Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network

A feed-forward neural network is configured to calibrate the bias of a high-resolution probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) produced by a 12-km version of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) ensemble forecast system. Twice-daily forecasts during the 2002-2003 cool season (1 November-31 March, inclusive) are run over four U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit regions of the southwest United States. Calibration is performed via a cross-validation procedure, where four months are used for training and the excluded month is used for testing. The PQPFs before and after the calibration over a hydrological unit region are evaluated by comparing the joint probability distribution of forecasts and observations. Verification is performed on the 4-km stage IV grid, which is used as "truth." The calibration procedure improves the Brier score (BrS), conditional bias (reliability) and forecast skill, such as the Brier skill score (BrSS) and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS), relative to the sample frequency for all geographic regions and most precipitation thresholds. However, the procedure degrades the resolution of the PQPFs by systematically producing more forecasts with low nonzero forecast probabilities that drive the forecast distribution closer to the climatology of the training sample. The problem of degrading the resolution is most severe over the Colorado River basin and the Great Basin for relatively high precipitation thresholds where the sample of observed events is relatively small. © 2007 American Meteorological Society

Short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States by the RSM ensemble system

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is used to produce twice-daily (0000 and 1200 UTC), high-resolution ensemble forecasts to 24 h. The forecasts are performed at an equivalent horizontal grid spacing of 12 km for the period 1 November 2002 to 31 March 2003 over the southwest United States. The performance of 6-h accumulated precipitation is assessed for 32 U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic catchments. Multiple accuracy and skill measures are used to evaluate probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. NCEP stage-IV precipitation analyses are used as "truth," with verification performed on the stage-IV 4-km grid. The RSM ensemble exhibits a ubiquitous wet bias. The bias manifests itself in areal coverage, frequency of occurrence, and total accumulated precipitation over every region and during every 6-h period. The biases become particularly acute starting with the 1800-0000 UTC interval, which leads to a spurious diurnal cycle and the 1200 UTC cycle being more adversely affected than the 0000 UTC cycle. Forecast quality and value exhibit marked variability over different hydrologic regions. The forecasts are highly skillful along coastal California and the windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, but they generally lack skill over the Great Basin and the Colorado basin except over mountain peaks. The RSM ensemble is able to discriminate precipitation events and provide useful guidance to a wide range of users over most regions of California, which suggests that mitigation of the conditional biases through statistical postprocessing would produce major improvements in skill. © 2007 American Meteorological Society

Simvastatin inhibits TLR8 signaling in primary human monocytes and spontaneous TNF production from rheumatoid synovial membrane cultures

Simvastatin has been shown to have anti-inflammatory effects that are independent of its serum cholesterol lowering action, but the mechanisms by which these anti-inflammatory effects are mediated have not been elucidated. To explore the mechanism involved, the effect of simvastatin on Toll-like receptor (TLR) signalling in primary human monocytes was investigated. A short pre-treatment with simvastatin dose-dependently inhibited the production of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF) in response to TLR8 (but not TLRs 2, 4, or 5) activation. Statins are known inhibitors of the cholesterol biosynthetic pathway, but intriguingly TLR8 inhibition could not be reversed by addition of mevalonate or geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate; downstream products of cholesterol biosynthesis. TLR8 signalling was examined in HEK 293 cells stably expressing TLR8, where simvastatin inhibited IKKα/β phosphorylation and subsequent NF-κB activation without affecting the pathway to AP-1. Since simvastatin has been reported to have anti-inflammatory effects in RA patients and TLR8 signalling contributes to TNF production in human RA synovial tissue in culture, simvastatin was tested in these cultures. Simvastatin significantly inhibited the spontaneous release of TNF in this model which was not reversed by mevalonate. Together, these results demonstrate a hitherto unrecognized mechanism of simvastatin inhibition of TLR8 signalling that may in part explain its beneficial anti-inflammatory effects

Smc5/6 coordinates formation and resolution of joint molecules with chromosome morphology to ensure meiotic divisions

