USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015

How to Group Market Participants? Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior

Using a generalized mixture model, we model individual heterogeneity by identifying groups of participants that respond in a similar manner to the determinants of economic behavior. The procedure emphasizes the role of theory as the determinants of behavior are used to simultaneously explain market activities and to discriminate among groups of market participants. We show the appealing properties of this modeling approach by comparing it with two often used grouping methods in an empirical study in which we estimate the factors affecting market participants¿ hedging behavior

PAPPA: Primordial Anisotropy Polarization Pathfinder Array

The Primordial Anisotropy Polarization Pathfinder Array (PAPPA) is a balloon-based instrument to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background and search for the signal from gravity waves excited during an inflationary epoch in the early universe. PAPPA will survey a 20 x 20 deg patch at the North Celestial Pole using 32 pixels in 3 passbands centered at 89, 212, and 302 GHz. Each pixel uses MEMS switches in a superconducting microstrip transmission line to combine the phase modulation techniques used in radio astronomy with the sensitivity of transition-edge superconducting bolometers. Each switched circuit modulates the incident polarization on a single detector, allowing nearly instantaneous characterization of the Stokes I, Q, and U parameters. We describe the instrument design and status.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures. Proceedings of the Fundamental Physics With CMB workshop, UC Irvine, March 23-25, 2006, to be published in New Astronomy Review

A Compact Beam Stop for a Rare Kaon Decay Experiment

We describe the development and testing of a novel beam stop for use in a rare kaon decay experiment at the Brookhaven AGS. The beam stop is located inside a dipole spectrometer magnet in close proximity to straw drift chambers and intercepts a high-intensity neutral hadron beam. The design process, involving both Monte Carlo simulations and beam tests of alternative beam-stop shielding arrangements, had the goal of minimizing the leakage of particles from the beam stop and the resulting hit rates in detectors, while preserving maximum acceptance for events of interest. The beam tests consisted of measurements of rates in drift chambers, scintilation counter hodoscopes, a gas threshold Cherenkov counter, and a lead glass array. Measurements were also made with a set of specialized detectors which were sensitive to low-energy neutrons, photons, and charged particles. Comparisons are made between these measurements and a detailed Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: 39 pages, 14 figures, submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Method

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

Erratum: "A Gravitational-wave Measurement of the Hubble Constant Following the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo" (2021, ApJ, 909, 218)

[no abstract available

SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and clinical outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with immune-suppressive disease

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune responses and infection outcomes were evaluated in 2,686 patients with varying immune-suppressive disease states after administration of two Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Overall, 255 of 2,204 (12%) patients failed to develop anti-spike antibodies, with an additional 600 of 2,204 (27%) patients generating low levels (<380 AU ml−1). Vaccine failure rates were highest in ANCA-associated vasculitis on rituximab (21/29, 72%), hemodialysis on immunosuppressive therapy (6/30, 20%) and solid organ transplant recipients (20/81, 25% and 141/458, 31%). SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were detected in 513 of 580 (88%) patients, with lower T cell magnitude or proportion in hemodialysis, allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and liver transplant recipients (versus healthy controls). Humoral responses against Omicron (BA.1) were reduced, although cross-reactive T cell responses were sustained in all participants for whom these data were available. BNT162b2 was associated with higher antibody but lower cellular responses compared to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination. We report 474 SARS-CoV-2 infection episodes, including 48 individuals with hospitalization or death from COVID-19. Decreased magnitude of both the serological and the T cell response was associated with severe COVID-19. Overall, we identified clinical phenotypes that may benefit from targeted COVID-19 therapeutic strategies

Highly-parallelized simulation of a pixelated LArTPC on a GPU

The rapid development of general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU) is allowing the implementation of highly-parallelized Monte Carlo simulation chains for particle physics experiments. This technique is particularly suitable for the simulation of a pixelated charge readout for time projection chambers, given the large number of channels that this technology employs. Here we present the first implementation of a full microphysical simulator of a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) equipped with light readout and pixelated charge readout, developed for the DUNE Near Detector. The software is implemented with an end-to-end set of GPU-optimized algorithms. The algorithms have been written in Python and translated into CUDA kernels using Numba, a just-in-time compiler for a subset of Python and NumPy instructions. The GPU implementation achieves a speed up of four orders of magnitude compared with the equivalent CPU version. The simulation of the current induced on 10^3 pixels takes around 1 ms on the GPU, compared with approximately 10 s on the CPU. The results of the simulation are compared against data from a pixel-readout LArTPC prototype