Chromospheric and photospheric evolution of an extremely active solar region in solar cycle 19

a comprehensive investigation was made of phenomena attending the disk passage, July 7 to 21, 1959, of active solar center HAO-59Q. At the photospheric level that comprised an aggregate of groups of sunspots of which one group, Mt. Wilson 14284, showed all the attributes deemed typical of solar regions associated with the production of major flares. A special characteristic of 59Q was its capability to eject dark material. Part of this material remained trapped in the strong magnetic fields above group 14284 where it formed a system of interrelated arches, the legs of which passed through components of the bright chromospheric network of the plage and were rooted in various underlying umbrae. Two apparently diffeent kinds of flare were identified in 59Q; namely, prominence flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the suspended dark prominence) and plage flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the chromospheric network). Prominence flares were of three varieties described as 'impact', 'stationary' and 'moving' prominence flares. Plage flares were accompanied in 3 percent of cases by Type III bursts. These latter radio events indicate the associated passage through the corona of energetic electrons in the approximate energy range 10 to 100 keV. At least 87.5 percent, and probably all, impulsive brightenings in 59Q began directly above minor spots, many of which satellites to major umbrae. Stationary and moving prominence flares were individually triggered at sites beneath which magnetic changes occurred within intervals which included each flare's flash phase

A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical results obtained through detailed analysis of the available data provided insights into how changing circumstances on the Sun and in interplanetary space can affect the performance of the model. Since shock arrival predictions are widely utilized in making commercially significant decisions re. protecting space assets, the present detailed archival studies can be useful in future operational decision making during solar cycle 24. It would be of added value in this context to use Briggs-Rupert methodology to estimate the cost to an operator of acting on an incorrect forecast

Arrival times of Flare/Halo CME associated shocks at the Earth: comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations

International audienceThe arrival times at L1 of eleven travelling shocks associated both with X-ray flaring and with halo CMEs recorded aboard SOHO/LASCO have been considered. Close to the Sun the velocities of these events were estimated using either Type II radio records or CME speeds. Close to the Earth the shocks were detected in the data of various solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and energetic particle experiments aboard SOHO, ACE, WIND, INTERBALL-1 and IMP-8. The real-time shock arrival predictions of three numerical models, namely the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA), the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAFv.2) were tested against these observations. This is the first time that energetic protons (tens of keV to a few MeV) have been used to complement plasma and IMF data in validating shock propagation models. The models were all generally successful in predicting shock arrivals. STOA provided the smallest values of the "predicted minus measured" arrival times and displayed a typical predictive precision better than about 8 h. The ratio of the calculated standard deviation of the transit times to Earth to the standard deviation of the measurements was estimated for each model (treating interacting events as composite shocks) and these ratios turned out to be 0.60, 1.15 and 1.02 for STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2, respectively. If an event in the sample for which the shock velocity was not well known is omitted from consideration, these ratios become 0.36, 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. Larger statistical samples should now be tested. The ratio of the in situ shock velocity and the "Sun to L1" transit velocity (Vsh /Vtr) was in the range of 0.7?0.9 for individual, non-interacting, shock events. HAFv.2 uniquely provided information on those changes in the COBpoint (the moving Connection point on the shock along the IMF to the OBserver) which directly influenced energetic particle rise times. This model also illustrated the non-uniform upstream conditions through which the various shocks propagated; furthermore it simulated shock deformation on a scale of fractions of an AU. On the spatial scale (300 RE ), where near-Earth spacecraft are located, the passing shocks, in conformity with the models, were found to be locally planar. The shocks also showed tilting relative to the Sun-Earth line, probably reflecting the inherent directionality associated with their solar origin. Key words. Interplanetary physics (energetic particles; interplanetary shocks; solar wind plasma

Investigating Mercury's Environment with the Two-Spacecraft BepiColombo Mission

The ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission will provide simultaneous measurements from two spacecraft, offering an unprecedented opportunity to investigate magnetospheric and exospheric dynamics at Mercury as well as their interactions with the solar wind, radiation, and interplanetary dust. Many scientific instruments onboard the two spacecraft will be completely, or partially devoted to study the near-space environment of Mercury as well as the complex processes that govern it. Many issues remain unsolved even after the MESSENGER mission that ended in 2015. The specific orbits of the two spacecraft, MPO and Mio, and the comprehensive scientific payload allow a wider range of scientific questions to be addressed than those that could be achieved by the individual instruments acting alone, or by previous missions. These joint observations are of key importance because many phenomena in Mercury's environment are highly temporally and spatially variable. Examples of possible coordinated observations are described in this article, analysing the required geometrical conditions, pointing, resolutions and operation timing of different BepiColombo instruments sensors.Peer reviewe

Correction to: SERENA: Particle Instrument Suite for Determining the Sun-Mercury Interaction from BepiColombo

International audienc

SERENA:Particle Instrument Suite for Determining the Sun-Mercury Interaction from BepiColombo

International audienceThe ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission to Mercury will provide simultaneous measurements from two spacecraft, offering an unprecedented opportunity to investigate magnetospheric and exospheric particle dynamics at Mercury as well as their interactions with solar wind, solar radiation, and interplanetary dust. The particle instrument suite SERENA (Search for Exospheric Refilling and Emitted Natural Abundances) is flying in space on-board the BepiColombo Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) and is the only instrument for ion and neutral particle detection aboard the MPO. It comprises four independent sensors: ELENA for neutral particle flow detection, Strofio for neutral gas detection, PICAM for planetary ions observations, and MIPA, mostly for solar wind ion measurements. SERENA is managed by a System Control Unit located inside the ELENA box. In the present paper the scientific goals of this suite are described, and then the four units are detailed, as well as their major features and calibration results. Finally, the SERENA operational activities are shown during the orbital path around Mercury, with also some reference to the activities planned during the long cruise phase