Improving rainfall nowcasting and urban runoff forecasting through dynamic radar-raingauge rainfall adjustment

The insufficient accuracy of radar rainfall estimates is a major source of uncertainty in short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and associated urban flood forecasts. This study looks at the possibility of improving QPFs and urban runoff forecasts through the dynamic adjustment of radar rainfall estimates based on raingauge measurements. Two commonly used techniques (Kriging with External Drift (KED) and mean field bias correction) were used to adjust radar rainfall estimates for a large area of the UK (250,000 km2) based on raingauge data. QPFs were produced using original radar and adjusted rainfall estimates as input to a nowcasting algorithm. Runoff forecasts were generated by feeding the different QPFs into the storm water drainage model of an urban catchment in London. The performance of the adjusted precipitation estimates and the associated forecasts was tested using local rainfall and flow records. The results show that adjustments done at too large scales cannot provide tangible improvements in rainfall estimates and associated QPFs and runoff forecasts at small scales, such as those of urban catchments. Moreover, the results suggest that the KED adjusted rainfall estimates may be unsuitable for generating QPFs, as this method damages the continuity of spatial structures between consecutive rainfall fields

Quantum spin liquid states in the two dimensional kagome antiferromagnets, ZnxCu4-x(OD)6Cl2

A three-dimensional system of interacting spins typically develops static long-range order when it is cooled. If the spins are quantum (S = 1/2), however, novel quantum paramagnetic states may appear. The most highly sought state among them is the resonating valence bond (RVB) state in which every pair of neighboring quantum spins form entangled spin singlets (valence bonds) and the singlets are quantum mechanically resonating amongst all the possible highly degenerate pairing states. Here we provide experimental evidence for such quantum paramagnetic states existing in frustrated antiferromagnets, ZnxCu4-x(OD)6Cl2, where the S = 1/2 magnetic Cu2+ moments form layers of a two-dimensional kagome lattice. We find that in Cu4(OD)6Cl2, where distorted kagome planes are weakly coupled to each other, a dispersionless excitation mode appears in the magnetic excitation spectrum below ~ 20 K, whose characteristics resemble those of quantum spin singlets in a solid state, known as a valence bond solid (VBS), that breaks translational symmetry. Doping nonmagnetic Zn2+ ions reduces the distortion of the kagome lattice, and weakens the interplane coupling but also dilutes the magnetic occupancy of the kagome lattice. The VBS state is suppressed and for ZnCu3(OD)6Cl2 where the kagome planes are undistorted and 90% occupied by the Cu2+ ions, the low energy spin fluctuations in the spin liquid phase become featureless

Entropy production, viscosity bounds and bumpy black holes

The ratio of shear viscosity to entropy density, η/s, is computed in various holographic geometries that break translation invariance (but are isotropic). The shear viscosity does not have a hydrodynamic interpretation in such backgrounds, but does quantify the rate of entropy production due to a strain. Fluctuations of the metric components δg xy are massive about these backgrounds, leading to η/s < 1/(4π) at all finite temperatures (even in Einstein gravity). As the temperature is taken to zero, different behaviors are possible. If translation symmetry breaking is irrelevant in the far IR, then η/s tends to a constant at T = 0. This constant can be parametrically small. If the translation symmetry is broken in the far IR (which nonetheless develops emergent scale invariance), then η/s ∼ T 2 ν as T → 0, with ν ≤ 1 in all cases we have considered. While these results violate simple bounds on η/s, we note that they are consistent with a possible bound on the rate of entropy production due to strain

Emergent scale invariance of disordered horizons

We construct planar black hole solutions in AdS 3 and AdS 4 in which the boundary CFT is perturbed by marginally relevant quenched disorder. We show that the entropy density of the horizon has the scaling temperature dependence s ∼ T (d−1)/z (with d = 2, 3). The dynamical critical exponent z is computed numerically and, at weak disorder, analytically. These results lend support to the claim that the perturbed CFT flows to a disordered quantum critical theory in the IR

Thermal conductivity at a disordered quantum critical point

© 2016, The Author(s). Abstract: Strongly disordered and strongly interacting quantum critical points are difficult to access with conventional field theoretic methods. They are, however, both experimentally important and theoretically interesting. In particular, they are expected to realize universal incoherent transport. Such disordered quantum critical theories have recently been constructed holographically by deforming a CFT by marginally relevant disorder. In this paper we find additional disordered fixed points via relevant disordered deformations of a holographic CFT. Using recently developed methods in holographic transport, we characterize the thermal conductivity in both sets of theories in 1+1 dimensions. The thermal conductivity is found to tend to a constant at low temperatures in one class of fixed points, and to scale as T0.3 in the other. Furthermore, in all cases the thermal conductivity exhibits discrete scale invariance, with logarithmic in temperature oscillations superimposed on the low temperature scaling behavior. At no point do we use the replica trick

CLEC-2 and Syk in the megakaryocytic/platelet lineage are essential for development

