The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

Gene Function Classification Using Bayesian Models with Hierarchy-Based Priors

We investigate the application of hierarchical classification schemes to the annotation of gene function based on several characteristics of protein sequences including phylogenic descriptors, sequence based attributes, and predicted secondary structure. We discuss three Bayesian models and compare their performance in terms of predictive accuracy. These models are the ordinary multinomial logit (MNL) model, a hierarchical model based on a set of nested MNL models, and a MNL model with a prior that introduces correlations between the parameters for classes that are nearby in the hierarchy. We also provide a new scheme for combining different sources of information. We use these models to predict the functional class of Open Reading Frames (ORFs) from the E. coli genome. The results from all three models show substantial improvement over previous methods, which were based on the C5 algorithm. The MNL model using a prior based on the hierarchy outperforms both the non-hierarchical MNL model and the nested MNL model. In contrast to previous attempts at combining these sources of information, our approach results in a higher accuracy rate when compared to models that use each data source alone. Together, these results show that gene function can be predicted with higher accuracy than previously achieved, using Bayesian models that incorporate suitable prior information

Impacts of organic and conventional crop management on diversity and activity of free-living nitrogen fixing bacteria and total bacteria are subsidiary to temporal effects

A three year field study (2007-2009) of the diversity and numbers of the total and metabolically active free-living diazotophic bacteria and total bacterial communities in organic and conventionally managed agricultural soil was conducted at the Nafferton Factorial Systems Comparison (NFSC) study, in northeast England. The result demonstrated that there was no consistent effect of either organic or conventional soil management across the three years on the diversity or quantity of either diazotrophic or total bacterial communities. However, ordination analyses carried out on data from each individual year showed that factors associated with the different fertility management measures including availability of nitrogen species, organic carbon and pH, did exert significant effects on the structure of both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. It appeared that the dominant drivers of qualitative and quantitative changes in both communities were annual and seasonal effects. Moreover, regression analyses showed activity of both communities was significantly affected by soil temperature and climatic conditions. The diazotrophic community showed no significant change in diversity across the three years, however, the total bacterial community significantly increased in diversity year on year. Diversity was always greatest during March for both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. Quantitative analyses using qPCR of each community indicated that metabolically active diazotrophs were highest in year 1 but the population significantly declined in year 2 before recovering somewhat in the final year. The total bacterial population in contrast increased significantly each year. Seasonal effects were less consistent in this quantitative study

Normalized Lift: An Energy Interpretation of the Lift Coefficient Simplifies Comparisons of the Lifting Ability of Rotating and Flapping Surfaces

For a century, researchers have used the standard lift coefficient CL to evaluate the lift, L, generated by fixed wings over an area S against dynamic pressure, ½ρv2, where v is the effective velocity of the wing. Because the lift coefficient was developed initially for fixed wings in steady flow, its application to other lifting systems requires either simplifying assumptions or complex adjustments as is the case for flapping wings and rotating cylinders

Economic burden of illness of acute coronary syndromes: medical and productivity costs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The significant economic burden associated with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) provides a need to evaluate both medical costs and productivity costs, according to evolving guideline-driven ACS treatment strategies, medical management (MM), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Commercially insured individuals, aged 18-64, with an emergency room (ER) visit or hospitalization accompanied by an ACS diagnosis (index event) were identified from a large claims database between 01/2004 and 12/2005 with a 1-year follow-up period. Patients who had an ACS diagnosis in the 12 months prior to their index event were excluded. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to treatment strategies during the index event: MM, PCI, or CABG. A subset of patients was identified for the productivity cost analysis exploring short-term disability and absenteeism costs. Multivariate generalized linear models were performed to examine the ACS costs by 3 different treatment strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 10,487 patients were identified for the medical cost analysis. The total 1-year medical costs (index event costs plus the 1-year follow-up costs) were lowest for MM patients ($34,087), followed by PCI patients ($52,673) and CABG patients ($86,914). Of the 3,080 patients in the productivity costs analysis, 2,454 patients were identified in the short-term disability cohort and 626 patients were identified in the absenteeism cohort. Both the estimated mean total 1-year short-term disability and absenteeism costs were highest for CABG patients ($17,335, $14,960, respectively) compared to MM patients ($6,048, $9,826, respectively) and PCI patients ($9,221, $9,460, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both total 1-year medical costs and 1-year productivity costs are substantial for working-aged individuals with ACS. These costs differ according to the type of treatment strategy, with CABG having higher costs compared to either PCI or MM.</p

