Stationarity and geometric ergodicity of a class of nonlinear ARCH models

A class of nonlinear ARCH processes is introduced and studied. The existence of a strictly stationary and $\beta$-mixing solution is established under a mild assumption on the density of the underlying independent process. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of moments. The analysis relies on Markov chain theory. The model generalizes some important features of standard ARCH models and is amenable to further analysis.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000565 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Pooling, meta-analysis, and the evaluation of drug safety

BACKGROUND: The "integrated safety report" of the drug registration files submitted to health authorities usually summarizes the rates of adverse events observed for a new drug, placebo or active control drugs by pooling the safety data across the trials. Pooling consists of adding the numbers of events observed in a given treatment group across the trials and dividing the results by the total number of patients included in this group. Because it considers treatment groups rather than studies, pooling ignores validity of the comparisons and is subject to a particular kind of bias, termed "Simpson's paradox." In contrast, meta-analysis and other stratified analyses are less susceptible to bias. METHODS: We use a hypothetical, but not atypical, application to demonstrate that the results of a meta-analysis can differ greatly from those obtained by pooling the same data. In our hypothetical model, a new drug is compared to 1) a placebo in 4 relatively small trials in patients at high risk for a certain adverse event and 2) an active reference drug in 2 larger trials of patients at low risk for this event. RESULTS: Using meta-analysis, the relative risk of experiencing the adverse event with the new drug was 1.78 (95% confidence interval [1.02; 3.12]) compared to placebo and 2.20 [0.76; 6.32] compared to active control. By pooling the data, the results were, respectively, 1.00 [0.59; 1.70] and 5.20 [2.07; 13.08]. CONCLUSIONS: Because these findings could mislead health authorities and doctors, regulatory agencies should require meta-analyses or stratified analyses of safety data in drug registration files

Stump closure reinforcement with absorbable fibrin collagen sealant sponge (TachoSil®) does not prevent pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy: the FIABLE* multicenter controlled randomized study

International audienceBackground - The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of TachoSil sponge on distal pancreatectomy remnant stump in reducing the rate and severity of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Methods - All consecutive patients requiring distal pancreatectomy were randomized in 45 centers. The principal end point was onset of "clinically relevant" POPF. Univariate and multivariate analyses were searched for predictive factors. Results - Of the 270 patients randomized (134 with TachoSil; 136 without), 150 (55.6%) patients sustained a POPF [74 clinically relevant and 76 clinically silent (27.4% and 28.1%), respectively]: no statistically significant difference was found between patients sustaining clinically relevant POPF [41 (30.6%) with vs 33 (24.3%) without TachoSil (P = .276)], or overall POPF [73 (54.5%) with vs 77 (56.6%) without TachoSil, (P = .807)], but there were more clinically relevant POPF after hand-sewn (32.3%) versus mechanical closure (19.8%) (P = .025) and, in case of splenic preservation, after splenic vessel ligation (15/32, 46.9%) versus vascular preservation (17/72, 23.6%) (P = .024). Hand-sewn pancreatic remnant closure (P = .023) and splenic vessel ligation in splenic preservation (P = .035) were independent predictive factors for the onset of clinically relevant POPF. Conclusion - TachoSil sponge reinforcement of the proximal remnant after distal pancreatectomy reduced neither the rate nor the severity of POPF

Enhancing impact: visualization of an integrated impact assessment strategy

The environmental impact assessment process is over 40 years old and has dramatically expanded. Topics, such as social, health and human rights impact are now included. The main body of an impact analysis is generally hundreds of pages long and supported by countless technical appendices. For large, oil/gas, mining and water resources projects both the volume and technical sophistication of the reports has far exceeded the processing ability of host communities. Instead of informing and empowering, the reports are abstruse and overwhelming. Reinvention is required. The development of a visual integrated impact assessment strategy that utilizes remote sensing and spatial analyses is describe

Nuclear mRNA Degradation Pathway(s) Are Implicated in Xist Regulation and X Chromosome Inactivation

A critical step in X-chromosome inactivation (XCI), which results in the dosage compensation of X-linked gene expression in mammals, is the coating of the presumptive inactive X chromosome by the large noncoding Xist RNA, which then leads to the recruitment of other factors essential for the heterochromatinisation of the inactive X and its transcriptional silencing. In an approach aimed at identifying genes implicated in the X-inactivation process by comparative transcriptional profiling of female and male mouse gastrula, we identified the Eif1 gene involved in translation initiation and RNA degradation. We show here that female embryonic stem cell lines, silenced by RNA interference for the Eif1 gene, are unable to form Xist RNA domains upon differentiation and fail to undergo X-inactivation. To probe further an effect involving RNA degradation pathways, the inhibition by RNA interference of Rent1, a factor essential for nonsense-mediated decay and Exosc10, a specific nuclear component of the exosome, was analysed and shown to similarly impair Xist upregulation and XCI. In Eif1-, Rent1-, and Exosc10-interfered clones, Xist spliced form(s) are strongly downregulated, while the levels of unspliced form(s) of Xist and the stability of Xist RNA remain comparable to that of the control cell lines. Our data suggests a role for mRNA nuclear degradation pathways in the critical regulation of spliced Xist mRNA levels and the onset of the X-inactivation process