During meiosis, Structural Maintenance of Chromosome (SMC) complexes underpin two fundamental features of meiosis: homologous recombination and chromosome segregation. While meiotic functions of the cohesin and condensin complexes have been delineated, the role of the third SMC complex, Smc5/6, remains enigmatic. Here we identify specific, essential meiotic functions for the Smc5/6 complex in homologous recombination and the regulation of cohesin. We show that Smc5/6 is enriched at centromeres and cohesin-association sites where it regulates sister-chromatid cohesion and the timely removal of cohesin from chromosomal arms, respectively. Smc5/6 also localizes to recombination hotspots, where it promotes normal formation and resolution of a subset of joint-molecule intermediates. In this regard, Smc5/6 functions independently of the major crossover pathway defined by the MutLγ complex. Furthermore, we show that Smc5/6 is required for stable chromosomal localization of the XPF-family endonuclease, Mus81-Mms4Eme1. Our data suggest that the Smc5/6 complex is required for specific recombination and chromosomal processes throughout meiosis and that in its absence, attempts at cell division with unresolved joint molecules and residual cohesin lead to severe recombination-induced meiotic catastroph

The interaction between practice and performance pressure on the planning and control of fast target directed movement

Pressure to perform often results in decrements to both outcome accuracy and the kinematics of motor skills. Furthermore, this pressure-performance relationship is moderated by the amount of accumulated practice or the experience of the performer. However, the interactive effects of performance pressure and practice on the underlying processes of motor skills are far from clear. Movement execution involves both an offline pre-planning process and an online control process. The present experiment aimed to investigate the interaction between pressure and practice on these two motor control processes. Two groups of participants (control and pressure; N = 12 and 12, respectively) practiced a video aiming amplitude task and were transferred to either a non-pressure (control group) or a pressure condition (pressure group) both early and late in practice. Results revealed similar accuracy and movement kinematics between the control and pressure groups at early transfer. However, at late transfer, the introduction of pressure was associated with increased performance compared to control conditions. Analysis of kinematic variability throughout the movement suggested that the performance increase was due to participants adopting strategies to improve movement planning in response to pressure reducing the effectiveness of the online control system

Effectiveness of second-generation antipsychotics: a naturalistic, randomized comparison of olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>No clear recommendations exist regarding which antipsychotic drug should be prescribed first for a patient suffering from psychosis. The primary aims of this naturalistic study were to assess the head-to-head effectiveness of first-line second-generation antipsychotics with regards to time until drug discontinuation, duration of index admission, time until readmission, change of psychopathology scores and tolerability outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients ≥ 18 years of age admitted to the emergency ward for symptoms of psychosis were consecutively randomized to risperidone (n = 53), olanzapine (n = 52), quetiapine (n = 50), or ziprasidone (n = 58), and followed for up to 2 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 213 patients were included, of which 68% were males. The sample represented a diverse population suffering from psychosis. At admittance the mean Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score was 74 points and 44% were antipsychotic drug naïve. The primary intention-to-treat analyses revealed no substantial differences between the drugs regarding the times until discontinuation of initial drug, until discharge from index admission, or until readmission. Quetiapine was superior to risperidone and olanzapine in reducing the PANSS total score and the positive subscore. Quetiapine was superior to the other drugs in decreasing the PANSS general psychopathology subscore; in decreasing the Clinical Global Impression - Severity of Illness scale score (CGI-S); and in increasing the Global Assessment of Functioning - Split version, Functions scale score (GAF-F). Ziprasidone was superior to risperidone in decreasing the PANSS positive symptoms subscore and the CGI-S score, and in increasing the GAF-F score. The drugs performed equally with regards to most tolerability outcomes except a higher increase of hip-circumference per day for olanzapine compared to risperidone, and more galactorrhoea for risperidone compared to the other groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Quetiapine appears to be a good starting drug candidate in this sample of patients admitted to hospital for symptoms of psychosis.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov ID; URL: <url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/</url>: NCT00932529</p

Diversity of Matriptase Expression Level and Function in Breast Cancer

Overexpression of matriptase has been reported in a variety of human cancers and is sufficient to trigger tumor formation in mice, but the importance of matriptase in breast cancer remains unclear. We analysed matriptase expression in 16 human breast cancer cell lines and in 107 primary breast tumors. The data revealed considerable diversity in the expression level of this protein indicating that the significance of matriptase may vary from case to case. Matriptase protein expression was correlated with HER2 expression and highest expression was seen in HER2-positive cell lines, indicating a potential role in this subgroup. Stable overexpression of matriptase in two breast cancer cell lines had different consequences. In MDA-MB-231 human breast carcinoma cells the only noted consequence of matriptase overexpression was modestly impaired growth in vivo. In contrast, overexpression of matriptase in 4T1 mouse breast carcinoma cells resulted in visible changes in morphology, actin staining and cell to cell contacts. This correlated with downregulation of the cell-cell adhesion molecule E-cadherin. These results suggest that the functions of matriptase in breast cancer are likely to be variable and cell context dependent

