Detection and predictive modeling of chaos in finite hydrological time series

International audienceThe ability to detect the chaotic signal from a finite time series observation of hydrologic systems is addressed in this paper. The presence of random and seasonal components in hydrological time series, like rainfall or runoff, makes the detection process challenging. Tests with simulated data demonstrate the presence of thresholds, in terms of noise to chaotic-signal and seasonality to chaotic-signal ratios, beyond which the set of currently available tools is not able to detect the chaotic component. The investigations also indicate that the decomposition of a simulated time series into the corresponding random, seasonal and chaotic components is possible from finite data. Real streamflow data from the Arkansas and Colorado rivers are used to validate these results. Neither of the raw time series exhibits chaos. While a chaotic component can be extracted from the Arkansas data, such a component is either not present or can not be extracted from the Colorado data. This indicates that real hydrologic data may or may not have a detectable chaotic component. The strengths and limitations of the existing set of tools for the detection and modeling of chaos are also studied

The Effect of Sacral Neuromodulation on Anticholinergic Use and Expenditures in a Privately Insured Population

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106102/1/ner12062.pd

Nationally representative trends and geographic variation in treatment of localized prostate cancer: the Urologic Diseases in America project

BACKGROUND: Several treatment options for clinically localized prostate cancer currently exist under the established guidelines. We aim to assess nationally representative trends in treatment over time and determine potential geographic variation using two large national claims registries. METHODS: Men with prostate cancer insured by Medicare (1998-2006) or a private insurer (Ingenix database, 2002-2006) were identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 and Current Procedural Terminology-4 codes. Geographic variation and trends in the type of treatment utilized over time were assessed. Geographic data were mapped using the GeoCommons online mapping platform. Predictors of any treatment were determined using a hierarchical generalized linear mixed model using the logit link function. RESULTS: The use of radical prostatectomy increased, 33-48%, in the privately insured i3 database while remaining stable at 12% in the Medicare population. There was a rapid uptake in the use of newer technologies over time in both the Medicare and i3 cohorts. The use of laparoscopic-assisted prostatectomy increased from 1% in 2002 to 41% in 2006 in i3 patients, whereas the incidence increased from 3% in 2002 to 35% in 2006 for Medicare patients. The use of neoadjuvant/adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy was lower in the i3 cohort and has decreased over time in both i3 and Medicare. Physician density had an impact on the type of primary treatment received in the New England region; however, this trend was not seen in the western or southern regions of the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Using two large national claims registries, we have demonstrated trends over time and substantial geographic variation in the type of primary treatment used for localized prostate cancer. Specifically, there has been a large increase in the use of newer technologies (that is, laparoscopic-assisted prostatectomy and intensity-modulated radiation therapy). These results elucidate the need for improved data collection on prostate cancer treatment outcomes to reduce unwarranted variation in care

Cord pilot trial - immediate versus deferred cord clamping for very preterm birth (before 32 weeks gestation): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Preterm birth is the most important single determinant of adverse outcome in the United Kingdom; one in every 70 babies (1.4%) is born before 32 weeks (very preterm), yet these births account for over half of infant deaths. Deferring cord clamping allows blood flow between baby and placenta to continue for a short time. This often leads to increased neonatal blood volume at birth and may allow longer for transition to the neonatal circulation. Optimal timing for clamping the cord remains uncertain, however. The Cochrane Review suggests that deferring umbilical cord clamping for preterm births may improve outcome, but larger studies reporting substantive outcomes and with long-term follow-up are needed. Studies of the physiology of placental transfusion suggest that flow in the umbilical cord at very preterm birth may continue for several minutes. This pilot trial aims to assess the feasibility of conducting a large randomised trial comparing immediate and deferred cord clamping in the UK. Methods/Design: Women are eligible for the trial if they are expected to have a live birth before 32 weeks gestation. Exclusion criteria are known monochorionic twins or clinical evidence of twin-twin transfusion syndrome, triplet or higher order multiple pregnancy, and known major congenital malformation. The interventions will be cord clamping within 20 seconds compared with cord clamping after at least two minutes. For births with cord clamping after at least two minutes, initial neonatal care is at the bedside. For the pilot trial, outcomes include measures of recruitment, compliance with the intervention, retention of participants and data quality for the clinical outcomes. Information about the trial is available to women during their antenatal care. Women considered likely to have a very preterm birth are approached for informed consent. Randomisation is close to the time of birth. Follow-up for the women is for one year, and for the children to two years of age (corrected for gestation at birth). The target sample size is 100 to 110 mother-infant pairs recruited over 12 months at eight sites. Trial registration: ISRCTN21456601, registered on 28 February 2013

