Slider-Block Friction Model for Landslides: Application to Vaiont and La Clapiere Landslides

Accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides have been found empirically to follow a time-to-failure power law, corresponding to a finite-time singularity of the velocity $v \sim 1/(t_c-t)$ [{\it Voight}, 1988]. Here, we provide a physical basis for this phenomenological law based on a slider-block model using a state and velocity dependent friction law established in the laboratory and used to model earthquake friction. This physical model accounts for and generalizes Voight's observation: depending on the ratio $B/A$ of two parameters of the rate and state friction law and on the initial frictional state of the sliding surfaces characterized by a reduced parameter $x_i$, four possible regimes are found. Two regimes can account for an acceleration of the displacement. We use the slider-block friction model to analyze quantitatively the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont and La Clapi\`ere. The Vaiont landslide was the catastrophic culmination of an accelerated slope velocity. La Clapi\`ere landslide was characterized by a peak of slope acceleration that followed decades of ongoing accelerating displacements, succeeded by a restabilizing phase. Our inversion of the slider-block model on these data sets shows good fits and suggest to classify the Vaiont (respectively La Clapi\`ere) landslide as belonging to the velocity weakening unstable (respectively strengthening stable) sliding regime.Comment: shortened by focusing of the frictional model, Latex document with AGU style file of 14 pages + 11 figures (1 jpeg photo of figure 6 given separately) + 1 tabl

Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies

In a previous work [Helmstetter, 2003], we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider-block model with a state and velocity dependent friction law. This model predicts two regimes of sliding, stable and unstable leading to a critical finite-time singularity. This model was calibrated quantitatively to the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont (Italian Alps) and La Clapi\`ere (French Alps), showing that the former (resp. later) landslide is in the unstable (resp. stable) sliding regime. Here, we test the predictive skills of the state-and-velocity-dependent model on these two landslides, using a variety of techniques. For the Vaiont landslide, our model provides good predictions of the critical time of failure up to 20 days before the collapse. Tests are also presented on the predictability of the time of the change of regime for la Clapi\`ere landslide.Comment: 30 pages with 12 eps figure

Egalitarian justice and expected value

According to all-luck egalitarianism, the differential distributive effects of both brute luck, which defines the outcome of risks which are not deliberately taken, and option luck, which defines the outcome of deliberate gambles, are unjust. Exactly how to correct the effects of option luck is, however, a complex issue. This article argues that (a) option luck should be neutralized not just by correcting luck among gamblers, but among the community as a whole, because it would be unfair for gamblers as a group to be disadvantaged relative to non-gamblers by bad option luck; (b) individuals should receive the warranted expected results of their gambles, except insofar as individuals blamelessly lacked the ability to ascertain which expectations were warranted; and (c) where societal resources are insufficient to deliver expected results to gamblers, gamblers should receive a lesser distributive share which is in proportion to the expected results. Where all-luck egalitarianism is understood in this way, it allows risk-takers to impose externalities on non-risk-takers, which seems counterintuitive. This may, however, be an advantage as it provides a luck egalitarian rationale for assisting ‘negligent victims’

The promoter polymorphism -232C/G of the PCK1 gene is associated with type 2 diabetes in a UK-resident South Asian population

Background: The PCK1 gene, encoding cytosolic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK-C), has previously been implicated as a candidate gene for type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility. Rodent models demonstrate that over-expression of Pck1 can result in T2D development and a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the promoter region of human PCK1 (-232C/G) has exhibited significant association with the disease in several cohorts. Within the UK-resident South Asian population, T2D is 4 to 6 times more common than in indigenous white Caucasians. Despite this, few studies have reported on the genetic susceptibility to T2D in this ethnic group and none of these has investigated the possible effect of PCK1 variants. We therefore aimed to investigate the association between common variants of the PCK1 gene and T2D in a UK-resident South Asian population of Punjabi ancestry, originating predominantly from the Mirpur area of Azad Kashmir, Pakistan. \ud \ud Methods: We used TaqMan assays to genotype five tagSNPs covering the PCK1 gene, including the -232C/G variant, in 903 subjects with T2D and 471 normoglycaemic controls. \ud \ud Results: Of the variants studied, only the minor allele (G) of the -232C/G SNP demonstrated a significant association with T2D, displaying an OR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03 - 1.42, p = 0.019). \ud \ud Conclusion: This study is the first to investigate the association between variants of the PCK1 gene and T2D in South Asians. Our results suggest that the -232C/G promoter polymorphism confers susceptibility to T2D in this ethnic group. \ud \ud Trial registration: UKADS Trial Registration: ISRCTN38297969

Identifying the favored mutation in a positive selective sweep.