Effectiveness of second generation antipsychotics: A systematic review of randomized trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systematic reviews based on efficacy trials are inconclusive about which second generation antipsychotic drug (SGA) should be preferred in normal clinical practice, and studies with longer duration and more pragmatic designs are called for. Effectiveness studies, also known as naturalistic, pragmatic, practical or real life studies, adhere to these principles as they aim to mimic daily clinical practice and have longer follow-up.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To review the head-to-head effectiveness of SGAs in the domains of global outcomes, symptoms of disease, and tolerability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Searches were made in Embase, PubMED, and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials for effectiveness studies published from 1980 to 2008, week 1. Different combinations of the keywords <it>antipsychotic*, neuroleptic* AND open, pragmatic, practical, naturalistic, real life, effectiveness, side effect*, unwanted effect*, tolera* AND compar* AND random* </it>were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixteen different reports of randomized head-to-head comparisons of SGA effectiveness were located. There were differences regarding sample sizes, inclusion criteria and follow-up periods, as well as sources of financial sponsorship. In acute-phase and first-episode patients no differences between the SGAs were disclosed regarding alleviating symptoms of disease. Olanzapine was associated with more weight gain and adverse effects on serum lipids. In the chronic phase patients olanzapine groups had longer time to discontinuation of treatment and better treatment adherence compared to other SGAs. The majority of studies found no differences between the SGAs in alleviating symptoms of psychosis in chronically ill patients. Olanzapine was associated with more metabolic adverse effects compared to the others SGAs. There were surprisingly few between-drug differences regarding side effects. First generation antipsychotics were associated with lower total mental health care costs in 2 of 3 studies on chronically ill patients, but were also associated with more extrapyramidal side effects compared to the SGAs in several studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In chronically ill patients olanzapine may have an advantage over other SGAs regarding longer time to treatment discontinuation and better drug adherence, but the drug is also associated with more metabolic side effects. More effectiveness studies on first-episode psychosis are needed.</p

Spotting Signs of Autism in 3-Year-Olds: Comparing Information from Parents and Preschool Staff

© 2018, The Author(s). Preschool informants may provide valuable information about symptoms of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in young children. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of ratings by preschool staff with those by parents of 3-year-old children using the Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment Preschool Forms. The sample consisted of 32 children at familial risk for ASD without diagnosis, 10 children at risk for ASD with diagnosis, and 14 low-risk typically developing controls. Preschool staff ratings were more accurate than parent ratings at differentiating children with and without ASD, and more closely associated with clinician-rated symptoms. These results point to the value of information from preschool informants in early detection and diagnostic assessments

Investigation of autism and GABA receptor subunit genes in multiple ethnic groups

Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of complex genetics, characterized by impairment in social interaction and communication, as well as repetitive behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, including alterations in levels of GABA and GABA receptors in autistic patients, indicate that the GABAergic system, which is responsible for synaptic inhibition in the adult brain, may be involved in autism. Previous studies in our lab indicated association of noncoding single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within a GABA receptor subunit gene on chromosome 4, GABRA4, and interaction between SNPs in GABRA4 and GABRB1 (also on chromosome 4), within Caucasian autism patients. Studies of genetic variation in African-American autism families are rare. Analysis of 557 Caucasian and an independent population of 54 African-American families with 35 SNPs within GABRB1 and GABRA4 strengthened the evidence for involvement of GABRA4 in autism risk in Caucasians (rs17599165, p=0.0015; rs1912960, p=0.0073; and rs17599416, p=0.0040) and gave evidence of significant association in African-Americans (rs2280073, p=0.0287 and rs16859788, p=0.0253). The GABRA4 and GABRB1 interaction was also confirmed in the Caucasian dataset (most significant pair, rs1912960 and rs2351299; p=0.004). Analysis of the subset of families with a positive history of seizure activity in at least one autism patient revealed no association to GABRA4; however, three SNPs within GABRB1 showed significant allelic association; rs2351299 (p=0.0163), rs4482737 (p=0.0339), and rs3832300 (p=0.0253). These results confirmed our earlier findings, indicating GABRA4 and GABRB1 as genes contributing to autism susceptibility, extending the effect to multiple ethnic groups and suggesting seizures as a stratifying phenotype