Self-Reported Mental Health Problems Among Adults Born Preterm : A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT: Preterm birth increases the risk for mental disorders in adulthood, yet findings on abstract self-reported or subclinical mental health problems are mixed. OBJECTIVE: To study self-reported mental health problems among adults born preterm at very low birth weight (VLBW; DATA SOURCES: Adults Born Preterm International Collaboration. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that compared self-reported mental health problems using the Achenbach Young Adult Self Report or Adult Self Report between adults born preterm at VLBW (n = 747) and at term (n = 1512). DATA EXTRACTION: We obtained individual participant data from 6 study cohorts and compared preterm and control groups by mixed random coefficient linear and Tobit regression. RESULTS: Adults born preterm reported more internalizing (pooled beta =.06; 95% confidence interval.01 to.11) and avoidant personality problems (.11;.05 to.17), and less externalizing (-.10;-. 15 to-. 06), rule breaking (-.10;-. 15 to-. 05), intrusive behavior (-.14;-. 19 to-.09), and antisocial personality problems (-.09;-. 14 to-.04) than controls. Group differences did not systematically vary by sex, intrauterine growth pattern, neurosensory impairments, or study cohort. LIMITATIONS: Exclusively self-reported data are not confirmed by alternative data sources. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reports of adults born preterm at VLBW reveal a heightened risk for internalizing problems and socially avoidant personality traits together with a lowered risk for externalizing problem types. Our findings support the view that preterm birth constitutes an early vulnerability factor with long-term consequences on the individual into adulthood.Peer reviewe

Single-nucleotide polymorphism associations with preterm delivery: a case-control replication study and meta-analysis

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to replicate single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with preterm birth (PTB; birth at MethodsSpontaneous PTB cases and controls were selected from an existing cohort. Candidate SNPs were taken from an existing genotype panel. A systematic review was conducted for each SNP in the panel to determine suitability as a PTB candidate. Those with significant associations previously reported in Caucasians were selected for replication. Candidate SNPs were already genotyped in cases and controls and clinical data were accessed from state perinatal and cerebral palsy databases. Association analysis was conducted between each SNP and PTB, and meta-analysis was conducted if there were ≥ 3 studies in the literature. Maternal and fetal SNPs were considered as separate candidates.ResultsA cohort of 170 cases and 583 controls was formed. Eight SNPs from the original panel of genotyped SNPs were selected as PTB candidates and for replication on the basis of systematic literature review results. In our cohort, fetal factor V Leiden (FVL) was significantly associated with PTB (odds ratio (OR): 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31-5.17), and meta-analysis confirmed this association (OR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.15-6.4).ConclusionReplication and meta-analysis support an increased risk of PTB in Caucasians with the fetal FVL mutation.Michael E. O’Callaghan, Alastair H. MacLennan, Gai L. McMichael, Eric A. Haan and Gustaaf A. Dekke

Dvopulsni sustav za isporuku amoksicilina: Pokušaj sprečavanja bakterijske rezistencije na antibiotike

