Quitting patient care and career break intentions among general practitioners in South West England: findings of a census survey of general practitioners

Objective: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs’ career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. Design: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. Setting: South West England (population 3.5  million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. Participants: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate). Main outcome measures: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response. Results: Responders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. Of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95%  CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95%  CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95%  CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95%  CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs’ career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. Conclusions: A substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. Study registration: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700

Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply−demand imbalance

Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply–demand imbalance. Design: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners’ (GPs’) career intentions (2016). Setting/Participants: A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply–demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012–2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). Primary outcome measure: The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply–demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). Results: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply–demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply–demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP’s career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply–demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs’ gender and age. Conclusions: It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice’s future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available

HCN ice in Titan's high-altitude southern polar cloud

Titan's middle atmosphere is currently experiencing a rapid change of season after northern spring arrived in 2009. A large cloud was observed for the first time above Titan's southern pole in May 2012, at an altitude of 300 km. This altitude previously showed a temperature maximum and condensation was not expected for any of Titan's atmospheric gases. Here we show that this cloud is composed of micron-sized hydrogen cyanide (HCN) ice particles. The presence of HCN particles at this altitude, together with new temperature determinations from mid-infrared observations, indicate a very dramatic cooling of Titan's atmosphere inside the winter polar vortex in early 2012. Such a cooling is completely contrary to previously measured high-altitude warming in the polar vortex, and temperatures are a hundred degrees colder than predicted by circulation models. Besides elucidating the nature of Titan's mysterious polar cloud, these results thus show that post-equinox cooling at the winter pole is much more efficient than previously thought.Comment: Published in Nature on 2 October 2014. This is the author version, before final editing by Natur

Measuring quality of life in patients with abdominal wall hernias: a systematic review of available tools

Introduction Abdominal wall herniation (AWH) is an increasing problem for patients, surgeons, and healthcare providers. Surgical-site specific outcomes, such as infection, recurrence, and mesh explantation, are improving; however, successful repair still exposes the patient to what is often a complex major operation aimed at improving quality of life. Quality-of-life (QOL) outcomes, such as aesthetics, pain, and physical and emotional functioning, are less often and less well reported. We reviewed QOL tools currently available to evaluate their suitability. Methods A systematic review of the literature in compliance with PRISMA guidelines was performed between 1st January 1990 and 1st May 2019. English language studies using validated quality-of-life assessment tool, whereby outcomes using this tool could be assessed were included. Results Heterogeneity in the QOL tool used for reporting outcome was evident throughout the articles reviewed. AWH disease-specific tools, hernia-specific tools, and generic tools were used throughout the literature with no obviously preferred or dominant method identified. Conclusion Despite increasing acknowledgement of the need to evaluate QOL in patients with AWH, no tool has become dominant in this field. Assessment, therefore, of the impact of certain interventions or techniques on quality of life remains difficult and will continue to do so until an adequate standardised outcome measurement tool is available

Appetite, gut hormone and energy intake responses to low volume sprint interval and traditional endurance exercise.

Sprint interval exercise improves several health markers but the appetite and energy balance response is unknown. This study compared the effects of sprint interval and endurance exercise on appetite, energy intake and gut hormone responses. Twelve healthy males [mean (SD): age 23 (3) years, body mass index 24.2 (2.9) kg m(-2), maximum oxygen uptake 46.3 (10.2) mL kg(-1) min(-1)] completed three 8 h trials [control (CON), endurance exercise (END), sprint interval exercise (SIE)] separated by 1 week. Trials commenced upon completion of a standardised breakfast. Sixty minutes of cycling at 68.1 (4.3) % of maximum oxygen uptake was performed from 1.75-2.75 h in END. Six 30-s Wingate tests were performed from 2.25-2.75 h in SIE. Appetite ratings, acylated ghrelin and peptide YY (PYY) concentrations were measured throughout each trial. Food intake was monitored from buffet meals at 3.5 and 7 h and an overnight food bag. Appetite (P 0.05). Therefore, relative energy intake (energy intake minus the net energy expenditure of exercise) was lower in END than that in CON (15.7 %; P = 0.006) and SIE (11.5 %; P = 0.082). An acute bout of endurance exercise resulted in lower appetite perceptions in the hours after exercise than sprint interval exercise and induced a greater 24 h energy deficit due to higher energy expenditure during exercise

CD98hc facilitates B cell proliferation and adaptive humoral immunity.

