-</it>animals. Intracellular growth of all three mycobacterial species was reduced in <it>Cd36^-/-</it>relative to wild type <it>Cd36^+/+</it>macrophages <it>in vitro</it>. This difference was not attributable to alterations in mycobacterial uptake, macrophage viability, rate of macrophage apoptosis, production of reactive oxygen and/or nitrogen species, TNF or interleukin-10. Using an <it>in vitro </it>model designed to recapitulate cellular events implicated in mycobacterial infection and dissemination <it>in vivo </it>(i.e., phagocytosis of apoptotic macrophages containing mycobacteria), we demonstrated reduced recovery of viable mycobacteria within <it>Cd36^-/-</it>macrophages.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Together, these data indicate that CD36 deficiency confers resistance to mycobacterial infection. This observation is best explained by reduced intracellular survival of mycobacteria in the <it>Cd36^-/-</it>macrophage and a role for CD36 in the cellular events involved in granuloma formation that promote early bacterial expansion and dissemination.</p

β-hairpin-mediated formation of structurally distinct multimers of neurotoxic prion peptides

Protein misfolding disorders are associated with conformational changes in specific proteins, leading to the formation of potentially neurotoxic amyloid fibrils. During pathogenesis of prion disease, the prion protein misfolds into β-sheet rich, protease-resistant isoforms. A key, hydrophobic domain within the prion protein, comprising residues 109–122, recapitulates many properties of the full protein, such as helix-to-sheet structural transition, formation of fibrils and cytotoxicity of the misfolded isoform. Using all-atom, molecular simulations, it is demonstrated that the monomeric 109–122 peptide has a preference for α-helical conformations, but that this peptide can also form β-hairpin structures resulting from turns around specific glycine residues of the peptide. Altering a single amino acid within the 109–122 peptide (A117V, associated with familial prion disease) increases the prevalence of β-hairpin formation and these observations are replicated in a longer peptide, comprising residues 106–126. Multi-molecule simulations of aggregation yield different assemblies of peptide molecules composed of conformationally-distinct monomer units. Small molecular assemblies, consistent with oligomers, comprise peptide monomers in a β-hairpin-like conformation and in many simulations appear to exist only transiently. Conversely, larger assemblies are comprised of extended peptides in predominately antiparallel β-sheets and are stable relative to the length of the simulations. These larger assemblies are consistent with amyloid fibrils, show cross-β structure and can form through elongation of monomer units within pre-existing oligomers. In some simulations, assemblies containing both β-hairpin and linear peptides are evident. Thus, in this work oligomers are on pathway to fibril formation and a preference for β-hairpin structure should enhance oligomer formation whilst inhibiting maturation into fibrils. These simulations provide an important new atomic-level model for the formation of oligomers and fibrils of the prion protein and suggest that stabilization of β-hairpin structure may enhance cellular toxicity by altering the balance between oligomeric and fibrillar protein assemblies

Metabolic changes in concussed American football players during the acute and chronic post-injury phases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite negative neuroimaging findings many athletes display neurophysiological alterations and post-concussion symptoms that may be attributable to neurometabolic alterations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The present study investigated the effects of sports concussion on brain metabolism using ¹H-MR Spectroscopy by comparing a group of 10 non-concussed athletes with a group of 10 concussed athletes of the same age (mean: 22.5 years) and education (mean: 16 years) within both the acute and chronic post-injury phases. All athletes were scanned 1-6 days post-concussion and again 6-months later in a 3T Siemens MRI.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Concussed athletes demonstrated neurometabolic impairment in prefrontal and motor (M1) cortices in the acute phase where NAA:Cr levels remained depressed relative to controls. There was some recovery observed in the chronic phase where Glu:Cr levels returned to those of control athletes; however, there was a pathological increase of m-I:Cr levels in M1 that was only present in the chronic phase.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results confirm cortical neurometabolic changes in the acute post-concussion phase as well as recovery and continued metabolic abnormalities in the chronic phase. The results indicate that complex pathophysiological processes differ depending on the post-injury phase and the neurometabolite in question.</p