Bearing in mind the present scenario of the increasing biological tolerance of bacteria against antibiotics, a time controlled two pulse dosage form of amoxicillin was developed. The compression coating inlay tablet approach was used to deliver the drug in two pulses to different parts of the GIT after a well defined lag time between the two releases. This was made possible by formulating a core containing one of the two drug fractions (intended to be delivered as the second pulse), which was spray coated with a suspension of ethyl cellulose and a hydrophilic but water insoluble agent as a pore former (microcrystalline cellulose). Coating of 1 up to 5 % (m/m) was applied over the core tablet, giving a corresponding lag of 3, 5, 7 and 12 h. Increasing the level of coating led to retardation of the water uptake capacity of the core, leading to prolongation of the lag time. Microcrystalline cellulose was used as a hydrophilic but water insoluble porosity modifier in the barrier layer, varying the concentration of which had a significant effect on shortening or prolongation of the lag time. This coated system was further partially compression coated with the remaining drug fraction (to be released as the first immediate release pulse) with a disintegrant, giving a final tablet. The core tablet and the final two pulse inlay tablet were further investigated for the in vitro performance.Zbog sve učestalije pojave rezistencije bakterija na antibiotike, razvijen je dvopulsni sustav s vremenskom kontrolom za isporuku amoksicilina. Sustav čine slojevite tablete s obloženim slojem dobivenim metodom kompresije, koji omogućavaju isporuku lijeka u dva pulsa u različite dijelove gastrointestinalnog trakta, s utvrđenom odgodom između dva oslobađanja. Ovakav način oslobađanja postignut je s pripravkom koji u jezgri tablete sadrži jednu frakciju lijeka (koja se oslobađa kao drugi puls), a u oblozi drugu. Obloženi dio dobiven je sprejanjem sa suspenzijom etilceluloze i hidrofilnog, ali vodonetopljivog sredstva koji tvori pore (mikrokristalinična celuloza). Oblaganje sa slojem koji čini 1 do 5 % (m/m) mase jezgre postignut je vremenski odmak drugog pulsa od 3, 5, 7 i 12 h. Povećanjem mase obložnog sloja smanjuje se kapacitet prodiranja vode u jezgru tablete, što produljuje vrijeme drugog pulsa. Mikrokristalinična celuloza uporijebljena je kao hidrofilno, vodonetopljivo sredstvo za kotrolu poroznosti u barijernom sloju. Promjena koncentracije celuloze značajno je utjecala na skraćenje ili produljenje vremenskog odmaka. Obloženi sustav je potom djelomično obložen s preostalom frakcijom lijeka (koja se oslobađa odmah u prvom pulsu) pomiješanom s dezintegratorom. Tableta s jezgrom i dvopulsna slojevita tableta ispitivane su in vitro

Finite element analysis of monolithic solid oxide fuel cells

This paper investigates the stress and fracture behavior of a monolithic solid oxide fuel cell (MSOFC) currently under joint development by Allied Signal Corporation and Argonne National Laboratory. The MSOFC is an all-ceramic fuel cell capable of high power density and tolerant of a variety of hydrocarbon fuels, making it potentially attractive for stationary utility and mobile transportation systems. The monolithic design eliminates inactive structural supports, increases active surface area, and lowers voltage losses caused by internal resistance

Variations in Multiple Birth Rates and Impact on Perinatal Outcomes in Europe

Objective Infants from multiple pregnancies have higher rates of preterm birth, stillbirth and neonatal death and differences in multiple birth rates (MBR) exist between countries. We aimed to describe differences in MBR in Europe and to investigate the impact of these differences on adverse perinatal outcomes at a population level. Methods We used national aggregate birth data on multiple pregnancies, maternal age, gestational age (GA), stillbirth and neonatal death collected in the Euro-Peristat project (29 countries in 2010, N = 5 074 643 births). We also used European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) data on assisted conception and single embryo transfer (SET). The impact of MBR on outcomes was studied using meta-analysis techniques with random-effects models to derive pooled risk ratios (pRR) overall and for four groups of country defined by their MBR. We computed population attributable risks (PAR) for these groups. Results In 2010, the average MBR was 16.8 per 1000 women giving birth, ranging from 9.1 (Romania) to 26.5 (Cyprus). Compared to singletons, multiples had a nine-fold increased risk (pRR 9.4, 95% Cl 9.1–9.8) of preterm birth (<37 weeks GA), an almost 12-fold increased risk (pRR 11.7, 95% CI 11.0–12.4) of very preterm birth (<32 weeks GA). Pooled RR were 2.4 (95% Cl 1.5–3.6) for fetal mortality at or after 28 weeks GA and 7.0 (95% Cl 6.1–8.0) for neonatal mortality. PAR of neonatal death and very preterm birth were higher in countries with high MBR compared to low MBR (17.1% (95% CI 13.8–20.2) versus 9.8% (95% Cl 9.6–11.0) for neonatal death and 29.6% (96% CI 28.5–30.6) versus 17.5% (95% CI 15.7–18.3) for very preterm births, respectively). Conclusions Wide variations in MBR and their impact on population outcomes imply that efforts by countries to reduce MBR could improve perinatal outcomes, enabling better long-term child health