The role of correlation dynamics in sector allocation

This paper assesses the economic value of modeling conditional correlations for mean–variance portfolio optimization. Using sector returns in three major markets we show that the predictability of models describing empirical regularities in correlations such as time-variation, asymmetry and structural breaks leads to significant performance gains over the static covariance strategy. Investors would be willing to pay a fee of up to 983 basis points to switch from the static to the dynamic correlation portfolio and about 100 basis points more for capturing asymmetries and shifts in correlations. The gains are robust to the crisis, transaction costs and are most pronounced for monthly rebalancing

Return and Volatility Spillover among Banks and Insurers: Evidence from Pre-Crisis and Crisis Periods

We investigate the return and volatility interdependencies among the US, the UK, the EU, and Japanese banks and insurers during the period of 2003 to 2009. We find strong return and volatility transmissions within and across banking and insurance industries, strengthened contagious spillover effects during the crisis of 2007 to 2009, and a leading role played by the US financial institutions as information providers in global markets. Furthermore, we find that firm characteristics such as size and leverage drive the interdependencies among major banking firms. Our findings have important implications for effective hedging and diversification strategies, asset pricing and risk management, and the formulation of regulatory and monetary policies

Banks’ equity performance and the term structure of interest rates

Using an extensive global sample, this paper investigates the impact of the term structure of interest rates on bank equity returns. Decomposing the yield curve to its three constituents (level, slope and curvature), the paper evaluates the time-varying sensitivity of the bank’s equity returns to these constituents by using a diagonal dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH framework. Evidence reveals that the empirical proxies for the three factors explain the variations in equity returns above and beyond the market-wide effect. More specifically, shocks to the long-term (level) and short-term (slope) factors have a statistically significant impact on equity returns, while those on the medium-term (curvature) factor are less clear-cut. Bank size plays an important role in the sense that exposures are higher for SIFIs and large banks compared to medium and small banks. Moreover, banks exhibit greater sensitivities to all risk factors during the crisis and postcrisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period; though these sensitivities do not differ for market-oriented and bank-oriented financial systems

On intellectual capital efficiency and shariah governance in Islamic banking business model

This paper empirically investigates whether intellectual capital (IC) and shariah governance jointly affect the economic performance of Islamic banks (IBs). In contrast to prior research, this paper disaggregate IC and corporate governance features and examine whether the two are jointly related to economic performance. These relationships are further explored before, during and after the financial crisis based on a sample of 64 Islamic banks operating in different regions during the period 2007–2014. The required data to calculate different constituents of IC efficiency and governance mechanism is hand collected from 512 annual reports. After controlling for other corporate governance and bank‐specific characteristics (operational type, bank size, listing status, risk, type of auditor, accounting standard and region), we find both intellectual capital efficiency and shariah governance proxies (size and dominance of prominent scholars of shariah supervisory board) to have a significant positive relationship with accounting measure of performance. However, based on market performance measure, only one proxy for shariah governance mechanism, that is, prominent scholars on SSB, is found to be significant but in the negative direction. These results provide important insights into the relationship between IC efficiency, corporate governance and performance in Islamic banking business model and have policy and practical implications

Does R&D, human capital and FDI matter for TFP in OECD countries?

This study investigates the interplay between research and development (R&D), human capital (HC), foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) in OECD countries. We divide the sample into two sub-groups; the European and the non-European states so as to account for underlying country heterogeneity. The analysis follows a panel data approach over the period 1995–2015, taking into account the modelling on non-stationarity, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics with a panel VAR. Both R&D and HC have a positive effect on TFP, whilst FDI has a positive and significant effect only in the case of non-European countries. Moreover, the contribution of R&D is higher than that of HC and FDI in all cases. Thus, based on these findings, policymakers should design and implement policies to increase resources invested in R&D, with a consistent ongoing spending review, to attract foreign direct investment, especially for the majority of the European and some of the non-European countries and to improve education system on a more productive innovation and research base

The Inter-temporal relationship between Risk, Capital and Efficiency: The case of Islamic and conventional banks

The paper investigates the relationship between risk, capital and efficiency for Islamic and conventional banks using a dataset spanning 14 countries over the 2000-2012 period. We use the z-score as a proxy for insolvency risk, cost efficiency is estimated via a stochastic frontier approach and capitalisation is reflected on the equity to assets ratio. An array of bank-specific, macroeconomic and market structure variables are used in a system of three equations, estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique. We find that the capitalisation response to increases in insolvency risk is more pronounced for Islamic banks but has an approximately five-times smaller effect on risk mitigation compared to conventional banks. Higher cost efficiency is related to lower risk for conventional banks, but the opposite is true for Islamic banks. The link between cost efficiency and capitalisation attests to a substitutional effect for the case of conventional banks, but a complementary effect for Islamic banks. Our findings give new insights on the use of efficiency to gauge capital requirements for financial institutions and are particularly relevant for regulators and policy makers in countries where both bank types operate

Long-Term Trends and Short-Run Dynamics in International Stock Markets

The objective of the present study is to examine the behaviour and interaction of international stock markets. The validity of an earnings based valuation model is assessed using data from seventeen developed countries around the world over the last sixteen years. The estimation process employed involves a two–step Engel–Granger procedure where cointegrating relationships between market indices and their fundamentals are analysed. Cointegration appears mainly in large markets, while the presence of an error correction representation implies the existence of the reversion force towards the fair value obtained from the cointegrating regression. Further, the error correction model, enriched with other variables identified in previous research, seems to capture the short–run dynamics quite well. The coefficients of the variables in both the cointegrating regression and the error correction representation have the correct signs and are consistent in size. Granger causality tests do not particularly support the hypothesis that smaller markets are being influenced by external factors, since causality seems to run both from large to small markets and vice versa.International markets, Market indices, Cointegration, Error correction model, Short–run dynamics, Causality.

The Pricing Of Risk Factors And The UK Insurance Stocks' Performance A Nonlinear Multivariate Approach

The objective of the present study is to examine the impact of exchange and interest rate changes on the common stock returns of the insurance companies in the UK. All general and life insurance firms listed in the London Stock Exchange are selected for this purpose. An augmented market model with the additional variables of the interest and exchange rate indices is employed to test both the pricing question and the factor sensitivity of the particular sample. A seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) multivariate estimation with both cross–equation restrictions and within equation nonlinear constraints on the parameters is employed. This method eliminates the errors in variable (EIV) problem and the estimates are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal even without the assumption of normally distributed errors. The two main implications of this investigation are as follows. First both kinds of insurance companies are negatively and equally affected by unanticipated changes in interest rates. Second the changes in exchange rates seem to inversely affect the general insurance companies, while the life insurance firms seem to be insensitive.Insurance stock returns, Interest and exchange rates, APT, Kalman filter, Nonlinear SURE modelling.