Most approaches that capture signatures of selective sweeps in population genomics data do not identify the specific mutation favored by selection. We present iSAFE (for "integrated selection of allele favored by evolution"), a method that enables researchers to accurately pinpoint the favored mutation in a large region (∼5 Mbp) by using a statistic derived solely from population genetics signals. iSAFE does not require knowledge of demography, the phenotype under selection, or functional annotations of mutations

The Metabochip, a Custom Genotyping Array for Genetic Studies of Metabolic, Cardiovascular, and Anthropometric Traits

PMCID: PMC3410907This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Genome skimming elucidates the evolutionary history of Octopoda

Phylogenies for Octopoda have, until now, been based on morphological characters or a few genes. Here we provide the complete mitogenomes and the nuclear 18S and 28S ribosomal genes of twenty Octopoda specimens, comprising 18 species of Cirrata and Incirrata, representing 13 genera and all five putative families of Cirrata (Cirroctopodidae, Cirroteuthidae, Grimpoteuthidae, Opisthoteuthidae and Stauroteuthidae) and six families of Incirrata (Amphitretidae, Argonautidae, Bathypolypodidae, Eledonidae, Enteroctopodidae, and Megaleledonidae) which were assembled using genome skimming. Phylogenetic trees were built using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference with several alignment matrices. All mitochondrial genomes had the ‘typical’ genome composition and gene order previously reported for octopodiforms, except Bathypolypus ergasticus, which appears to lack ND5, two tRNA genes that flank ND5 and two other tRNA genes. Argonautoidea was revealed as sister to Octopodidae by the mitochondrial protein-coding gene dataset, however, it was recovered as sister to all other incirrate octopods with strong support in an analysis using nuclear rRNA genes. Within Cirrata, our study supports two existing classifications suggesting neither is likely in conflict with the true evolutionary history of the suborder. Genome skimming is useful in the analysis of phylogenetic relationships within Octopoda; inclusion of both mitochondrial and nuclear data may be key

Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder

We discover a qualitatively new behavior for systems where the load transfer has limiting stress amplification as in real fiber composites. We find that the disorder is a relevant field leading to tri--criticality, separating a first-order regime where rupture occurs without significant precursors from a second-order regime where the macroscopic elastic coefficient exhibit power law behavior. Our results are based on analytical analysis of fiber bundle models and numerical simulations of a two-dimensional tensorial spring-block system in which stick-slip motion and fracture compete.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 4 figures available upon reques

Microevolution of Helicobacter pylori during prolonged infection of single hosts and within families

Our understanding of basic evolutionary processes in bacteria is still very limited. For example, multiple recent dating estimates are based on a universal inter-species molecular clock rate, but that rate was calibrated using estimates of geological dates that are no longer accepted. We therefore estimated the short-term rates of mutation and recombination in Helicobacter pylori by sequencing an average of 39,300 bp in 78 gene fragments from 97 isolates. These isolates included 34 pairs of sequential samples, which were sampled at intervals of 0.25 to 10.2 years. They also included single isolates from 29 individuals (average age: 45 years) from 10 families. The accumulation of sequence diversity increased with time of separation in a clock-like manner in the sequential isolates. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate the rates of mutation, recombination, mean length of recombination tracts, and average diversity in those tracts. The estimates indicate that the short-term mutation rate is 1.4×10−6 (serial isolates) to 4.5×10−6 (family isolates) per nucleotide per year and that three times as many substitutions are introduced by recombination as by mutation. The long-term mutation rate over millennia is 5–17-fold lower, partly due to the removal of non-synonymous mutations due to purifying selection. Comparisons with the recent literature show that short-term mutation rates vary dramatically in different bacterial species and can span a range of several orders of magnitude