The C-type lectin receptor CLEC-2 signals through a pathway that is critically dependent on the tyrosine kinase Syk. We show that homozygous loss of either protein results in defects in brain vascular and lymphatic development, lung inflation and perinatal lethality. Furthermore, we find that conditional deletion of Syk in the haematopoietic lineage, or conditional deletion of CLEC-2 or Syk in the megakaryocyte/platelet lineage, also causes defects in brain vascular and lymphatic development, although the mice are viable. In contrast, conditional deletion of Syk in other haematopoietic lineages had no effect on viability or brain vasculature and lymphatic development. We show that platelets, but not platelet releasate, modulate the migration and intercellular adhesion of lymphatic endothelial cells through a pathway that is dependent on CLEC-2 and Syk. These studies demonstrate that megakaryocyte/platelet expression of CLEC-2 and Syk is required for normal brain vasculature and lymphatic development and that platelet CLEC-2 and Syk directly modulate lymphatic endothelial cell behaviour in vitro

Topology by Design in Magnetic nano-Materials: Artificial Spin Ice

Artificial Spin Ices are two dimensional arrays of magnetic, interacting nano-structures whose geometry can be chosen at will, and whose elementary degrees of freedom can be characterized directly. They were introduced at first to study frustration in a controllable setting, to mimic the behavior of spin ice rare earth pyrochlores, but at more useful temperature and field ranges and with direct characterization, and to provide practical implementation to celebrated, exactly solvable models of statistical mechanics previously devised to gain an understanding of degenerate ensembles with residual entropy. With the evolution of nano--fabrication and of experimental protocols it is now possible to characterize the material in real-time, real-space, and to realize virtually any geometry, for direct control over the collective dynamics. This has recently opened a path toward the deliberate design of novel, exotic states, not found in natural materials, and often characterized by topological properties. Without any pretense of exhaustiveness, we will provide an introduction to the material, the early works, and then, by reporting on more recent results, we will proceed to describe the new direction, which includes the design of desired topological states and their implications to kinetics.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figures, 116 references, Book Chapte

Search for CP violation in D0 and D+ decays

A high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS (E831) experiment at Fermilab has been used to search for CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay modes D+ to K-K+pi+, D0 to K-K+ and D0 to pi-pi+. We have measured the following CP asymmetry parameters: A_CP(K-K+pi+) = +0.006 +/- 0.011 +/- 0.005, A_CP(K-K+) = -0.001 +/- 0.022 +/- 0.015 and A_CP(pi-pi+) = +0.048 +/- 0.039 +/- 0.025 where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic. These asymmetries are consistent with zero with smaller errors than previous measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Horizontal DNA transfer mechanisms of bacteria as weapons of intragenomic conflict

Horizontal DNA transfer (HDT) is a pervasive mechanism of diversification in many microbial species, but its primary evolutionary role remains controversial. Much recent research has emphasised the adaptive benefit of acquiring novel DNA, but here we argue instead that intragenomic conflict provides a coherent framework for understanding the evolutionary origins of HDT. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of a clonally descended bacterial population undergoing HDT through transmission of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and genetic transformation. Including the known bias of transformation toward the acquisition of shorter alleles into the model suggested it could be an effective means of counteracting the spread of MGEs. Both constitutive and transient competence for transformation were found to provide an effective defence against parasitic MGEs; transient competence could also be effective at permitting the selective spread of MGEs conferring a benefit on their host bacterium. The coordination of transient competence with cell-cell killing, observed in multiple species, was found to result in synergistic blocking of MGE transmission through releasing genomic DNA for homologous recombination while simultaneously reducing horizontal MGE spread by lowering the local cell density. To evaluate the feasibility of the functions suggested by the modelling analysis, we analysed genomic data from longitudinal sampling of individuals carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae. This revealed the frequent within-host coexistence of clonally descended cells that differed in their MGE infection status, a necessary condition for the proposed mechanism to operate. Additionally, we found multiple examples of MGEs inhibiting transformation through integrative disruption of genes encoding the competence machinery across many species, providing evidence of an ongoing "arms race." Reduced rates of transformation have also been observed in cells infected by MGEs that reduce the concentration of extracellular DNA through secretion of DNases. Simulations predicted that either mechanism of limiting transformation would benefit individual MGEs, but also that this tactic's effectiveness was limited by competition with other MGEs coinfecting the same cell. A further observed behaviour we hypothesised to reduce elimination by transformation was MGE activation when cells become competent. Our model predicted that this response was effective at counteracting transformation independently of competing MGEs. Therefore, this framework is able to explain both common properties of MGEs, and the seemingly paradoxical bacterial behaviours of transformation and cell-cell killing within clonally related populations, as the consequences of intragenomic conflict between self-replicating chromosomes and parasitic MGEs. The antagonistic nature of the different mechanisms of HDT over short timescales means their contribution to bacterial evolution is likely to be substantially greater than previously appreciated