The proliferation of antigen-specific lymphocytes and resulting clonal expansion are essential for adaptive immunity. We report here that B cell-specific deletion of the heavy chain of CD98 (CD98hc) resulted in lower antibody responses due to total suppression of B cell proliferation and subsequent plasma cell formation. Deletion of CD98hc did not impair early B cell activation but did inhibit later activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase Erk1/2 and downregulation of the cell cycle inhibitor p27. Reconstitution of CD98hc-deficient B cells with CD98hc mutants showed that the integrin-binding domain of CD98hc was required for B cell proliferation but that the amino acid-transport function of CD98hc was dispensable for this. Thus, CD98hc supports integrin-dependent rapid proliferation of B cells. We propose that the advantage of adaptive immunity favored the appearance of CD98hc in vertebrates

Multi-stakeholder consensus on a target product profile for an HIV cure

Developing a cure for HIV is a global priority. Target product profiles are a tool commonly used throughout the drug development process to align interested parties around a clear set of goals or requirements for a potential product. Three distinct therapeutic modalities (combination therapies, ex-vivo gene therapy, and in-vivo gene therapy) for a target product profile for an HIV cure were identified. Using a process of expert face-to-face consultation and an online Delphi consultation, we found a high degree of agreement regarding the criteria for the optimum target product profile. Although the minimum attributes for a cure were debated, the broad consensus was that an acceptable cure need not be as safe and effective as optimally delivered antiretroviral therapy. An intervention that successfully cured a reasonable fraction of adults would be sufficient to advance to the clinic. These target product profiles will require further discussion and ongoing revisions as the field matures

The case for an HIV cure and how to get there

In light of the increasing global burden of new HIV infections, growing financial requirements, and shifting funding landscape, the global health community must accelerate the development and delivery of an HIV cure to complement existing prevention modalities. An effective curative intervention could prevent new infections, overcome the limitations of antiretroviral treatment, combat stigma and discrimination, and provide a sustainable financial solution for pandemic control. We propose steps to plan for an HIV cure now, including defining a target product profile and establishing the HIV Cure Africa Acceleration Partnership (HCAAP), a multidisciplinary public-private partnership that will catalyse and promote HIV cure research through diverse stakeholder engagement. HCAAP will convene stakeholders, including people living with HIV, at an early stage to accelerate the design, social acceptability, and rapid adoption of HIV-cure products

Mapping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Genetic Diversity Profiles in Tanzania and Other African Countries

The aim of this study was to assess and characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) genotypic diversity in Tanzania, as well as in neighbouring East and other several African countries. We used spoligotyping to identify a total of 293 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates (one isolate per patient) collected in the Bunda, Dar es Salaam, Ngorongoro and Serengeti areas in Tanzania. The results were compared with results in the SITVIT2 international database of the Pasteur Institute of Guadeloupe. Genotyping and phylogeographical analyses highlighted the predominance of the CAS, T, EAI, and LAM MTBC lineages in Tanzania. The three most frequent Spoligotype International Types (SITs) were: SIT21/CAS1-Kili (n = 76; 25.94%), SIT59/LAM11-ZWE (n = 22; 7.51%), and SIT126/EAI5 tentatively reclassified as EAI3-TZA (n = 18; 6.14%). Furthermore, three SITs were newly created in this study (SIT4056/EAI5 n = 2, SIT4057/T1 n = 1, and SIT4058/EAI5 n = 1). We noted that the East-African-Indian (EAI) lineage was more predominant in Bunda, the Manu lineage was more common among strains isolated in Ngorongoro, and the Central-Asian (CAS) lineage was more predominant in Dar es Salaam (p-value<0.0001). No statistically significant differences were noted when comparing HIV status of patients vs. major lineages (p-value = 0.103). However, when grouping lineages as Principal Genetic Groups (PGG), we noticed that PGG2/3 group (Haarlem, LAM, S, T, and X) was more associated with HIV-positive patients as compared to PGG1 group (Beijing, CAS, EAI, and Manu) (p-value = 0.03). This study provided mapping of MTBC genetic diversity in Tanzania (containing information on isolates from different cities) and neighbouring East African and other several African countries highlighting differences as regards to MTBC genotypic distribution between Tanzania and other African countries. This work also allowed underlining of spoligotyping patterns tentatively grouped within the newly designated EAI3-TZA lineage (remarkable by absence of spacers 2 and 3, and represented by SIT126) which seems to be specific to Tanzania. However, further genotyping information would be needed to confirm this specificity