Genetic Signatures of Exceptional Longevity in Humans

Like most complex phenotypes, exceptional longevity is thought to reflect a combined influence of environmental (e.g., lifestyle choices, where we live) and genetic factors. To explore the genetic contribution, we undertook a genome-wide association study of exceptional longevity in 801 centenarians (median age at death 104 years) and 914 genetically matched healthy controls. Using these data, we built a genetic model that includes 281 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and discriminated between cases and controls of the discovery set with 89% sensitivity and specificity, and with 58% specificity and 60% sensitivity in an independent cohort of 341 controls and 253 genetically matched nonagenarians and centenarians (median age 100 years). Consistent with the hypothesis that the genetic contribution is largest with the oldest ages, the sensitivity of the model increased in the independent cohort with older and older ages (71% to classify subjects with an age at death>102 and 85% to classify subjects with an age at death>105). For further validation, we applied the model to an additional, unmatched 60 centenarians (median age 107 years) resulting in 78% sensitivity, and 2863 unmatched controls with 61% specificity. The 281 SNPs include the SNP rs2075650 in TOMM40/APOE that reached irrefutable genome wide significance (posterior probability of association = 1) and replicated in the independent cohort. Removal of this SNP from the model reduced the accuracy by only 1%. Further in-silico analysis suggests that 90% of centenarians can be grouped into clusters characterized by different “genetic signatures” of varying predictive values for exceptional longevity. The correlation between 3 signatures and 3 different life spans was replicated in the combined replication sets. The different signatures may help dissect this complex phenotype into sub-phenotypes of exceptional longevity

Effects of alirocumab on types of myocardial infarction: insights from the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial

Aims  The third Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) Task Force classified MIs into five types: Type 1, spontaneous; Type 2, related to oxygen supply/demand imbalance; Type 3, fatal without ascertainment of cardiac biomarkers; Type 4, related to percutaneous coronary intervention; and Type 5, related to coronary artery bypass surgery. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction with statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin–kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors reduces risk of MI, but less is known about effects on types of MI. ODYSSEY OUTCOMES compared the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab with placebo in 18 924 patients with recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and elevated LDL-C (≥1.8 mmol/L) despite intensive statin therapy. In a pre-specified analysis, we assessed the effects of alirocumab on types of MI. Methods and results  Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Myocardial infarction types were prospectively adjudicated and classified. Of 1860 total MIs, 1223 (65.8%) were adjudicated as Type 1, 386 (20.8%) as Type 2, and 244 (13.1%) as Type 4. Few events were Type 3 (n = 2) or Type 5 (n = 5). Alirocumab reduced first MIs [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.95; P = 0.003], with reductions in both Type 1 (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77–0.99; P = 0.032) and Type 2 (0.77, 0.61–0.97; P = 0.025), but not Type 4 MI. Conclusion  After ACS, alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy favourably impacted on Type 1 and 2 MIs. The data indicate for the first time that a lipid-lowering therapy can attenuate the risk of Type 2 MI. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below levels achievable with statins is an effective preventive strategy for both MI types.For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehz299</p

Effect of alirocumab on mortality after acute coronary syndromes. An analysis of the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES randomized clinical trial

Background: Previous trials of PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9) inhibitors demonstrated reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events, but not death. We assessed the effects of alirocumab on death after index acute coronary syndrome. Methods: ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was a double-blind, randomized comparison of alirocumab or placebo in 18 924 patients who had an ACS 1 to 12 months previously and elevated atherogenic lipoproteins despite intensive statin therapy. Alirocumab dose was blindly titrated to target achieved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) between 25 and 50 mg/dL. We examined the effects of treatment on all-cause death and its components, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, with log-rank testing. Joint semiparametric models tested associations between nonfatal cardiovascular events and cardiovascular or noncardiovascular death. Results: Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Death occurred in 334 (3.5%) and 392 (4.1%) patients, respectively, in the alirocumab and placebo groups (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.98; P=0.03, nominal P value). This resulted from nonsignificantly fewer cardiovascular (240 [2.5%] vs 271 [2.9%]; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.05; P=0.15) and noncardiovascular (94 [1.0%] vs 121 [1.3%]; HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.01; P=0.06) deaths with alirocumab. In a prespecified analysis of 8242 patients eligible for ≥3 years follow-up, alirocumab reduced death (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.94; P=0.01). Patients with nonfatal cardiovascular events were at increased risk for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths (P<0.0001 for the associations). Alirocumab reduced total nonfatal cardiovascular events (P<0.001) and thereby may have attenuated the number of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths. A post hoc analysis found that, compared to patients with lower LDL-C, patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dL (2.59 mmol/L) had a greater absolute risk of death and a larger mortality benefit from alirocumab (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.90; Pinteraction=0.007). In the alirocumab group, all-cause death declined wit h achieved LDL-C at 4 months of treatment, to a level of approximately 30 mg/dL (adjusted P=0.017 for linear trend). Conclusions: Alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy has the potential to reduce death after acute coronary syndrome, particularly if treatment is maintained for ≥3 years, if baseline LDL-C is ≥100 mg/dL, or if achieved LDL-C is low. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01663402