Differences in Accumulation and Virulence Determine the Outcome of Competition during Tobacco etch virus Coinfection

Understanding the evolution of virulence for RNA viruses is essential for developing appropriate control strategies. Although it has been usually assumed that virulence is a consequence of within-host replication of the parasite, viral strains may be highly virulent without experiencing large accumulation as a consequence of immunopathological host responses. Using two strains of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) that show a negative relationship between virulence and accumulation rate, we first explored the evolution of virulence and fitness traits during simple and mixed infections. Short-term evolution experiments initiated with each strain independently confirmed the genetic and evolutionary stability of virulence and viral load, although infectivity significantly increased for both strains. Second, competition experiments between hypo- and hypervirulent TEV strains have shown that the outcome of competition is driven by differences in replication rate. A simple mathematical model has been developed to analyze the dynamics of these two strains during coinfection. The model qualitatively reproduced the experimental results using biologically meaningful parameters. Further analyses of the model also revealed a wide parametric region in which a low-fitness but hypovirulent virus can still outcompete a high-fitness but hypervirulent one. These results provide additional support to the observation that virulence and within-host replication may not necessarily be strongly tied in plant RNA viruses

The economics of Theocracy

This paper models theocracy as a regime where the clergy in power retains knowledge of the cost of political production but which is potentially incompetent or corrupt. This is contrasted with a secular regime where government is contracted out to a secular ruler, and hence the church loses the possibility to observe costs and creates for itself a hidden-information agency problem. The church is free to choose between regimes – a make-or-buy choice – and we look for the range of environmental parameters that are most conducive to the superiority of theocracy and therefore to its occurrence and persistence, despite its disabilities. Numerical solution of the model indicates that the optimal environment for a theocracy is likely to be one in which the “bad” (high-cost) state is disastrously bad but the probability of its occurrence is not very high. A broad review of the historical evidence yields some suggestive support to the predictions of the model. Finally, the model is shown to be applicable to the make-or-buy-government choices of other groups, such as organized labor and the military

The predictive validity of three self-report screening instruments for identifying frail older people in the community

Background: If brief and easy to use self report screening tools are available to identify frail elderly, this may avoid costs and unnecessary assessment of healthy people. This study investigates the predictive validity of three self-report instruments for identifying community-dwelling frail elderly. Methods: This is a prospective study with 1-year follow-up among community-dwelling elderly aged 70 or older (n = 430) to test sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predicted values of the Groningen Frailty Indicator, Tilburg Frailty Indicator and Sherbrooke Postal Questionnaire on development of disabilities, hospital admission and mortality. Odds ratios were calculated to compare frail versus non-frail groups for their risk for the adverse outcomes. Results: Adjusted odds ratios show that those identified as frail have more than twice the risk (GFI, 2.62; TFI, 2.00; SPQ, 2,49) for developing disabilities compared to the non-frail group; those identified as frail by the TFI and SPQ have more than twice the risk of being admitted to a hospital. Sensitivity and specificity for development of disabilities are 71% and 63% (GFI), 62% and 71% (TFI) and 83% and 48% (SPQ). Regarding mortality, sensitivity for all tools are about 70% and specificity between 41% and 61%. For hospital admission, SPQ scores the highest for sensitivity (76%). Conclusion: All three instruments do have potential to identify older persons at risk, but their predictive power is not sufficient yet. Further research on these and other instruments is needed to improve targeting frail elderly