Statistical Laws Governing Fluctuations in Word Use from Word Birth to Word Death

We analyze the dynamic properties of 10^7 words recorded in English, Spanish and Hebrew over the period 1800--2008 in order to gain insight into the coevolution of language and culture. We report language independent patterns useful as benchmarks for theoretical models of language evolution. A significantly decreasing (increasing) trend in the birth (death) rate of words indicates a recent shift in the selection laws governing word use. For new words, we observe a peak in the growth-rate fluctuations around 40 years after introduction, consistent with the typical entry time into standard dictionaries and the human generational timescale. Pronounced changes in the dynamics of language during periods of war shows that word correlations, occurring across time and between words, are largely influenced by coevolutionary social, technological, and political factors. We quantify cultural memory by analyzing the long-term correlations in the use of individual words using detrended fluctuation analysis.Comment: Version 1: 31 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables. Version 2 is streamlined, eliminates substantial material and incorporates referee comments: 19 pages, 14 figures, 3 table

B Cells Regulate Neutrophilia during Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection and BCG Vaccination by Modulating the Interleukin-17 Response

We have previously demonstrated that B cells can shape the immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, including the level of neutrophil infiltration and granulomatous inflammation at the site of infection. The present study examined the mechanisms by which B cells regulate the host neutrophilic response upon exposure to mycobacteria and how neutrophilia may influence vaccine efficacy. To address these questions, a murine aerosol infection tuberculosis (TB) model and an intradermal (ID) ear BCG immunization mouse model, involving both the μMT strain and B cell-depleted C57BL/6 mice, were used. IL (interleukin)-17 neutralization and neutrophil depletion experiments using these systems provide evidence that B cells can regulate neutrophilia by modulating the IL-17 response during M. tuberculosis infection and BCG immunization. Exuberant neutrophilia at the site of immunization in B cell-deficient mice adversely affects dendritic cell (DC) migration to the draining lymph nodes and attenuates the development of the vaccine-induced Th1 response. The results suggest that B cells are required for the development of optimal protective anti-TB immunity upon BCG vaccination by regulating the IL-17/neutrophilic response. Administration of sera derived from M. tuberculosis-infected C57BL/6 wild-type mice reverses the lung neutrophilia phenotype in tuberculous μMT mice. Together, these observations provide insight into the mechanisms by which B cells and humoral immunity modulate vaccine-induced Th1 response and regulate neutrophila during M. tuberculosis infection and BCG immunization. © 2013 Kozakiewicz et al

An international comparative study of blood pressure in populations of European vs. African descent

Background: The consistent finding of higher prevalence of hypertension in US blacks compared to whites has led to speculation that African-origin populations are particularly susceptible to this condition. Large surveys now provide new information on this issue. Methods: Using a standardized analysis strategy we examined prevalence estimates for 8 white and 3 black populations (N = 85,000 participants). Results: The range in hypertension prevalence was from 27 to 55% for whites and 14 to 44% for blacks. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that not only is there a wide variation in hypertension prevalence among both racial groups, the rates among blacks are not unusually high when viewed internationally. These data suggest that the impact of environmental factors among both populations may have been under-appreciated

Susceptibility of hamsters to clostridium difficile isolates of differing toxinotype

Clostridium difficile is the most commonly associated cause of antibiotic associated disease (AAD), which caused ~21,000 cases of AAD in 2011 in the U.K. alone. The golden Syrian hamster model of CDI is an acute model displaying many of the clinical features of C. difficile disease. Using this model we characterised three clinical strains of C. difficile, all differing in toxinotype; CD1342 (PaLoc negative), M68 (toxinotype VIII) and BI-7 (toxinotype III). The naturally occurring non-toxic strain colonised all hamsters within 1-day post challenge (d.p.c.) with high-levels of spores being shed in the faeces of animals that appeared well throughout the entire experiment. However, some changes including increased neutrophil influx and unclotted red blood cells were observed at early time points despite the fact that the known C. difficile toxins (TcdA, TcdB and CDT) are absent from the genome. In contrast, hamsters challenged with strain M68 resulted in a 45% mortality rate, with those that survived challenge remaining highly colonised. It is currently unclear why some hamsters survive infection, as bacterial and toxin levels and histology scores were similar to those culled at a similar time-point. Hamsters challenged with strain BI-7 resulted in a rapid fatal infection in 100% of the hamsters approximately 26 hr post challenge. Severe caecal pathology, including transmural neutrophil infiltrates and extensive submucosal damage correlated with high levels of toxin measured in gut filtrates ex vivo. These data describes the infection kinetics and disease outcomes of 3 clinical C. difficile isolates differing in toxin carriage and provides additional insights to the role of each toxin in disease progression

A fast algorithm for estimating transmission probabilities in QTL detection designs with dense maps

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the case of an autosomal locus, four transmission events from the parents to progeny are possible, specified by the grand parental origin of the alleles inherited by this individual. Computing the probabilities of these transmission events is essential to perform QTL detection methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A fast algorithm for the estimation of these probabilities conditional to parental phases has been developed. It is adapted to classical QTL detection designs applied to outbred populations, in particular to designs composed of half and/or full sib families. It assumes the absence of interference.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The theory is fully developed and an example is given.</p